Well, I guess, if you lose, you lose the cups… when you win, you get the cups. Sorry, I won against myself, so I can only speculate about losing. But it would be the logical thing to happen… in a totally unlogical world, I know. 
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hmm, wondering about this now… as I recall, it was an outpost in my case as well. Perhaps it is code that only applies to outposts - otherwise, more players should have run into their Doppelgänger, taking the multitude of players into account. Or perhaps, some people just didn’t notice…
@Artemis1978 - where did you run into your Doppelgänger? Was it a normal raid or was it an outpost?
The troops need to be (almost) the same and be leveled to the same level. That increases your imaginary calculation by a lot 
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Completely forgot about troops. Let me revise my pseudo-calculations… hold on…
New estimate of the odds: 1 in a gazillion.
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thanks for the reply - throws theory out the window
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