[Math] Start your engines or Probability, Seeding, Opponent Pool

Subject
[Math] Start your engines or Probability, Seeding, Opponent Pool

Starting Bonus

Beta rumor is it is based on the Grade of the defense so it could be 3* heroes as long as defending against 1* attackers. But attackers and defenders that have already attacked or defended are worth more - no one is really sure - or conversely LESS - the less part people seem pretty sure about.

Waiting for the less people’s complaints to hit in about 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM UTC.

After you, no no after you

If rumors are true we are probably seeing people in one time zone using all their Day 1 Tourney energy before 99% of the entrants have attacked once or defended once.

NASCAR just had to change a qualifier rule because literally no one wanted to be the first to start due to the disadvantage of being in front.

4* Rule

I was actually surprised they did not start with 3* Heroes as the rule.

Seeding

It would be interesting to know if each Tourney is a 1000 seed or if it is based on past Tourney performance or based on the Frankenstein’s Monster of an equation they built for Alliance War.

Since Devs do not split the Raid Arena into Seasons, and Alliance War never used Elo based math, the Devs have not had to deal with initial seeding.

There are multiple ways they can deal with this, but considering their final choice on war matching I would not put money on which choice.

Welcome to live server Beta

Two problems with Beta program is small pool versus live server and most Beta testers are Diamond arena ( this is typical because they play the game the most, understand it the most and have most of the heroes).

Entrance fee

The interesting thing is this starting result could have been mitigated by an entrance fee since many weaker players would have self selected out of 4*.

Tourney energy

I fact to get the best results, an entrance fee and a requirement to use all 20 Tourney energy to receive any loot would be required.

See again NASCAR for humans gaming the participation system by shuffling drivers and cars.

But as the forum had shown, the backlash would be huge.

Start of Day 3

This should settle out by the start of Day 3. Rumor has it defense grade is cumulative across all four days.

But in Beta there was no draw back to spending Beta gems - you get infinite - so that is going to have an interesting effect if attacking is any part of the Bonus.

Qualifier Day

Since the Devs seem to want a Weekly Tournament they could move the start to Tuesday and replace one of the rest days with a qualifier day. The points do not count for your final score, but they do establish your initial Seeding.

Better yet would be 2 qualifier days but I do not see the Devs going with even 1 qualifier day.

-=

6 Likes

I will have my brother wait out till the end of the day. I imagine the early birds getting randomly matched with people that have not scored is causing part of the grief.

I was like everyone else and blew my hits right away lol.

I did my attacks all at once an hour or so after it launched. My first opponent had 100 difficulty. The other 4 were less, averaging 54. No relationship between difficulty assigned and their TP, which ranged from around 1150 to 2250. If change in difficulty has to do with won/lost defenses, I’m not sure how much has really happened. I and some others still haven’t been attacked even once. Hypothesis: difficulty could be affected by the player’s attack record (too).
Also, when out of flags it displays message that refill is available.

I wasn’t meaning that team power would affect the difficulty.

I was meaning that tournament score would influence the score. Example. Highest difficulty would be the team currently in first. The lowest difficulty would be the team in last.