I think your answer is here. Not that it makes it any better, but your higher success rate is balancing out the extra flags. Your margin of loss was about 100 points. We’ve be blown out by 1000 points due to “fair” matchmaking with alliances of the same number of opponents who have much more higher defences than what we have.
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I get that part, but I guess we will never know for sure was it completely a fair measure of the power gap or not. Especially given the fact that it was a rush war in which everything is possible… Oh well. The algorithm had the last word and it is what it is. 
We’ve won a few matches we shouldn’t have won because the opposing alliance didn’t use all their flags. While I don’t think the matching algorithm directly takes that into account, it does affect the win-loss history. So, an alliance that frequently doesn’t use all their flags may under-perform against their potential and gets matched with an alliance that over-performs. I’m not saying that’s what happened here, but it’s one of those things that I suspect happens now and then. Of course, under the above situation, you get unlucky and the opponent decides to get their act together and everyone uses their flags and it’s a massacre.
In your original post, you did mention the potential perfect scores; however, didn’t compare the defenses. For example, is it really likely that the opponent is going to get perfect scores if your average defense is higher than theirs? I’m guessing that’s the case, based on the difference in success rate.
Personally, I find that 100 point spread does indicate a fairly good match, but you really don’t know until the end. And it’s frustrating during the war. I know a couple of occasions where we were overmatched and completed our flags and expected to lose, but then the high level defence players start their attacks and they start throwing out 0s across the board, or hitting our weakest defenses.
I had a conversation with the support about this topic - in the end, we have to trust them that they know what they are doing. Obviously there is some metric behind it and there’s no way for us to assess if it’s a good one or not. It is given.
P. S. It is us who are struggling with flags lately, that was the 4th loss in a row. 
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We recently had 6 losses in a row… before that 4 wins in a row, and currently on a 2 win streak. Of course, we only won the first of the 2 win streak because the opponent left 5 flags on the field. If they used them, they would have have won. In the middle of the 6 loss streak we got killed by 1000 once or twice, and in the last loss, the opponent just tanked their last flags to avoid running up the score.
Speaking of which, is there any insight on whether the win-loss spread affects the war score? I assume not as I don’t recall anyone ever mentioning that as a factor, but intuitively, you would think so…
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No idea. To be completely honest I never thought about it before, because it wasn’t that obvious difference. Probably I wouldn’t notice now if it didn’t feel like we are doing better but somehow still losing. 
Our loses (except this one) are entirely on us. Looks like people a starting to struggle with commitment… All of them are the long term members and after they realised they costed us a win all of them decided it’s time to move on to something else. A bit sad picture. 
Like this:
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Yeah, we’re seeing something similar. But for wars, we have a policy that people should opt out of next war if they miss flags, so that does decrease that from happening. However, we’ll have one or two still miss a flag. It’s more obvious with titans as we have lots of 0s being thrown. I think people are starting to get tired of the game, but that’s another discussion topic.
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This just happened last week to my alliance and we lost by 600 points being they had 6 extra flags and teams worth 10 more than ours on avg . Those flags were worth like 500 max , while we also had a point deficiency per team the whole time, what should have been a fairly even war turned into an unfair , total lopsided battle. If we had the extra point distribution to counter the extra flags I’d have still enjoyed battling .
Good afternoon:
I would like to report an error that occurred in the alliance wars today, August 14, 2022. (Attached file, for your verification) I want Inform, that we’re the alliance “La Posada de las Ánimas”, that as you can see in the attached file, we are 18 participating members in it, and on the other hand, our opponent has 19 players, creating an imbalance of 12 flags in battle (6 flags more for them vs 6 flags less for us). You will also be able to observe that an opposing member left the alliance, becoming a “former member”, but this player used his 6 flags, also counting the points in the war. I beg you please fix this bug, and compensate our alliance for the damage caused to the fun.
Thank you very much
Bishop
@Dudeious.Maximus topic to merge: [master] War opponent has more players (Uneven players on battlefield)
@Anksunamum If you want compensation (which is very unlikely but good luck), you have to go through player support. You will find it in the game’s options. You won’t get anything in-game from the forum.
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The ex member is just his name. I have seen the same thing in about one out of ten alliance wars. Always tricks somebody in our alliance and apparently tricked your whole alliance. Kind of amusing!
I’m not sure whats going on but my Alliance’s current war is bugged or cheating? We are a small Alliance with 3 total players and somehow the game matched us up against an Alliance with 4 teams on the battlefield. Enemy not only gets 6 additional flags against us, but our teams are worth more points as well. We literally cannot win unless the enemy doesn’t use all flags. How is this fair?!
Most likely there was odd number of alliances with 3 or 4 players so one of them had to be paired with alliance that had 1 more/less member. It happens, not a bug but it sucks, especially in small alliances.
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This is normal for non 30/30 wars. I have been paired with 2. A buddy doing solo war, was paired with 3.
There’s no guaranteed equality for team quantity when it’s not a 30/30 war.
It’s not fair but that’s the system.
Yet again our little Alliance of 4 has faced 5 teams in War. All but impossible to win - clearly the opposing team in essence gets 6 extra hits - in this specific War, taking the opposition’s lowest valued team (we’ll name Team 5) placed said team on battlefield, however, looking at their Alliance, they do possess a far superior team which shows in accumulated War points for them, taking out all 4 (3 being over 5k team power & 4th very near) of our teams each with 1 hit - great strategy for 5 v 5 - obviously all involved are unaware that it would be 5 v 4 until the moment war begins.
Post some screenshots of your team and theirs so we can see what’s really happening. There probably a good reason for the matchmaking. Chances are the alliance you’re facing lost a lot of wars, don’t use all their flags, have weak rosters, etc. You never know but the screenshots will tell a better story. Lastly, having 6 extra hits may not be much of an advantage as you think especially if the other team have weak players. Remember, you only see the defense. The bench could be ■■■■ poor.
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This occurs quite often, when one alliance on the battlefield has one more defence team than their opponents…
Matchmaking includes the alliance member rosters for those checking into war…
Your alliance member rosters will have been considered more powerful than the opponents hence the match and war flag differences
Good luck in your battle
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It is not only 6 extra hits, buy also each their hit gives 20% more points, as both sides are worth the same points (~1500).
It is 17% more attacks, each one worth 20% more points. In total, they have a 50% advantage!
The smaller team has 24 attacks, that means they can reset the board 4 times and kill 4 additional enemies - that means their max war result is around 7200.
The bigger team has 30 flags, so they can reset the board 7 times and kill half of the remaining team - so their max war result is about 11250.
This is HUGE advantage.
To make chances equal, the point value of the smaller alliance should be scaled down by the (Smaller alliance size/bigger alliance size)^2. In this case, the smaller alliance should be worth not 1500 points, but 1500*(4/5)^2 = 960 points.
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Unfortunately, it is pretty much a given that SOMEBODY is going to have a mismatched war in every iteration, given that there’s about a 50% chance of there being an odd number of alliances with that size. It’s going to happen statistically more often to very small alliances because there are less of them. If there are, say, 15 4-man alliances, then every 8 wars or so, you are going to be matched with a 3-man or 5-man alliance.
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Your argumentation would only be correct if both sides had the same rosters.
Since we dont know the rosters we cannot say how fair or unfair the match is.