[Master] - Are talent odds fake? -- Excessive Dodge/ Revive/ Resist etc

I’ve noticed several times that the real talent odds seem to be much higher than the hero card says. Today again, Boldtusk with 12% revive chance revived three times. Odds for that are 0.120.120.12=0.001728, that’s 0.17% or 1.7 in a thousand.
And this was certainly not the first time I’ve noticed talents activating several times even with the slimmest odds. I’ve played about 1000 raid matches.

Have other players noticed this too, and is there something I’m missing?

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Yes.

3 to 5 consecutive revives
paladin shield almost every time

All the others seem to be okay, bypass, minions and mana resist happen sometimes like expected.

I’m fine with it, since my Boldie often rezzes himself 2 or 3 times on att, too.

But:
Defenses seem to have much higher odds to cast talent abilities.

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I’m convinced the defense heroes get a boost in their talent % chances, but most will just call it confirmation bias. I once saw a Kingston revive 11, yes ELEVEN, times on me.

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I don’t have solid proof, but I have noticed Joon is blocking A LOT of status effects.

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Can you remember Kingstons’s talent level or odds? If it was the maximum 30%, the chance of that happening is 1.7 in a million.

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A few days ago an opponents Tootie rezzed his whole team at once @20% chance each.

It is like it is. Hopefully my def also cast their talents more often than expected.

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I’ve seen my BT revive several times. Either the odds are not entirely accurate? Or Boldtusk is really just that awesome. I like to believe the latter. Dude looks like he’s fully capable of digging himself out of his own grave at any time. :grin:

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Yes the system is what it is and it is same for us all.

But what ■■■■■■ me off is that they are (possibly) showing us wrong numbers on which we base our decisions how to use our limited resources. It’s better to show no information at all than false information.

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Eek! No, I wouldn’t go that far. I’d rather things happen more often than they’re supposed to, vs. less often. When they post 1.3% chance to pull a hero… alright, fair enough, that’s a really crappy rate… if I beat it? Cool. If I do 100 summons and get nothing? Well, at least I was warned.

Whereas… if they don’t post odds at all…

5* heroes could drop to a 0.00001% summon rate.
Enemy heroes could revive at a 99% rate, while your own heroes revive almost never.

At least by posting a number - whether it’s entirely accurate or not - they’re giving us something to judge our own results against. Versus no posted odds… basically the game just does whatever, whenever, and we can’t complain because they never promised anything in the first place. That, to me, sounds even scarier than the system that is already in place.

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It was a +20 Kingston…so 30% chance each time.

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Ok, let me rephrase that. It’s better to show no numbers at all than false numbers. They could for example describe the odds with words (slim, moderate, high or what ever).

Posting false numbers would undermine the whole game system. It begs the question, what numbers in the game can we trust to be real? Boldtusk’s max attack is 588 but what if it isn’t that? We think we are making rational decisions but in reality we are driving blind.

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I understand what you mean, completely. I personally think the game deceives us on a regular basis in many ways. When it comes to stuff like PVP (raids, wars, etc.) or titan hits? I think the game largely “decides” for us whether we’re meant to win or lose, get good boards, good damage etc. or not. People like to pretend that the game is all about “skill”. It’s not. It’s really not. I mean sure, there’s an elementary level of skill involved, in figuring out how to move tiles around - like if I move X tile to the left, I could set up a blue combo, but if I move it to the right, I could set up a green combo, etc.

But none of us have any control over what tiles will come up to replace those tiles once they’re gone. Whereas enemy defense teams are going to automatically charge their mana regardless of what color tiles are on the board. Stuff like that just kind of erases the whole “skill” aspect entirely. It’s mostly a game of RNG. And RNG does whatever it feels like doing on any given day. If that means enemy AI targeting your healer or attack booster, or enemy heroes reviving 10 times in a row… or I do 2-3 summon pulls in a row and get all vanilla 3* heroes… every time that kind of stuff happens to me, I just figure “game obviously doesn’t want me to win today”. :roll_eyes: :man_shrugging:

For the most part, yes, we are driving blind. We have no control over the boards, the RNG, any of that. All we can control is the heroes we have and which ones we decide to bring. Then yeah, limited control over the tiles themselves, but as I said… sometimes, the tiles just aren’t there, and there’s not a damn thing you can do about it. You can kill 4/5 of the enemy’s team, but the fifth one is a reviver hero, and suddenly the entire team comes back to life with fully charged mana and heal themselves back to new again as if you never even touched them (this actually happened to me the other day). Again… not a damn thing you can do about that. Driving blind… sometimes E&P wipes out the bridge ahead of you and you’re just going to fail no matter what you try to do.

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I fought several fighter class heroes in raids, but none of them seem to revive like Boldtusk.
It happen to me that several times he revive multiple times (more then once 6 times in a row, today even 7) or simply he keeps revive until his special is avalaible.

I can’t say for sure it is a bug, and this topic is to track what other players feels about it.

For me the “quantity” of his revive skill is totally out of odds and statistically almost impossible, and this lead me to think there’s something wrong.

If nothing is wrong, i would propose a “cap” on the revive skill (something like 4 revives in a row).

Fighter skill in raid is already quite good, it doesn’t need to turn in a loop.

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I would love to see a video of it :scream: Never happens with my BT :joy:

Only for defence, never in attack :grin:

But i don’t use much Boldtusk anymore, and that few times he usually don’t die.

I agree that revive is both amazing and annoying, depends on what side you are on.

But I personally do not think we should cap it. If we capped it, how about other talent skills such as dodge? Just my 2 cents.

Agreed. And as a defender, his revive chance seems to be 100% when at full mana. Oddly, though, Magni seems to be the complete opposite, at least in my experience. He’s constantly reviving for me as an attacker but seldom does so on the opponent’s side, and I’ve had him for a LONG time now, being my very first 5* pull.

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It never occur to me to have more then 2 dodge in a row.
If you have such occurence then yes, i would even cup dodge to 3 or so.

Barbarian bleed or sorcerer delay has a natural cap for istance (which is the number of heroes on the ground) and can’t influence a raid as much as dodge or revive.

So it would be “fair” to put a cap on them to make them more in line with other classes.

Let’s say it: even capped that skills would still be better.

But for now, just asking if it’s only me having this problem with Boldtusk, as it could still be a coincidence.

A really rare one, but still that.

Thank you for your input.
I noted the same thing.

Magni (same as Elena) have a much lower chance to revive compared to Boldtusk.

I think it’s because people usually have more emblem levels into boldtusk, a 4*, than into Magni or Elena, 5*s.

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