Knights of Avalon Event Summon Results Megathread

I haven’t had the pleasure of getting him yet. Although the damn hidden blades and all my reds he would put me back a bit. Nat, BT, Lance, Kelile, Falcon, Scarlet

So I am hoping for Sonya next time I go for a pull.

I don’t remember my pulls from last Avalon, but here’s from last weekend:

60 pulls

5* normal: Obakan, Leonidas, Elkanen
4* normal: 11x
3* normal: 38x

5* event: Morgan Le Faye, Guinevere
4* event: 4x Merlin, 2x Lancelot

HotM: 1x

nice chef! 6 five -stars for 60 pulls…

I did 2 10x and 5 single Pulls

1st 10x
3*: 9
4* Caedmon

2nd 10x
3*: 9
4*: Melendor

single pulls:
Lance, 3*, Guin(my first 5*), 3* ,3*

After reading all the results here I am feeling kinda lucky xD

2 pulls: 1 Grimm and 1 arthur

Sorry for the delay, it’s been a crazy month for me.

I tallied up all the data from this thread and got the results below. Keep in mind this data has reporting bias, so it’s hard to say how truly accurate it is. I tried to exclude data from posts that had text that indicated bias (e.g. “I did 30 pulls, got 4 duplicate 4* and no 5* and no event heroes, what a joke!” and “3 pulls and I got King Arthur, feeling lucky”). I also excluded ones that were missing full data (e.g. “50 pulls, 2 5*, 2 4* event but I didn’t count total 4*”). Even trying to correct for this, there is always bias in self-reported data so take the odds with a grain of salt. This also assumes odds are the same for everyone, which may or may not be true.

_Chance for any 4*_ ~ 23%

  • Chance for regular 4* ~ 16.6%
  • Chance for event 4* ~ 6.3%

_Chance for any 5*_ ~ 3%

  • Chance for regular 5* ~ 1.8%
  • Chance for event 5* ~ 1.2%

_Chance for HOTM*_ ~ 1.2%

So, using these odds it would take an average of ~82 pulls to get any of the three 5* event hero. Keep in mind it is random, so it’s possible to do hundreds of summons and not get any (and also possible to get one with only a few). Assuming the odds for each 5* event hero are equal, an average of 246 pulls would be needed to get a specific 5* event hero. In terms of gems (assuming 10 pulls, 260/pull), 21,320 for any event 5*, 63,960 for a specific one).

HOTM odds were the same as event 5*, ~82 pulls to expect one. I would love to hear from others on if they think this seems right. I would have guessed HOTM odds were a bit better. I think we need to start collecting data on HOTM odds in regular/elemental summons to see if HOTM odds are reduced in event pulls.

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How many total pulls do the odds represent for 4/5* HOTM and Event pulls? Thanks for doing this!

1382 total pulls. However, some people did a lot of pulls and reported no HOTM, which leads me to think they didn’t report it. Excluding those I get 1.6% HOTM odds on 1187 pulls. Aggregate self reported data admittedly isn’t the most accurate due to bias, but unless someone wants to pay for 1000 pulls alone it’s the best we can do. However, if non event odds are more like 3% for HOTM, we should be able to see that in the data.

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I wouldn’t bet money that people were getting HotM and not reporting them. My results on those were pretty bad for the last two months - I only got 1 Delilah in the whole period, despite a lot of draws.
This month I got Alasie in my first 10× elemental pull though.

Those odds do seems pretty much of what was to be expected. Don’t know whst expect about the HOTM though, so can’t say anything about that.
The results indicate that there is some weight on event heroes, right? Atleast with 5* the amount of event heroes is high considerin how much normal 5* there is.

(1) 10x Event Summons for each account

Main Acct
3* - 8
4* - 1 (Merlin)
5* - 1 (Guinevere)
HOTM - 0

Happy to get Merlin, this is my 2nd Guinevere

Alt Acct
3* - 7
4* - 3 (Wu Kong, Caedmon, Kasdhrek)
5* - 0
HOTM - 0

Due to the lack of italian’s flag badge I did two summons:

Tyrum
Balthazar

More over 150 pulls:

1x Guinevere :grinning:
1x Magni
1x Domitia
1x Leonidas
1x Drake Fong
1x Vivica
3x Sir Lancelot
4x Merlin
rest 3* and 4*

No King Arthur/ MLF

Single pull. Bloody Karil and Drake Fong

2 Likes

50 pulls
3 lancelot
9 4* (3 caedmon, skittles, 3 boril, liu xi, hu tao)
1 hotm

1x10
Sir Lancelot, Hu Tao, Gormek, Rigard and rest 3’s

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3 10x pulls
1 Sir Lancelot
1 Merlin
1 Quintus
The rest were some boring 4* and 3* heroes

20 pulls 1 hotm and merlin, all other 4* were fed.

20 pulls

3* - 15
4* - 4
4* event - 1 (Merlin)
5* - 0

No HOTM

Didn’t you get greg on one token last time?