and some people get double bonus HOTMs in a single pull. it is all luck.
3 Horghall
Atlantis 0,9% over 1,3% Delilah
Avalon
Atlantis again over 1,3% GM
I hate his dumb face. If only I could burn him to ashes.
True, at least no data I am aware of. And regarding my TC20: I always got more slow heroes than fast ones from it. But less than 10 heroes is really not a sample size I’d base any assumptions upon.
And already @ThePhilosopher’s and @nevarmaor’s results don’t support the pattern I could observe on my TCs so far.
And regarding Summon Portals, what this thread is about, I think if there were really higher odds to get the bad legendaries, people would have noticed already… And my summons also tell a different story.
Well, we know it’s only pseudo-random in any case, so it’s possible that patterns exist for individual players. You could imagine those patterns being randomly distributed among the player base, and have things look random at a population level but not be random at all at a player level.
For instance, imagine that the rng is seeded with a unique key that’s tied to user account + server time of day. If I pull at the same time every day (tricky, but not implausible) I get the same rng sequence every day. That will still look random in the aggregate.
I mean, I don’t think they did it like that–that would be a really obvious error–but getting randomness right is actually pretty challenging, and if they’re relying on an underlying framework or system tool to do it, it’s not at all crazy to imagine that there’s something they overlooked.
1 Like
Do we really know that? From all what I know is that the majority of players don’t really understand the concept of randomness and probably never heard of the word variance. I’d really like to play some high stakes poker against some of them…
The whole subject of random is tricky as it is counterintuitive. The easiest implementation (using Occam’s Razor) is a system-wide randomizing implementation, which can lead to non-random looking occurrences for individual accounts without actually targeting them at all.
3 Likes
We do know AT BEST it is pseudo-random because technically true randomness is impossible to simulate on a computer.
1 Like
Oh, thanks for clarification. I wasn’t aware and interpreted that statement wrongly. (Like intentional manipulation of results implemented in the game code). Sorry, @TWAndrews
Still I believe that the majority of players have a misconception of randomness.
3 Likes
I think most see randomness completely wrong, as in if I have result X now then the next result must be different or it’s not random.
2 Likes
Right, and given that SGG is a gaming company and not selling an application where their rng would really be put through rigorous testing, it’s not tinfoil hat stuff to wonder if that’s the case.
Given the number of heroes and the very small chances of pulling any one of them, I’d be surprised if any but the biggest of the whales have pulled enough to conclusively test on an individual account.
I’m definitely P2P–I did 180 pulls at Atlantis this month, which was admittedly a big month for me–and I’m nowhere near the number of pulls I’d need to be able to determine if my account favors some heroes at a rate that’s far enough outside what you’d expect statistically to even warrant further testing.
But I have 8 Elenas and 0 Aslars.
Yes, and that’s pretty common in just about anyone who doesn’t have at least some exposure to probability theory and/or statistical methods.
This! I see this here all the time. I’ve seen a player demanding on the forum to change the description at the summon portal to “maybe 1.3% or less” (regardless that it could also be more, following his logic) with exactly this argument.
2 Likes
And sadly most people are not even willing to change their minds, no matter on which way you try to explain… using simple language, using practical examples… nothing works, at least that’s my experience.
2 Likes
They arent China company thou and in USaA and Europe you can pay really high fines for fraud.
Its in their best interest to show real odds, they dont need to give players 3 horgalls to make money this whole theory doesnt make sense.
I would think that they actually favour players in some summons because it would be in their interest (player hooked) but i seriously doubt it.
True, but they never claim that individual heroes of the same category have the same likelihood. If you look at the % numbers on the summon portals, it just gives odds for pulling any legendary/epic/rare and the HotM.
I definitely don’t think they do this. It would be really sketchy (and maybe illegal in some places) to claim that it was random and then have it be driven by player behavior.
I tagged a person earlier who claims to be doing a PHD in maths (and i have zero reason to doubt that claim; it’s not really the type of thing a person would lie about) and they did explain it (the ‘type’ of randomness) to me in terms that i can understand, I just can’t re-explain it!
2 Likes
My usual pulls look like this if I do single pulls. However, if I do 10-pulls I get 3x Gato, 2x Chochin, 4x Brelith, and 1x Triton. So I got that going for me.
1 Like
Sounds like most of my pulls. So don’t worry, it’s not just you. 
1 Like