Chance of a head: 50%
Chance of a tail: 50%
Add them together: 100%
Did you read the examples above about dice? The probability of a 1 or a 2 on a single roll is equal to the probability of a 1 plus the probability of a 2. This is the same situation.
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I agree with that, where we part is the idea that a 1:72 chance and a 1:48 chance equals 1:28.8 odds, that is incorrect.
It’s simple…
When you do a pull the chance of getting any hero is 100%.
The odds just clarify what hero you can get.
X% chance on a rare
Y% chance on an epic
Z% chance on a legendaric hero
Where Z consists of 2 parts. a: 1% for normal, b 1.5% for event.
So IF you pull a 5* Then it’s 40% chance it will be normal, 60% it will be epic.
The chances of pulling any 5* are 1:40.
I’m not happy with this and go back to TC20 where my chances are 1:20 to pull a 5*.
Symply math i learned on atheneum grade 2 or 3 (don’t know anymore).
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It’s not that simple, it’s actually worse which is what I’ve been getting at.
On a D6:
Chance of rolling 1: 16.6%
Chance of rolling 2: 16.6%
Chance of rolling 3: 16.6%
Chance of rolling 4: 16.6%
Chance of rolling 5: 16.6%
Chance of rolling 6: 16.6%
Add them together: 100%
Chance or rolling 1 or 2?
16.6% + 16.6% = 33.3%
Chance of rolling 3, 4 or 5?
16.6% + 16.6% + 16.6% = 50%
This is how probabilities work.
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It is true that two chances (one of 1%, one of 1.5%) equal two chances.
But if the chance is: “A 1% chance to get one kind of 5* Hero, and a 1.5% chance to get another kind of 5* Hero”, I end up with 2.5% chance at a 5* Hero (not a specific type)…
Both statements are true.
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This is the part that is incorrect. If this was true, the probabilities listed could not have summed to 100%. The fact that they did sum to 100% confirms the additive calculations are correct
You’re misunderstanding him - read again.
That’s where we could use clarification because the way the odds are laid out it really looks as though you have a 72% chance to pull a feeder a couple small chances at an epic and tiny chances at a Legendary. Each of those chances are different odds and separate from one another although they are part of the whole. You can’t just add the two together unless it is truly a 2.5% chance followed by a second 2 out of 3 roll
1.0% chance on normal
1.5% chance on event.
2.5% chance on a 5 star.
IF you pull a 5 star then the chances are 40% that 5 star will be normal and 60% that 5* will be event. (That’s what happens AFTER the system has decided you get a 5*…)
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It doesn’t say that anywhere. That is much better odds than two separate one and one point five percent chances.
Sorry, misunderstood your post. Thought you were supporting the argument that the probability of a 5* was less than 2.5%
1:72 = 1.4%
1:48 = 2.1%
1.4% + 2.1% = 3.5%, and…
1:28.8 = 3.5%
Your own calculations are demonstrating your wrongness.
So your concern is:
“I have 10 flips (of a coin). Under one system (1%), each flip gives me 1% chance per flip, non-cumulative, to get a 5*.
“Under another system (1.5%), each flip gives me a 1.5% chance per flip, non-cumulative, to get a specific 5*.
“But because I take my flips under two different systems, I cannot add the percentages together, and never the twain shall meet…”
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This was funny at first but after 40 posts or so got painful.
Op must be right and someone owes him money!
(Sarcasm but way easier than trying to help)
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I must correct myself.
Legendary normal is 1.5% instead of 1%
Legendary event is 1%. instead of 1.5%
So its no 40 normal : 60 event but 60 normal : 40 event. It doesn’t change the point, but i misread the picture op posted.
- No, it’s not. If there were two separate rolls of 1% and 1.5% then your chance of drawing a 5* hero would be
1 - 0.99 x 0.985 = 2.45%, so pretty close to 2.5%. - How do we know there are not two separate rolls? Because no one has ever reported receiving multiple heroes from one summons (HOTM aside) and if there were two separate rolls this should happen considerably more than 14% of the time (0.7 (chance of rare) x 0.2 (chance of epic)).
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Odds are odds and only meaningful before the draw. Once the draw has produced results, advertised odds can’t be used or wouldn’t matter.
If you won a jackpot with the odds 1 : 10 million, wouldn’t your percentage had become 100% and the rest’s are 0?
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