It is not 5 separate “chances” it is the odds of each item available. It is as I explained. A 1:28.8 chance is very great compared to two separate chances at 1:48 and 1:72

The chance is the same for each independent event - again, no one has ever attempted to argue otherwise. The cumulative chance *is not* the same, and is a simple function of repetition: the more repetitions, the greater the chance of success. Do you understand this?

Cumulative chance is the facade that built Las Vegas

Never ever saw a more unuseful thread like this. SG should have hide the odds further more…

Well, the greater chance of at least ONE success.

THIS is how casinos work. If I play 100 games of Blackjack, I’m likely to win some of them and lose some of them. Their goal is for me to spend more money losing than they give me for winning.

If I play the slot machine 1000 times, there’s a good chance I’ll win something some of those times; in fact, the casino wants me to win sometimes so that I keep putting money in. The more times I play, the more times I’m likely to have won at the end of the day. The casinos want to make sure that, on average, people are putting more money into the slot machines than they’re paying out.

In a normal dice with 6 faces:

Probability of getting 1 = 1/6 = 16.66%

Probability of getting 2 = 1/6 = 16.66%

Probability of getting 1 or 2 = Probability of getting 1 + Probability of getting 2 = 2/6 = 33.33%

Do you think that’s not how it works? What do you think it should be then?

Go read the odds on a sweepstakes or contest, you will find each prize has a different odd. This is the same thing here. Some people are trying to add the odds of two separate prizes when that is not how it works.

Wow you are either a serious troll or just don’t understand basic math… refusing to answer the question about the chance to get at least 1 heads after 10 flips of a coin pretty much proves troll

Let’s not call troll please. Thank you.

EDIT: Have both sides solidified? Had their say? Is the discussion finished? Please advise.

I think you should close this topic. There is one guy against the rest. We tried different ways to explain how odds work, I even showed him simple code in ruby. But this guy is stubborn and will not change his mind.

Yes, there’s nothing left to discuss, because there’s really not even any grounds for this discussion. (And that’s what I meant with Petri not going to be able to contribute in this matter - he’ll just say what already has been said, without changing anything.)

I hate the idea of closing threads before we reach some sort of consensus, and I like to think that maybe we are just not explaining things to @TylerDirtyn in a way he can understand.

If he is sincere and not trolling then he has some serious misunderstandings about how probabilities work. If we can help him to understand reality, we might actually make the world a better place.

(This is my only chance of getting into heaven. Don’t ruin it for me.)

It’s a noble thought, but I think the approach and the context is problematic.

That said, maybe someone should write a simple but solid post about basic probability (and chance and odds…). I didn’t do a forum search - I guess this has already been done…

Take this, for example. If you read the odds given for a sweepstake or contest and want to know the chance of winning one of two different prizes, you can calculate them just by adding the probabilities.

So here again, @TylerDirtyn is precisely wrong in his understanding. Maybe we can understand why, and help.

I’m not going to assume on anyone’s math skills. Y’all are miles above me. I just wonder if someone tried to explain something to me that they thought they understood—and I thought I understood—and both of us disagreed. How to come to a consensus?

If you can’t adhere to simple logic, and/or give straight answers in regards to questions to clarify your standpoint, you will not come to a consensus, and that’s pretty much what’s going on here.

Except that is exactly how it works in this circumstance. If you have a sweepstakes with a 1.0% chance of winning a Porsche 911 and a 1.5% chance of winning a Porsche Cayman with a single entry, you have an overall 2.5% chance of winning any Porsche with a single entry.

Because it’s Porsche + Porsche = Porsche. Got it!

I’m at a loss for words here. What we have is a group of people adding two numbers together that are completely separate and acting as if it is the same. It is not. Two separate one percent chances are not a two percent chance and never will be. They are separate and different. Even if those two chances are part of a pool they are still only one percent not two percent.

A one percent chance plus a one and a half percent chance equals two chances not a two and a half percent chance.