Maybe you should search for the TC20 probability tread and then you will see it is not only 5 people.
I think there is also one for HA10. 
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So it’s a million people? Or at least one percent at 10000 people doing research?
If you have 100 people that track their summons, drops and so an and they are close to the expected value that should count more than your single expereince.
Dont get me wrong…after 4 years of ftp play I dont conider me lucky but when I tracked my TC20 performance it was close to the expected 5%.
I personally dont track these things anymore because you will get what you get! 
Compared to many others RNG seems to underperform where I am concerned 
but I make do with what I have got which is at least something. 
HA10 gave me Micky and Guardian Panther so I am happy with it!
Hope your luck improves. 
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So far ive been happy and disappointed with HA10. I got mistsuko who ive always wanted i got lady locke. Even though a little old shes good for a cleanse and alof of DoT especially with franz it goes nuts.
But only costumes ivs gotten from it are 2 khagan and quintus.
Keep holding onto hope ill get something else i really wanted like krampus kage malosi etc.
Im at 63 retrain so far so technically im above the odds though the one costume was a dupe.
Its hard at times seeing some ppl getti really lucky (although im happy for them) and others that havent gotten a non s1 still over a year later.
But thats odds for you the more people use it the more the spectrum will fluctuate.
But im still happy with ha10. I wish either they’d shorten it a bit like 4-5 days or make the odds a bit better like 7% or something. It can feel extremely grindy doling out that much ham recruits and waiting a week for most likely getting something youre gonna put right back in. Although that being said when you get something good or that you want its almost better then summons (depending on who you get) i just know when i got mutsuko i was very happy and rightfully so , alot tank green flank blue and shes perfect for that… but i digress i felt like i had earned her or something. Even though the coins you get from stages or keys etc usually are earned too it just had this accomplishment feeling opposed to luck feeling.
I dunno just thinking out loud lol. But yeah would be nice if they made it take less time or made the odds a bit better for a week. That being sais its basically a 5* portal with 5% odds for a non s1 that you get free (only using in game currency or res) and that sounds pretty good when i write that down.
Good luck everyone 
hope yall get your own heros you really wanted.
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I use it all the tine had some decent luck but not recently.
Got
Ariel, kunchen who ive leveled and more. I havnt really bothered with. And a few costumes s1.
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Also have to point out that the stated odds of 5% for non-S1 hero is better than any portal. Even if the heroes may be older, they are a good addition to those who have few heroes. Sure if you are a whale who has every hero, not so useful unless you are a collector hoping to get one of those HoTM you missed.
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My HA 10 has been a total waste of time and resources. I haven’t tracked the number of trains but I know its 75+ with 0 costumes and 1 Guardian Owl.
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And not to be petty… But when k see people pulling pengi’s miki’s costume kadilen/leonidas/markana and lady of the lake… And i can’t help but think… Why does the game hate me so.
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So, it’s around 1.3%?
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Soooo…. Got any non-anecdotal evidence of this?
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HA10 is IMO very good for F2P who don’t have many 5 
.
Retraining costs only meat and recruits, something you can find on map. And you don’t lose your hero, you are guaranted to get another 5 .
When I started to use it I’ve completed my S1 roster (before it I was still missing like 1/3 of it) and chance for something without any risk is very good if you don’t have budget to do x10 pulls every event. Maybe heroes you can get from it aren’t “best meta ones” but even one special hero every few month helps players like me more than you imagine.
Brightest example - recently got Kingston from it, which was my first non-S1 green hero. And started playing at the beginning of 2019, so HA10 ended my over 3 years streak of getting no special greens.
Is Kingstone good for people who have heroes like Mother North, El Naddaha, Toxicandra good? Not so much. For me? It was blessing.
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This pretty much sums up my point, yes. Would be great if there were some prohibition against dupes, but then again, dupes of some of them would be desirable, I guess.
Until HA 10, my only non-S1 purple was Zulag, so landing both Seshat and Kageburado was huge for me. Glad to hear that your experience seems to line up with mine.
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I have Mother North as my only non-S1 green hero, so Kingston would be great. I ascended 2 Liannas as I needed some extra green firepower. Conversely, with Shrikewood, I now have 41 tonics, so I would take anything.
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I got a costume Marj, 2nd Vela & a Mad Hatter from my HA10! It’s been mostly S1 heroes ages now!..
But seeing this thread reminded me I had a hero waiting to be collected from HA10! Low & behold it’s Costume Lianna. Another I don’t have!
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Running HA10 is a no brainer. Even if not getting anything in years. About 238th retraining might be Miki or someone else awesome 
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I’m currently not running HA10 because I’m focusing on the troops
However, I think that should be a cap to get non-S1 or costumed heroes. Something like a counter from 1 to 20. If in the 19 tried you only get naked S1 heroes, the 20th would need to be a non-S1 or a costumed hero and the counter resets.
If you got a non-S1 or costumed hero before 20th try, the counter resets the same way.
So you can keep the odds and that would help FTP players.
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I ascended 2 Liannas, Kadilen plus Elkanen.
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I’ve been running HA10 since May. So far, 11 retrainings with no costumes/non-S1. Based on the odds, I’ll hopefully get something within the next 3 months. 
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Congrats. Those are some good results. Freakin’ Hatter can screw your day up in a hurry.
Players have been clamoring for a pity counter on summons for a long time. I just can’t see SGG ever doing it. I’d be in favor of it, of course.
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Very good point @Noble_Weasel , it’s Grindy and resource intensive but it still gives a shot at getting premium heroes
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