# I need Aegir

I opened many tokens, previous month and this month. Many. And I want My Aegir!

I tried to open by one. How do You think 20 tokens by one open can give result? If before it was 30 opened?

And no 5*

I need just HOTM.

I see that game change drop chance.

And I will cry at this cold night.

with 20 draws at 1.3% chance each, you have a 23% chance to get at least 1 Aegir. with 30 draws ~ 32% chance. but you never know - it took me 110 pulls to get Zeline, but I got natalya on 1 token and Drake lee on 3 tokens.

EDIT: as far as i know, the % chance per draw for HOTM hasnâ€™t changed. We werenâ€™t told before last month, but based on community data analysis, the consensus result from the data was it was between 1-2% from what I remember, which lines up with the 1.3% currently published.

5 Likes

Today i try two timesâ€¦ And i have Aegir

1 Like

This is not true. The odds will always remain at 1.3%, because each pull is a 1.3% chance out of 100%, it does not stack.

If you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance to get heads, if you flip it again, by your logic, I will have a 100% chance to get heads.

You have a 1.3% chance, every time you pull.

Good luck!

1 Like

Yes, with a single pull the chance of getting HotM is always 1,3%.

But, if you make X pulls, you are really asking the question: â€śWhat is the chance of NOT pulling one or more HotMâ€™s with all of those X pulls?â€ť which is:

( 1 - (1 - 1,3%/100%)^X ) * 100%

basically you first calculate the (1-1,3%/100%)^X *100% which is that you missed HotM with every X pulls, the opposite of that is that you got at least one HotM with X pullsâ€¦

and that will eventually start to increase to more than just the 1,3% per single pull.

Simply: there is very very small chance of actually pulling X HotMâ€™s with X pulls, bit larger change to pull X-1 HotMâ€™s with X pulls etc etcâ€¦ and above if just simplified formula of sum of all those combinations.

That (1-1,3%/100%)*100% , which is the chance of not pulling HotM with one pull, simplified is 98,7% or 0,987.

For X pulls missing HotM every time, is 98,7% in power of X, or 0,987^X.

Starting to calculate X = 1, 2 , 3 , 4 â€¦ the percentage of missing with all the pulls used just gets smaller and smaller (exponentially, which means that it get smaller faster and fasterâ€¦ than the 1,3% with one pull would mean.)

# of pulls % of zero HotM % of one-or-more HotM pulled
1 98,7000% 1,3000%
2 97,4169% 2,5831%
3 96,1505% 3,8495%
4 94,9005% 5,0995%
5 93,6668% 6,3332%
6 92,4491% 7,5509%
7 91,2473% 8,7527%
8 90,0611% 9,9389%
9 88,8903% 11,1097%
10 87,7347% 12,2653%
20 76,9738% 23,0262%
30 67,5328% 32,4672%
40 59,2497% 40,7503%
50 51,9826% 48,0174%
60 45,6068% 54,3932%
70 40,0130% 59,9870%
80 35,1053% 64,8947%
90 30,7995% 69,2005%
100 27,0219% 72,9781%
200 7,3018% 92,6982%
300 1,9731% 98,0269%
400 0,5332% 99,4668%
500 0,1441% 99,8559%
600 0,0389% 99,9611%
700 0,0105% 99,9895%
800 0,0028% 99,9972%
900 0,0008% 99,9992%
1000 0,0002% 99,9998%

Yes, there will always be a chance that you would not get HotM, it is just very small, but with large number of playersâ€¦ there likely be one that has made â– â– â– â– â– â– â–  of pulls and has not gottenâ€¦ her.

11 Likes

Not this againâ€¦ Youâ€™re misunderstanding the math behind what Dante said. A better analogy is to say you flip a coin 10 times. What is the probability that at least one of those flips results in headsâ€¦ The chances are a lot higher than the 50% of each individual flip

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EXACTLY WHAT RAN THROUGH MY HEAD.

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exactly what all the rest saidâ€¦yes each hero draw gives 1.3% chance and yes, when you do more pulls the chances arenâ€™t added together (i.e. at 10 pulls youâ€™re not guaranteed to get one), but the OVERALL % you get at least one increases with each pull. Think of it this way - if you did 10,000 pulls, do you think the odds are the same OVERALL of you ending up with HOTM as someone who does 1 pull? No.

hereâ€™s the simple example I used last time. Image you are playing a game - flipping a coin and if it comes up heads at all, you win. Tails all the time, you lose. If you flip the coin once you have a 50/50 chance. But if you flip the coin twice, your outcomes are: 1. tails + tails, 2. tails + heads, 3. heads + tails and 4 heads + heads. so 75% of the time you will win (get at least 1 heads) and 25% of the time you will lose (tails every time). So increasing your number of flips does increase the odds you will get AT LEAST ONE heads.

Now lets flip 3 coinsâ€¦the results are:
TTT
TTH
THT
THH
HTT
HTH
HHT
HHH

how many of those did you get at least 1 heads? 7 of the 8 combinations or 87.5% of the time.

Now just substitute coin flips for hero pulls and a 50% chance of getting heads for a 1.3% chance.

The numbers change, but what doesnâ€™t change is that the more times you try, the overall chance you succeed at least once does increase.

Or think of it this way - thereâ€™s a girl in your town you like and want to talk to, but the only place you see her is very occasionally at the park. What do you think will give you better odds of seeing her at the park - spending one hour a week there? or going every day for a 4-5 hour stretch? what if you just lived at the park and never slept (ie. equivalent of doing 100,000 pulls)?

4 Likes

I got him from the first war chests tokenâ€¦drawes ulmer thought lots of awfull things in myself like â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â– â–  â– â– â– â– â– â–  game and got himâ€¦hes my first fiveâ€¦use him with tao scarlett grimm and kelile/belithâ€¦my best team and im lvl 28 strongâ€¦andâ€¦hes â– â– â– â– â– â– â–  awesome if the tiles fall good,but hes dispelablle easyâ€¦nedd more att or buff speed tbh

Itâ€™s the title of the thread that baffles me!

I started playing during Aeron I think and it was only at alasie that I understood hotm.

This is the first one that Iâ€™m especially meh on. Khiona I wasnâ€™t too fussed about Cos I have a few purples, but she dropped and sheâ€™ll be great for titans so thatâ€™s kinda cool. But NEED? For aegir? Hrmm ok

Getting this post back in topicâ€¦

Honestly you donâ€™t need him as he is quite sub par in terms of being a hero of the month. You wonâ€™t see him in many if any top 100 teams. His special only effects him and near by allies and due to the short duration those heroes may never get the heal effect during the duration. Remember it only works on â€śnormal damageâ€ť which is matchup tiles, or an auto attack. This means on defence there are no tile matches and possibly no heal proc for any heroes.

Next is the life link which sounds good on paper untill your opponent stacks green and/or brings a hero that reduces arnor/defense. A stacked green team and/or a good board means your apponent can foccus on agir once the special goes off and wipe out 3 of your hearoes in 2 turns or less. Remember the damage is spread out among 3 heroes (agir himself and heroes in either side) this is not the same as Gunnar or Wilbur distributing the damage aming 5 targets balancing the load among your whole team. Only haveing 3 heroes shared health pull could potentially be devistating.

I am not saying Agir is garbage but as is and using him since October 1st when I got him I would rather use a 4* blue like boril for example over aegir.

2 Likes

At first I wanted him in my defence team, but after some time I realised that heâ€™s worst than my Marjana. Most probably Iâ€™ll get him when I look for other heroes, but he wonâ€™t get telescopes from me.