Yes, with a single pull the chance of getting HotM is always 1,3%.

But, if you make X pulls, you are really asking the question: â€śWhat is the chance of NOT pulling *one or more* HotMâ€™s with all of those X pulls?â€ť which is:

( 1 - (1 - 1,3%/100%)^X ) * 100%

basically you first calculate the (1-1,3%/100%)^X *100% which is that you missed HotM with every X pulls, the opposite of that is that you got at least one HotM with X pullsâ€¦

and that will eventually start to increase to more than just the 1,3% per single pull.

Simply: there is very very small chance of actually pulling X HotMâ€™s with X pulls, bit larger change to pull X-1 HotMâ€™s with X pulls etc etcâ€¦ and above if just simplified formula of sum of all those combinations.

That (1-1,3%/100%)*100% , which is the chance of not pulling HotM with one pull, simplified is 98,7% or 0,987.

For X pulls missing HotM every time, is 98,7% in power of X, or 0,987^X.

Starting to calculate X = 1, 2 , 3 , 4 â€¦ the percentage of missing with all the pulls used just gets smaller and smaller (exponentially, which means that it get smaller faster and fasterâ€¦ than the 1,3% with one pull would mean.)

# of pulls |
% of zero HotM |
% of one-or-more HotM pulled |

1 |
98,7000% |
1,3000% |

2 |
97,4169% |
2,5831% |

3 |
96,1505% |
3,8495% |

4 |
94,9005% |
5,0995% |

5 |
93,6668% |
6,3332% |

6 |
92,4491% |
7,5509% |

7 |
91,2473% |
8,7527% |

8 |
90,0611% |
9,9389% |

9 |
88,8903% |
11,1097% |

10 |
87,7347% |
12,2653% |

20 |
76,9738% |
23,0262% |

30 |
67,5328% |
32,4672% |

40 |
59,2497% |
40,7503% |

50 |
51,9826% |
48,0174% |

60 |
45,6068% |
54,3932% |

70 |
40,0130% |
59,9870% |

80 |
35,1053% |
64,8947% |

90 |
30,7995% |
69,2005% |

100 |
27,0219% |
72,9781% |

200 |
7,3018% |
92,6982% |

300 |
1,9731% |
98,0269% |

400 |
0,5332% |
99,4668% |

500 |
0,1441% |
99,8559% |

600 |
0,0389% |
99,9611% |

700 |
0,0105% |
99,9895% |

800 |
0,0028% |
99,9972% |

900 |
0,0008% |
99,9992% |

1000 |
0,0002% |
99,9998% |

Yes, there will always be a chance that you would not get HotM, it is just very small, but with large number of playersâ€¦ there likely be one that has made fuckton of pulls and has not gottenâ€¦ her.