How (un)lucky can you possibly get?

Let’s start of with this: I did a search on the word lucky and couldn’t find a related topic, but if it exists, please merge/whatever it is you mods do.

I was just thinking how lucky someone can get. Recently I read how @Rook got his first HotM (or any special 5* for that matter) after 3 years of playing. It made me realize that my 1 HotM after 2,5 years of playing (a lot) is not that extremely horribly unlucky. Obviously I’m F2P, so that’s my fate I guess and I was fine with that…

In the last three/four months I did around 80 pulls. I hoard gems/tokens etc. untill I see some great heroes/odds. For me this was the month of may with GM and Clarissa, Fables of Grimmforest (I just like them) and new costumes. I got nothing new. Damn. Well, just remember Rook, enjoy the game and stay positive.

Enter my alliance member. He just devestates me with extreme ridiculous luck. He is F2P, just like me. He just pulls whenever he can. No planning ahead, just pulling. He thinks he can only average 10 pulls a month, inlcuding Costume Chamber, Atlantis, Valhalla, Legends Event en Challenge Event free token pulls. In the last three months he got every HotM and Malosi twice. 4 HotM in 30 pulls… These are besides the Miki, Alberich and Black Knight he already had. This extreme side of luck on the other side of the lucky/unlucky spectrum is realy demotivating and the gap between him and Rook is just so extreme.

But it also got me thinking: How lucky or unlucky can you get? Are there players with still no HotM after daily play and more than 3 years of play? Are there F2P players with more than 50% of the HotM? How lucky or unlucky can we get? Is there an example of that 1 in a million players who doesn’t get a 5* after 200 pulls?
I was planning to find out right here :wink:

Please share your extreme luckiest/unluckiest moments/stories. Regular luck/bad luck just doesn’t cut it here.

I’m looking forward to the stories to cheer me back up :yum:

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I don’t have any personal stories of extremely bad or extremely good luck. I guess my worst luck was spending about $90 in month one or two (one year VIP + a few small and medium gem deals)… and getting no 5* heroes until 6 months into the game. :confounded: But that’s actually not that unusual.

I’ve heard plenty of good luck stories, but haven’t been able to personally verify any of them. I sometimes suspect that the so-called FTP players who pull more than half of the HotMs might be “fudging the numbers” when it comes to their actual spending habits… or maybe they really are just that lucky? IDK. I take most of those claims with a grain of salt.

Had a woman in my first alliance who claimed (quite falsely) that you “automatically” get the HotM after doing 2 or 3 summons in any given month. Or at least - she claimed that had been her own experience.

Found out later that said player was actually spending hundreds of dollars on summons every month, so…

Read on here that someone once pulled a HotM as a bonus pull on their HotM bonus pull. Certainly not impossible? But we’re talking what… 1.3% of 1.3%? That’s one very lucky player.

Read several other accounts of people getting 3-5 legendary heroes from 10 pulls… again, can’t verify any of them, as I’ve never personally witnessed anything like that.

I’m sure there are plenty of players who didn’t get a 5* after 200+ pulls… I wish I had kept track of my pulls early on, as it probably did take me nearly 200 pulls before I got my first. Unfortunately I wasn’t keeping track at the time.

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If the odds for getting a legendary hero are 2.5% per pull, if 1 million players pull 500 times, 3 of these players will not get a single legendary hero.

That is how unlucky you may get.

That’s 6 out of 1000 players, with odds 2.5%. Funny enough, that’s almost as possible as getting 12 or more legendary heroes in 200 pulls (that’s around 5 players in each 1000).

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That still means that out of 2,000,000 players, 12,000 of them will not get a 5* after 200 pulls (assuming my math is accurate).

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12k gems.

No 5*.

No 4* from s3.

No HotM.

Terrible morning.

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Luck: A cup of coffee.
Bad luck: You put salt instead of sugar in it.

Make the most fun out of what you have or get frustrated by comparing yourself with others.

Luck is neither predictable nor reliable and it’s relative to everyone based on expectations.

Expect the worst and get lucky easier.

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I haven’t quoted Kratos’s fatherly advice to his son Atreus for a while, but when it comes to the summoning system in this game.

Keep your expectations low, and you will never be disappointed.

This is especially important if you already chose and decides to stick to the F2P route.

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I spend some money for pulls, I would say my luck is average in that. But twice I had honest to God staggering luck with eht summons.
When Xmas challenge first went live, I had decided not to pay for ansummon. I intensely disliked the idea of Santas and cooks and overactive elfs in my hero team. I did have 4 eht, though, and used them. Got Mother North, Buddy, Rudolph and some 3*. Still cannot believe it. As Olmor said, do not expect it…
Only recently did I have luck again, getting Fenrir with valhalla coins, after doing one 10 pull trying to get him

That is kind of my point, I’m not realy expecting something, but ofcourse I do hope fore a nice and shiny hero. But when you hear (and see) the great luck stories, it is hard to not compare.

However, I’m still looking for the ‘I used my free 100 Atlantis coins and got Gravemaker and Bonus Clarissa in 1 pull’ kind of insane stories.

Or ofcourse the: I did a 30 pull in season 3 and got 30 season 1 3* heroes.

Full 12 months

NO NEW 5* RED

mofo…

Sometimes people are extremely lucky, and sometimes people that say they are f2p are not actually f2p.

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Well, with my very first colour chest I had an EHT, summoned and get Vivica

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That was my initial point as well. Had a few former alliance members who flat out lied to me… their rosters were far better than mine, and I asked them how much they spent to get those heroes…

“Spent? Oh, I didn’t spend anything…”

:thinking:

A month or so later:

“Well… actually, come to think of it, I did buy a few 10 pulls…”

:face_with_monocle:

And how many is a “few”?

“IDK… not a lot. Maybe a couple hundred dollars worth.”

NUhTOQ

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You will hear and see those people with single pulls of a featured hero followed by the HoTM often enough whenever there is a new summoning event, there is usually an associated thread with each of those summons that discusses the summoning results. If you want the crazy stories, you will find plenty there, because people do share their excitements. Not surprisingly, with each of those summoning results thread is the update of the “Summons are Ridiculous” thread.

As a F2P myself and not one with very good summoning luck, I learn to keep expectations low and not to compare to others who spend (which is majority of my alliance, who spends enough to at the very least be able to do a 10x pull or two each month). Some of them were actually pretty adamant about joining me at the F2P table at some point, but only to go back to their spending ways a week later.

Any way, although not as long as @Rook on the HoTM aspect, I do have 3 on my roster (Frida off of Atlantis Coins, Vela off of EHT, and Malosi off of EHT), all came from the bonus on these single pulls. But as far as 5* is concerned, in 2 and a half years, I have only managed to draw 5* directly from summon portal twice (Elena Costume off a 5 key pull, and Killhare off a EHT), the rest of my 5* are all Season 1 5* that came from TC20. Isn’t it strange none of my 5*s came from Gem pulls?

So for all those of my alliance mates who were comparing strategies on how to utilize the vast heroes of the month, seasonal, Atlantis, Valhalla, event heroes and such (and they were emblemed to the teeth too, not as quick as some of the ones we have seen that speed/power leveled, but still darned quick), do I not feel a least a bit envious? I’d be lying if I say I wasn’t. But that’s their roster and I have mine. And with that many heroes and limited resources, I am sure they have their share of problems (like who to give mats to or who would get the emblems), I don’t mind keeping my roster small and manageable, so all of the heroes on my roster, will likely get worked on and none will stay at 1^1.

As F2P you learn to use and appreciate with what you have.

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I want to share my story with you.
I am totally F2P, never bought a single gem.
I started playing in June 2019, but never got a 5 star Hero until March this year, when I got Thorne from TC20 on my last pull before definetly quit the game because I couldn’t go ahead with my bunch of 4* (I had no Rigard, no Kiril, no Wu no 4* event if not Merlin).

Meanwhile I was saving gems for Telluria by December and I reach to made a 10x pull in Atlantis and got her! So happy!
With no hero to level I had 1000 backpacks so I maxed her quickly!
From there on everything just changed: TC20 gave some 5* stars, most of them not the prettiest one like Quintus or double Isarnia. But then Joon arrived from TC20, as well as Malosi with some EHT pulls in Springvale (where I got the 3* stars rabbit and chicken with the 4* rabbit). I also got Clarissa the month after in Grimforest challenge (chasing Pixie and Hansel, got nothing)! But the big win was last Atlantis, where I got Poseidon and Seshat (really looking for her!)

Now things seems to be back on reality, got no HotM, no interesting 5* from TC20, very few ascending mats.

My strategy is to accumulate pulls until It exit some heroes I could need. Some times It works, some times It don’t.
I have saved up to 100 keys for the july pull in the chamber to get Azlar costume. I Will use EHT for Sand Empire too but After this, no pulls till Novembre for the HotM.

So never give up guys. There will be good months for everyone!

Oh, by the way, I will never use a single Valhalla coins until It will arrive the 5* red sniper!

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I’m a cheap to play - spent $38.84 in just under two years of game play with $20 of that from an alliance member - that’s another story.

Overall, my luck has been a bit above par - I always keep at least one TC20 running and two if I have no heroes I’m leveling up.

I’ve been tracking all my pulls since starting my first TC20 and have a 6.8% pull rate on 5* after 292 pulls. I have a 4% 5-star pull rate on event/element pulls (including 2 bonus HOTM).

Here’s my lucky streak.
After getting only one HOTM in my first one-year plus of playing he game and prior to tracking my pulls, last November I pulled a Neith with my last Challenge pull, then on my very next special pull in December, I pulled Grimble. The odds of back to back HOTM pulls is about 1.7 in 10,000.

But wait, there’s more.
After doing one more Seasonal, two Challenge and two Atlantis pulls in December, I waited until January for additional Seasonal pulls and pulled Santa Claus with my second pull in January; his pull rate is only like 0.3%.

So in 9 single pulls I received two HOTMs and one ultra rare Season 5-star. Pretty nice stretch.

In the roughly six months since then, I’ve pulled 119 times from various special portals - Challenge, Costume, Valhalla, Seasonal, Taverns, Atlantis - and pulled two special 5* - Fenrir from Valhalla and Margaret from Atlantis - so it definitely comes and goes.

I got my first HotM (Rafaelle) the first day of Valhalla summons with a 350gem single pull.

Playing a year or so.

How unlucky?

So far in 8 months of playing:

  • 130 pulls from portals gave me three 5 stars (2,3%) and astonishing twenty one 4 stars (16%) - 9% lower than advertised by probabilities
  • only four non season 1 4* or 5* - Sumimoto, Triton, Gravemaker, Atomos
  • no season 3 4* in about 20 pulls
  • only 3 Epic Troops from 57 ETT pulls (5,3%)

0x 5* green since dec. 2018. That is with 2x tc20 and however many pulls you can get f2p. 10 a month seems fair enough.

I have had better luck elsewhere, but this sticks out.

My experience: in 3 years i got several hotm, calling randomly. But, in the last six month, nothing. No 5* heroes from the calls, no hotm, no 5* heroes from training camp. Forthermore, in raid, war and titan, continous lack of gems or combo of useful colour… all these circumstances are very demotivating and make the game boring at the present. I think is not question lucky/unlucky, is a developers intended choice. You HAVE to spend lot of money, stop.

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