How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis


#42

I don’t think your level has anything to do with it, frankly. I’ve heard many newbies doing pulls and getting great results whilst I—an oldie—get…not much. :grin:

I can confirm that I recently got Sumitomo though when trying for Evelyn. :wink:

I think it was two 4* on a 10-pull. No 5*, the rest 3*.


#43

It’s probably just like the equation above that I’m equating the increased time I’ve pulled with number of 4*s. It’s kind of a shame, it would make sense that as you progress in the game your chance would increase for the level of heros your level associates with, which is one thing I’m excited to see the special branches come into affect. It will provide a little more complexity and layer to skill at playing the game and diversity. So even if a lot of players of the same cards, there will be more variance in how they are untilized. In this instance you could probably get away with letting more players have higher level heros from special events.


#44

tbh *5 is pain to feed as new player , better do *4 at least 2 rainbow set before do *5

i am doing 2 *5 and 3 *4 right now , *5 took forever to be done and much food needed

imo best practice are to wait tc19 before do *5 , 2 SH to go for me


#45

I’m on the edge of understanding. So it doesn’t matter if I do the 10 pull or 100 pull or 1000 pulls in a ROW necessarily, the equation has to do with the odds x #of pulls without having them all together as a factor, right? Which might explain why after months of playing I just happened to get my first 5* (Sartana) and two 4* (Boldtusk & Sonya) during Christmas week. For a moment, I thought it was just a happy Christmas! (Really, it was lovely!)


#46

I think it’s easy to over think this. It’s really a very simple and obvious phenomenon but when it’s mixed in with discussing lots of different odds, it sounds like a big deal.

The more times you do a thing, the more likely it is that you will get the right result sooner or later.

The probability of each event doesn’t get better.

The probability of it happening after several tries doesn’t get better.

Roll a dice - 1/6 chance of a six every time.

But the more times you roll the dice, the better.

You might get a six on the first roll, or the last.

It’s always 1/6 chance.

But the more times you roll, it the more likely that you will get a six eventually


#47

I totally agree with this. I’m one of those players who doesn’t spend money at all in this game and I’ve played for about 9 months? But I have a pretty good roster. No legendaries yet but I have three four stars


#48

This +100. I still don’t see how people can’t understand this. Though can we please move all the “I don’t understand math or have common sense” posts to whatever is the current “I don’t understand math or have common sense” thread is and not clutter this one up with nonsense as well? :wink:


#49

Mothers… don’t let your babies grow up and spend on E&P. It only leads to pain.

House of Empires and Puzz (house of the rising sun)

There is a house in Helsinki
They are Small Giant Games
And it’s been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God, I know, I’m one

E and P is a jailor
Sold me all these things
My wife knows I’m a gamblin man
Staring at this screen

My wife, she always looks at me
She said, hon you just can’t spend
Hon, you may roll and you go crazy
But don’t forget these words I said

And the only thing a gambler needs
Is some gems, ooh lord by the trunk
And the only time he’s satisfied
Is when he’s had a little luck

Ya-aah, the board is bad I sought, oh no
To where, I do belong
I’m wandering back
To earn my pays, in The House
They call, of Empires and Puzz

Mother tell your baby children, yea yea
Don’t do the things that I’ve done
Spend your life in sin and misery
In The House, they call, of Empires and Puzz


#50

This is a great thread, and I know there are a lot of variables, but my <$10/mo spending roster is much much luckier than the alliances that you pulled this info from. In year 1 I spent $5/mo on average and since atlantis came out its $8/mo. About at the 18-20 month mark now.

Can you guess the only deals I buy :slight_smile: I also hoard tokens and gems until I like the HOTM or the event (like Santa) heroes and purge them all there. It is how I have gotten literally all my 3 HOTM.


#51

Super helpful stats and thanks alot. I am one of those addicts of the pulls who got a heart attack when saw my credit car bill only after one month of playing. In my alliance, I cried for help on advice from those who have been playing the game for months. The design, features, variety, colors, appeal , all n all were super deceiving and I was looking at people with rate of God knows how much damage on the Titan or fully ascended heroes thinking that I should invest heavy in the beginning.
Again: Thank you


#52

You are not alone my friend…


#53

The most important thing to remember is we are not in control of the future of the game. I don’t mind buying the small offers that give me gems and ascension items but if I were to spend thousands and suddenly the company changed direction, I’d have a full roster of useless digital pictures.

I spend what I feel I can afford on a serves no purpose, time-wasting but enjoyable hobby.


#54

Thanks for putting the time in to share this information with us! I, greatly appreciate it!
Personally, my ability with the summons pulls have been less than what I desired. Sometimes it’s downright disheartening, and there is only 3*s to show for the 10 pulls multiplied by 2 or more, and only regret. Those were my early days in the game. Now that I’ve been playing, going into the middle of year 2, I don’t spend like that. I spend more on things that will help me more in the long run. Examples are when 90 Loot tickets are available for purchase; and purchasing world energy refills; mainly just purchasing gems to have them there. In my early days I would spend $100 or more per month. Now I’ve whittled that down to around $50 Or less per month, depending on if the game is in a seasonal challenge or not. I don’t spend for ascension items any more, or for hero summons that much, With the exception of an occasional troop summons I will try. I spend the most on VIP and world energy refills these days.


#55

About the probabilities - a matter of perspective.
Every single pull gives you a 1,3% chance to win the HOTM. So if you missed the first attempt the second has the same chance. This remainds me of a joke - a patient comes to a doctor for a risky operation. The doctor says - you have a 1% chance you won’t die. But please do the operation. The 99 patients before you died.
But when you do 10 pulls all at one or 30 at atlantis the chance to gey after the 10× or 30x modifies. It goes up to 32,5% on a 30× pulls.
The matter of perspective depends entirely on how many pulls you decide to do from the beggining. If you say - regardless of the results I’ll make 30 pulls then in that very moment, before you make the first pull initial chance is 32,5%. If you go 30× all at once obviously there is no other moment you can calculate another chance. But if you do pull by pull chance to get HOTM modifies with each pull (and you’d better adjust your behaviour acordingly).
This remainds me of another story.
A girl knows that she will receive in a year 10 matrimonial requests. How may she choose the better one? If you want to answer statistically than the best odds is to wait after the firsts 3 requests than to choose the next better one (it’s not an easy math calculation but it’s accurate). But the life comment would be - if one of the first 3 matches is more likely what you want from a husbant than you’d be a fool to wait for a better offer.


#56

Not reading all the posts. The OP appears to have the numbers right. However, it leaves out the odds that you get one or more HOTM.

For example, if you have two pulls the odds of getting two HOTM = 1.3% * 1.3%. A long shot for sure, but wanted to be sure it was covered.


#57

It’s actually even higher, because you can literally get 2 HOTM on one pull. The HOTM draw itself does a bonus draw if it produces a hero.


#58

Welll chances for not getting hotm stay the same, because no bonus rolls to correct for.

Maybe I should rephrase “chance hotm” to chance “at least one hotm”.


#59

Probably would help the unwary :slight_smile:. I’m always unsure of the best way to explain to people that we calculate with odds of no success because it’s far easier.

The quality entertainment comes when people ask “I just pulled 23 Evelyns. How likely is that?”


#60

It’s a wild thing to see so many people using mathematics, during my time I was beat up, called names and bulled. If you can put the stats a side for a moment. You should be spending VERY little at the beginning since there is so much to learn and understand. Take advantage of every diamond special that are pop-up’s (especially the. 99 cents). Take your time and read,read, read. Learn the game you have all the time you want. Just enjoy yourself first get comfortable and then move forward.


#61

I’d say the moment you spend 30$ or 100$ you won’t stop, so get less than that, spending 100 is like doing something you by any means should NOT do, but once it’s done and you didn’t get what you want, you start thinking what if I am 10 pulls more away from your target? Oh but Atlantis summon is 3k gems and the 30$ just gives you 2.8k so you need to spend more, but the you tell yourself, well If you know that next month you’ll spend on a new héroe then why not getting the 100$ which gives you 25% more and so on…

I’ve decided to stop after my hunt for Kage cuz I didn’t have luck at all I got around 8+ Onatels and no Kage which is suppose to have the same chances as the Hotm for being featured.

So my advice is don’t break that 30$ threshold.