# How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis

X=1-Y^n

X=Propability of a good thing happening at least once
Y=Propability of a bad thing happening (like 0.987 in case you think NOT getting the hot with a single pull is a bad thing)
n=how many times you repeat the action (like how many pulls you make)

Hence;
X=1-0.987^30
X=0.325
Chance of getting a Hotm with a 30-pull is approximately 32.5%

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Ok, gonna be kinda rude but w/e. Just my opinion & Iām maybe wrong.

I think that youāre all high.

Chance of getting the HOTM are 1.3 %, thatās all.

You can do 1 000 pulls, your chance are & will always be 1.3 %.

Thatās how I see it.

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Yes, the chances of each individual pull are the same. But if you repeat the process 1000 times, there are much better odds that one of those 1000 will be a positive result.

If you toss a coin once, the odds of heads are 50%. If you toss a coin 10 times, are the odds that you will get one head in ten 50% or much better?

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I thought the remain the same as well. I mean the more you pull at once the odds increase but the max that you can pull is 30 at a time.

The game donāt remember that youāve already pulled 90 times and increase your odds per the next 30 pulls.

Hum, youāre obviously right.

Just not sure about that maths or even if a calculations to calculate this exists

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Yes, the calculations exist. OP has helpfully done them for us.

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The odds of an individual pull never change.

The first pull is 1.3%, the thousandth pull is 1.3%

But the more pulls you do, the better chance you have of getting the right result.

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Deja vu, Gatto Baffi?

It does seem a little familiar. Should I start worrying yet?

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Thanks guys for all of your help. I do have one off topic question. This is my second day on the site. It seems rather difficult to create a new topic or send a private message to some one. How do I do this?

One of my messages was hidden because people reported it as off topic. Iām just trying to learn how to navigate. Thank you for your help.

Creating a topic is made available after youāve viewed enough posts, I believe.

Alliance recruitment posts have a specific section, otherwise any thread with an available player turns into a bun-fight.

Private messages on the forum are a moderator- only super power

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Thank you for clarifying things. We need a better way to recruit players. Itās so hard to start a new alliance and find good players. In-game chat is full of spasm of recruiting that we canāt even hold a descent conversation. Ok guys no more off topic for me.

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I think it was flagged because you did a recruitment @BlackRhinoā¦better read Forum rules first

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@BlackRhino I also can recommend this thread

To keep at Topic: even when throwing the coins thousand times there is a 50% chance that I got 1000 times headā¦so I donāt think that this calulation (even when correct maths) is good to relate to real money. People may think that they have a right to get a 5* or HOTH when spent a certain amount of moneyā¦

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I beg your pardon? I donāt think you meant that the way it reads.

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Thank you for your help. Iām new so still learning.

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Thanks for offering but i got my alliance , they supported me as new player

I havenāt spent a lot but what I have spent I track on a spreadsheet. I think doing this helps me to not spend a lot. I think if more people did this, it might help them to keep the spending in check.

Iāve gotten a few nice heroes but mostly what I get is feeders. It does not stress me out or cause me to get angry. If you are spending so much itās causing anger, then you may need to rethink your game choice.

Rememberā¦ other than having fun playing, you are not getting anything material back for your money.

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As much as it makes you happy! not frustrated!

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Is it just me or does it seem that the level you are has an impact? For instance the number of 4* heros I get from pulls is much higher now than when I was lower level in the game. Let me reiterate, more regular 4* pulls haha. I still have trouble with special heros, though I did get lucky pulled two Khionas in a row and I got Evelyn as well now and didnāt spend nearly the amount suggested. I feel the higher level you are the easier to pull higher level heros.

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