How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis


#21

X=1-Y^n

X=Propability of a good thing happening at least once
Y=Propability of a bad thing happening (like 0.987 in case you think NOT getting the hot with a single pull is a bad thing)
n=how many times you repeat the action (like how many pulls you make)

Hence;
X=1-0.987^30
X=0.325
Chance of getting a Hotm with a 30-pull is approximately 32.5%


#23

Ok, gonna be kinda rude but w/e. Just my opinion & I’m maybe wrong.

I think that you’re all high.

Chance of getting the HOTM are 1.3 %, that’s all.

You can do 1 000 pulls, your chance are & will always be 1.3 %.

That’s how I see it.


#24

Yes, the chances of each individual pull are the same. But if you repeat the process 1000 times, there are much better odds that one of those 1000 will be a positive result.

If you toss a coin once, the odds of heads are 50%. If you toss a coin 10 times, are the odds that you will get one head in ten 50% or much better?


#25

I thought the remain the same as well. I mean the more you pull at once the odds increase but the max that you can pull is 30 at a time.

The game don’t remember that you’ve already pulled 90 times and increase your odds per the next 30 pulls.

As I’m newer I don’t know but would like clarification please.


#26

Hum, you’re obviously right.

Just not sure about that maths or even if a calculations to calculate this exists :smiley:


#27

Yes, the calculations exist. OP has helpfully done them for us.


#28

The odds of an individual pull never change.

The first pull is 1.3%, the thousandth pull is 1.3%

But the more pulls you do, the better chance you have of getting the right result.


#29

Deja vu, Gatto Baffi?


#30

It does seem a little familiar. Should I start worrying yet?


#31

Thanks guys for all of your help. I do have one off topic question. This is my second day on the site. It seems rather difficult to create a new topic or send a private message to some one. How do I do this?

One of my messages was hidden because people reported it as off topic. I’m just trying to learn how to navigate. Thank you for your help.


#32

Creating a topic is made available after you’ve viewed enough posts, I believe.

Alliance recruitment posts have a specific section, otherwise any thread with an available player turns into a bun-fight.

Private messages on the forum are a moderator- only super power :slight_smile:


#33

Thank you for clarifying things. We need a better way to recruit players. It’s so hard to start a new alliance and find good players. In-game chat is full of spasm of recruiting that we can’t even hold a descent conversation. Ok guys no more off topic for me.


#34

I think it was flagged because you did a recruitment @BlackRhino…better read Forum rules first :wink:


#35

@BlackRhino I also can recommend this thread

To keep at Topic: even when throwing the coins thousand times there is a 50% chance that I got 1000 times head…so I don’t think that this calulation (even when correct maths) is good to relate to real money. People may think that they have a right to get a 5* or HOTH when spent a certain amount of money…


#36

I beg your pardon? I don’t think you meant that the way it reads.


#37

Thank you for your help. I’m new so still learning.


#38

Thanks for offering but i got my alliance , they supported me as new player


#39

I haven’t spent a lot but what I have spent I track on a spreadsheet. I think doing this helps me to not spend a lot. I think if more people did this, it might help them to keep the spending in check.

I’ve gotten a few nice heroes but mostly what I get is feeders. It does not stress me out or cause me to get angry. If you are spending so much it’s causing anger, then you may need to rethink your game choice.

Remember… other than having fun playing, you are not getting anything material back for your money.


#40

As much as it makes you happy! not frustrated! :slight_smile:


#41

Is it just me or does it seem that the level you are has an impact? For instance the number of 4* heros I get from pulls is much higher now than when I was lower level in the game. Let me reiterate, more regular 4* pulls haha. I still have trouble with special heros, though I did get lucky pulled two Khionas in a row and I got Evelyn as well now and didn’t spend nearly the amount suggested. I feel the higher level you are the easier to pull higher level heros.