How much should I spend?- HotM cost, and odds, analysis

Deja vu, Gatto Baffi?

It does seem a little familiar. Should I start worrying yet?


Thanks guys for all of your help. I do have one off topic question. This is my second day on the site. It seems rather difficult to create a new topic or send a private message to some one. How do I do this?

One of my messages was hidden because people reported it as off topic. I’m just trying to learn how to navigate. Thank you for your help.

Creating a topic is made available after you’ve viewed enough posts, I believe.

Alliance recruitment posts have a specific section, otherwise any thread with an available player turns into a bun-fight.

Private messages on the forum are a moderator- only super power :slight_smile:


Thank you for clarifying things. We need a better way to recruit players. It’s so hard to start a new alliance and find good players. In-game chat is full of spasm of recruiting that we can’t even hold a descent conversation. Ok guys no more off topic for me.

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I think it was flagged because you did a recruitment @BlackRhino…better read Forum rules first :wink:

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@BlackRhino I also can recommend this thread

To keep at Topic: even when throwing the coins thousand times there is a 50% chance that I got 1000 times head…so I don’t think that this calulation (even when correct maths) is good to relate to real money. People may think that they have a right to get a 5* or HOTH when spent a certain amount of money…


I beg your pardon? I don’t think you meant that the way it reads.


Thank you for your help. I’m new so still learning.

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Thanks for offering but i got my alliance , they supported me as new player

I haven’t spent a lot but what I have spent I track on a spreadsheet. I think doing this helps me to not spend a lot. I think if more people did this, it might help them to keep the spending in check.

I’ve gotten a few nice heroes but mostly what I get is feeders. It does not stress me out or cause me to get angry. If you are spending so much it’s causing anger, then you may need to rethink your game choice.

Remember… other than having fun playing, you are not getting anything material back for your money.


As much as it makes you happy! not frustrated! :slight_smile:


Is it just me or does it seem that the level you are has an impact? For instance the number of 4* heros I get from pulls is much higher now than when I was lower level in the game. Let me reiterate, more regular 4* pulls haha. I still have trouble with special heros, though I did get lucky pulled two Khionas in a row and I got Evelyn as well now and didn’t spend nearly the amount suggested. I feel the higher level you are the easier to pull higher level heros.

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I don’t think your level has anything to do with it, frankly. I’ve heard many newbies doing pulls and getting great results whilst I—an oldie—get…not much. :grin:

I can confirm that I recently got Sumitomo though when trying for Evelyn. :wink:

I think it was two 4* on a 10-pull. No 5*, the rest 3*.


It’s probably just like the equation above that I’m equating the increased time I’ve pulled with number of 4*s. It’s kind of a shame, it would make sense that as you progress in the game your chance would increase for the level of heros your level associates with, which is one thing I’m excited to see the special branches come into affect. It will provide a little more complexity and layer to skill at playing the game and diversity. So even if a lot of players of the same cards, there will be more variance in how they are untilized. In this instance you could probably get away with letting more players have higher level heros from special events.

tbh *5 is pain to feed as new player , better do *4 at least 2 rainbow set before do *5

i am doing 2 *5 and 3 *4 right now , *5 took forever to be done and much food needed

imo best practice are to wait tc19 before do *5 , 2 SH to go for me


I’m on the edge of understanding. So it doesn’t matter if I do the 10 pull or 100 pull or 1000 pulls in a ROW necessarily, the equation has to do with the odds x #of pulls without having them all together as a factor, right? Which might explain why after months of playing I just happened to get my first 5* (Sartana) and two 4* (Boldtusk & Sonya) during Christmas week. For a moment, I thought it was just a happy Christmas! (Really, it was lovely!)

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I think it’s easy to over think this. It’s really a very simple and obvious phenomenon but when it’s mixed in with discussing lots of different odds, it sounds like a big deal.

The more times you do a thing, the more likely it is that you will get the right result sooner or later.

The probability of each event doesn’t get better.

The probability of it happening after several tries doesn’t get better.

Roll a dice - 1/6 chance of a six every time.

But the more times you roll the dice, the better.

You might get a six on the first roll, or the last.

It’s always 1/6 chance.

But the more times you roll, it the more likely that you will get a six eventually


I totally agree with this. I’m one of those players who doesn’t spend money at all in this game and I’ve played for about 9 months? But I have a pretty good roster. No legendaries yet but I have three four stars


This +100. I still don’t see how people can’t understand this. Though can we please move all the “I don’t understand math or have common sense” posts to whatever is the current “I don’t understand math or have common sense” thread is and not clutter this one up with nonsense as well? :wink:


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