How is using Censures method Cheating? [Staff Quote in Post 2; Censure (Otto) Comment in Post 139]

I’ve tested the Censure method, multiple times and never pulled a 5*, so I have no confirmation bias. While I appreciate Censure’s thought process, it falls apart in my opinion due to the fact that it presupposes your pulls, two from normal tokens (that pull high rarity occurrences), one from a special event that is also higher rarity, and then a 10-pull are consecutive and not impacted by all the other pulls in the game, so even if his logic of the randomness being streaky were accurate, it would be nearly impossible to take advantage of that given all the other people pulling at the same time. Nevertheless, if you do not mind the trial and error aspect of doing several normal token pulls followed by the special event pulls prior to trying a 10-pull, then I guess as other’s have stated, no harm done. But if you’re expecting to see your luck increase, be prepared to be disappointed.

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I’ve never tried the Censure method, even with several members of my alliance kinda swearing by it. I’ve had good luck with pulls and bad luck with pulls with streaks going both ways. Mainly because it’s exactly that. Luck. Goes both ways. But I would never tell anyone that they are doing it the wrong way. Whatever floats yer boat. My best summons have been lightning in a bottle. Great heroes from single pulls have far outweighed what I’ve gotten from ten pulls. And my HotM luck has just always been stupid good. Only two I haven’t gotten since Aegir are Grimble and Rafaelle…I’m ok with that.

Caveat…if someone could convince me of a method to get a seasonal 5* hero I would probably try it. Playing since April 18 and all I’ve gotten are Victor and Killhare. Definitely won’t complain about Killhare, but a MN would be freaking nice in my third year here! Lol.

I’ve been playing since July 17 and don’t have a single seasonal 5 star. All the 3s and 4s, but at least 50 to 60 EHTs (probably more, honestly, it’s the only place I ever use them) have never brought a 5 star.

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The gambler’s fallacy doesn’t necessarily apply to those adhering to a strict set of rules within the context of a game, though. Take blackjack, for instance. Yes, the appearance of each individual card is considered by most to be “random”, but in actuality, if you are playing with a single or double deck of cards and not continuously shuffling with one of those machines, it is not. That’s the entire concept behind counting cards, there are patterns and variables that can be exploited beyond just saying “random”. The pulls in this game are no different. At some point, the “randomness” of these pulls goes back to the seed that sets the parameters and starts over. We are just not around to see when that is and what happens on between. That makes prediction almost impossible, but also means that it’s not random and could, in theory, be exploited.

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You use DHT’S TO do a daily summon. In the upper left corner of the daily summons page you will see a ! Push it. It shows appearence rates for each hero or troop in the summons available. A 3* hero is 3.3% a 3* troop is 1.7%. Those 2 are optimal for getting a better pull. The method is all over the place. Find one read it follow it excately. ( this is the difficult part. You get a 1-2* hero you stop and go no farther. You do you will get a passel of useless 3* 9 or 10 of them. A 3* hero most the time you get a couple 4* rest 3* slight chance for HOTM. You get a 3* troop go directly to where you want to summon and do a 10x pull. If it starts with a 5* you will more than likely get the HOTM As well if not 1 has about a 75% chance of being a 5* but more than likely no Hotm. It does take a lot of discipline to use correctly but it does work. All of my 5* was using the method along with the last 5 hotms. 2 of them I have 3 of. Give it a chance. What you have to lose besides frustration and anger at crapy pulls.

The game itself gives you all the information you need. Nothing to exploit. You can not make it give you a 5* this just lets you see when you have a better chance to get better heros. That’s it. What is there to exploit?

I still do not have a Christmas 5*. On a lot of events I just do not have the dhts to check the rng very much. It seems to be harder Lt find it high on seasonal events. Even with SG increasing the odds for 5* during this event. They went up from .6% to 1.5%. That is nice. Its finding your rng high that’s the challenge. But when you do you get a lot better heros and more of them.

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I know have 28 5* heros. Every single one is due to censures method. I use it as intended and follow it exactly and it works. I have recorded the last 5 hotms using the method. Reuben I don’t really want and rng is consistantly low so I have yet to do a pull. Did pull justice on a coin during last elemental yellow. You have nothing to lose except frustration and a pile of money.

You mean lime the boards are supposed to be random? If they were random the computer would not adjust for multiple heros of the same color by reducing the number of that color tiles by more the more heros of that color. Random is random. And these boards act more like a program than random. I did 5 seperate fights with 5 different color mono teams on the same season same stage. Each time the color mono team I was using always had way less tiles. Sometimes I could not keep them alive as the tiles were just not there at all. That is not random. If it were random the board would not change so drastically. My opinion on it anyway.

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I would say it works pretty well. Every single 5* using the method. A lot on single pulls.

Plus a maxed Bai Yeong Khiona and Lianna with costume

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Just think about this game as a casino and you know the number rule. The house always wins. Sure, someone might hit a jackpot from time to time, but in the long run, the house ALWAYS wins.

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Sirfightsalot1 I don’t use any method and am not a whale. Nevertheless I acquired 9 unique Hotm this year and about 35 unique 5* heroes - all without any method. Censure’s method just makes you feel that you have some kind of influence over what’s just luck.

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This is true, the closest that we know of to true random is what goes on in the quantum foam region (and that may be just a lack of understanding). Even a coin flip or a dice toss is not truly random. That being said, a good pseudo random number generator is probably as close as we can currently get, and predicting a pseudo random number generator result is no more accurate than predicting a truly random result.

I thought Censure’s method used 2* and 3* troop pulls as a guide as they are less likely to occur. Are there variations on the method?

Exactly. And they are, pseudoically speaking. And I have yet to see any long-term prevalence of colour reduction when stacking in almost three years of playing. If the boards were ALWAYS colour-balanced that would be more of a non-randomness indicator.

PS Off-topic.

But you still don’t know how long the streak will be. After 5 lucky streak, does it mean the 6th have a higher chance to be lucky again? No.

When you flip coin and get tail 5 times, the 6th one still only have 50% to become tail.

My brother is a programmer and lecturer who know how RNG works.

I’m not sure this is necessarily true, if one believes they are on a hot streak, they will potentially spend more money on pulls than they might assuming they didn’t believe in the system. This also means they make more pulls, thus have greater odds of getting a 5* anyway, which leads to confirmation bias and further spending following the system.

Obviously, this depends on a players personality, discipline, budgeting etc., but just pointing out there is a potential downside for some.

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I have over 60 5* heroes. Every single one is due to just pulling whenever I felt like it. Never done a 30 pull, only ever 10 pulls.

Just because some people get lucky when using the method doesn’t mean it works. But as with all Pseudo-nonsense there will be people who swear it’s absolutely fool proof.

My anecdotal evidence suggests it all total luck and either you get a 5* or you don’t.

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