How is this statistically possible!?

Someone in my alliance got this today


5 five stars in a 10x pull

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Potentially they could get 10 guardian panthers. statistically a lot is possible however unlikely.


It’s definitely an improbability, but not an impossibility :wink:

That’s some really good luck!


Vela was summoned during the 10x pull?

I thought that the 10x pull is first resolved and then you get the corresponding bonus draws for the HOTM if they succeeded

I flash back to when I got nothing but 3 stars on my last 10x pull

You can get the HOTM with a single draw. I got a HOTM from using a won epic hero token, my only summon that month.

thats what happens in the animation, but in the log it shows at which point you actually got your vela


New butterfly effect:

Where one player gets 5 legendary heroes in a 10x pull, another 500 players will get all rare heroes in their 10x pulls.

Lol just joking. Nice pull!

Oh yes, I was one of those 500. :slight_smile: Two 10x pulls with no 5* in January 2020.


I guess I should wait a bit now before doing my pulls :stuck_out_tongue:

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You’d never know what time is right. :sunglasses:

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The time is never right…that’s what you should know.


OP’s friend got it right, apparently.

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Each individual pull in a ten pulls has the chance to draw the HotM. When successful the portal saves them all till the end but the recent activity allocates it to the pull which was successful.


This is unlikely but not lottery winning level. The chance of a 5* in any pull is 1.5%+1% = 2.5% ignoring HOTM. There is a separate draw of 1.3% for HOTM. I’m going to make an approximation (if you can argue about it you will understand it is close enough) that the chance of any 5* is 3.8% and ignore the chance of getting both a 5* and a HOTM on the same draw.

You can use the binomial theorem to figure out the odds. The chance that 5/10 pulls will be 5* is:

Chance = Binomial coefficient of (10,5) * (1-0.038)^5 * (0.038)^5

If I didn’t make a mistake the odds are approximately 1 in 60,000

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I got the Guardian Panther 2 times in the same 10x pull yesterday. So how unlikely is that? (was never quite good in doing the maths) :upside_down_face:

it does not make any sense, I’m playing since august 19, I have already summoned over 100 times epic heroes, and so far I’ve got only ONE 5* hero… A guy from my guild started at the same time, summoned less than me and already around 20 5* heroes … it’s impossible, I think there is some kind of bug with my account, but I don’t even know where to complain about it…

Blame the guy who pulled five 5* heroes in one 10x pull. He took all the luck from the rest of us.

That’s friggin awesome

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