HOTM drop rates not accurate

So far this month between regular legendary hero summons, elemental summons and Atlantis summons I’ve performed over 200 polls and received zero HOTM. At a 1.3% drop rate with over 200 pulls I should have received at minimum 2 HOTM.

Nope, sadly not.

These are only the calculated chances and you may need several thousands of pulls to come exactly to such an output.

Anotherone may get one from the first pull at also 1,3% chance.

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@BFD In case Binomial Probability Formulas aren’t your thing, @ERROR4 has put together a helpful post on summoning odds, along with a table of some examples of how the math breaks out on net percentage to pull a HOTM over a number of draws, on average.

As @Olmor said, the upshot is that there’s no amount of pulls that would guarantee a HOTM.

In fact, even at 250 pulls, there’s a decent chance you still wouldn’t get a HOTM.

(@Kerridoc @Rook @Coppersky Possible Merge of Topic)

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Sorry you haven’t received the HOTM, but from what I understand, that 1.3% goes to each individual pull, not the overall 250 or even 1000 pulls. Other words, that percentage does not accumulate the more you pull.

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This is a logical fallacy, called Gambler’s fallacy.
Just because you have a 1% chance (rounded down) to get a HOTM doesn’t mean that after 99 failed pulls the 100th will be guaranteed give you this HOTM.

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How many hotm’s do you guys usually keep?

Sometimes i cant believe its only 1%… Like when i got 4 aegirs in 1 month without spending that much

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HOTM on first pull happened to me this month…one token and there she was :smile:

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Don’t say that loud, cause one may think, you shrink the odds for others :rofl:

Congrats :slightly_smiling_face:

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I’ve gotten HOTM every month I’ve played never did more then 30 some pulls in any of those month



6 Aliases 5 Drake 2 Zim 2 aegir the one zim in ss is wrong one I have another at 80 and 2 of Aliases are 80

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I did an epic coin pull and got zimkitha. 1 pull, one HOTM. There really isn’t any must have heroes… just be happy with what you get. Guin has become one of the easiest tank heroes for me to beat now. Once I found this out, I realized there isn’t a reasons to chase shiny new heroes.

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I did three 10 pulls for Atlantis, 1st 10 nothing, 2nd 10 HOTM & 1, 5*, 3rd 10 two 5*
Today I did two 10 Elemental pulls, 1st 10 three 4*, 2nd 10 Four 5* Leonidas, Justice, Vivica & Joon in that order.
The only reason there is a % is solely to satisfy Apple Pay or they would blacklist A&P from their users being able to spend on their app. All apps that have a lottery like A&P must give a percentage

Yeah I used to never believe people’s bad luck with pulls because I guess I’m usually on the lucky side. Got 4 Evelyn’s last month on a 30* Atlantis pull along with Kage, Athena and Misandra. I’m not lucky with ascension mats though, even bonus Atlantis chests have only given me 3* mats. Such is life.

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Update: another 35 pulls since the last and still no HOTM. That’s 500 pulls with no HOTM and only 3= 5* common 5* heroes. This is beyond ridiculous.

Right, my first HOTM was Khiona, got her twice the same day, one in Elemental Summon in the morning, and one more from an epic token in the afternoon.

OTOH, in december I made a lot of pulls and only Santa came in, no Evelyn whatsoever.

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I had 4 Evelyns in a row.
Couldn’t believe.
2 used on self cannibalism.
Was a kind of Evelyn overflow.
My bench is very greenheavy.

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One thing I learned in the 10 months I’ve been playing this game is never to do epic summons, unless I get epic tokens.

I do only elemental, event or Atlantis summons; my roster has improved a lot since.

Two more pulls, one with saved and earned gems and one with challenge token and two more crappy 3* imagine that…

I am relatively lucky with HOTM but I have terrible pulls for event and Atlantis. I wish I had more success with the others, but I am not will to spend more money, so I will take what I get.

If this was the case, why on earth would your friend EVER go back home?! Convention roadie for life!

Please do not apply this tactic to women.

These odds are higher than you think. Twins come in both sexes, of which, are equally interested in pillow fights and the unbias nature of judges.

This! This game is not a plutocracy. Albeit you can get into the middle class faster with a little bit of dough, but it won’t get you to the top. What you’ve given here is sound advice.

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