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I have been tracking my personal (lack of) success with HA10. I have ran the conversion non-stop since late September 2021, and finished 38 conversions. And lo’, I have received one result which has not been costumeless S1 hero.

Counting probabilities, and assuming the standard set of 100 fictitious E&P players having ran HA10 for the same amount of time, there would be

  • 2 poor fellows who would have received only costumeless S1 heroes.
  • 8 players would have had equal “success” as me, i.e., received exactly one something else.
  • 90 players would have reveived at least 2 times something else.

I wonder why I always end up in the “worst 10%” bin of luck.

If somebody is interested in calculations, the above is based on the percentages presented in-game: 5% for something else than S1, and bonus 5% to receive costume if there is one. So basically, because there is a costume available for every S1 hero, the probability for “costumeless S1” is 0.95*0.95 = 90.25%. And using this basic assumption and some combinatorics, for 38 conversions one gets:

N Exactly N something else At least N something else
0 0.02 1.00
1 0.08 0.98
2 0.17 0.90
3 0.22 0.73
4 0.20 0.51
5 0.15 0.31
6 0.09 0.16
7 0.04 0.07
8 0.02 0.03
9 0.01 0.01
10 0.00 0.00

So, someone starting an equal endeavor should expect 3 or 4 something else as result. Unless, naturally, they have been cursed with the same curse as me, and they should be very happy with the consolation prize…

EDIT to add: Another way to look at this would be that the probability 90.25% means that almost one conversion in ten should result in something else, on average.

Continuing with “my take on HA10”… I suppose that looking at the averaged masses from their ivory towers the developers see things as working fine. However, on personal level, the experience might suck so very hard. Which is naturally true for each and every aspect of this gambling game, E&P.

Just have been succesful by re-training Horghall into the new Vivica costume. Very pleased about that! Didn’t even expect that the new costumes will already be included into HA10.

Anyway, since I did not get the first costume of her, is this still in the “pool” or will every succesful transfer now be rewarded with the second costume?

Kudos… It is either or when it comes to costumes. But… U only get 1