I have been tracking my personal (lack of) success with HA10. I have ran the conversion non-stop since late September 2021, and finished 38 conversions. And lo’, I have received one result which has not been costumeless S1 hero.
Counting probabilities, and assuming the standard set of 100 fictitious E&P players having ran HA10 for the same amount of time, there would be
- 2 poor fellows who would have received only costumeless S1 heroes.
- 8 players would have had equal “success” as me, i.e., received exactly one something else.
- 90 players would have reveived at least 2 times something else.
I wonder why I always end up in the “worst 10%” bin of luck.
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If somebody is interested in calculations, the above is based on the percentages presented in-game: 5% for something else than S1, and bonus 5% to receive costume if there is one. So basically, because there is a costume available for every S1 hero, the probability for “costumeless S1” is 0.95*0.95 = 90.25%. And using this basic assumption and some combinatorics, for 38 conversions one gets:
N | Exactly N something else | At least N something else |
---|---|---|
0 | 0.02 | 1.00 |
1 | 0.08 | 0.98 |
2 | 0.17 | 0.90 |
3 | 0.22 | 0.73 |
4 | 0.20 | 0.51 |
5 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
6 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
7 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
8 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
9 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
So, someone starting an equal endeavor should expect 3 or 4 something else as result. Unless, naturally, they have been cursed with the same curse as me, and they should be very happy with the consolation prize…
EDIT to add: Another way to look at this would be that the probability 90.25% means that almost one conversion in ten should result in something else, on average.