Think so; hence the ā-2ā part 
Really Iām probably just being optimistic and dreamy but heyā¦ can hope rightā¦?
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I have 100 plus days in TC20 and 1400 days in a TC11. Moving back and forth when I need food or have too much food works perfectly. With HA6 for iron storage , I love it.
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I see the HA 6 limited to the amount of materials you own. I have 750 Scabbard / Tall Boots, which means I can only store ~ 22 650 000 iron. 2-3 months from when Iāll have every building maxed is more than enough to fill that amount of iron. I have only one building left to max - level 8 out of 10.
Cmon SG, let us make more training in lvl10, why only 1 ?
we dont want to use TC20 anymore to store food, let us store in HA 10
and add event/S2 4* on HA 8 , we can get special 5* but not the 4*, absolute nonsense
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Canāt wait to use HA10 to reroll my duplicates. 
Just so Iām crystal clear on itā¦ if I throw in a S1 5*, have I got a chance at getting any other S1 5* in the pool? or could I also get events and past hotm? 
I imagine itās a case of put in one 5* hero, get back a random 5* hero from the pool?
you have officially 95% of getting another s1 5*
in reality its 99,999999% for a s1 5*
pulling a event or hotm 5* is just a rumor like the loch ness monter
What do the numbers tell us?
The event occurs within the time yt with the probability x%.
Until then, the numbers are correct.
However, this does not say anything about when it will happen.
With luck at the beginning, with bad luck at the end or not at all.
So you canāt say that it takes 16 years to have the hero you want.
It can be next week, next month, much later, or never.
The numbers are fully explained so Iām really unsure what youāre trying to say.
It specifically says for an xyz change it will take xyz days.
Not saying that EVERY person will be that wayā¦ Some will be better, others will be worse. But stats are about the bulk. Not an individual.
Soā¦ Yeahā¦
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It just says what probability there is in a given period.
It just doesnāt say anything about if and when it happens.
There are now the statements that you need 16 years to get the desired hero.
This is just not true.
Noā¦ I said that statistically, to have the stated Probability you would need that time period.
As I said, statistics is never about an individualā¦ Person A might get it in 2 attempts (14 days). Person B might never ever ever ever get it regardless of how long they play or how many gem skips they doā¦
THAT is what statistics are and THAT is what the numbers stateā¦
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I corrected your statement for you, now it is trueā¦ I think that was the bit that you were missing.
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Okay, so far we agree.
But it is clear that the time the hero will come (when he does) is unclear.
If 100 people get it, statistically 50 will get the hero in the 1st half of the time and 50 in the 2nd half of the time.
This cuts the time in half on average.
I know that I am petty.
In Germany I would be called a bean counter.
Not quite, the centre of the distribution is 16 years so 50 will get it before 16 years and 50 will get it after 16 yearsā¦ Anyway its not exactly a stat we should be looking forward to achieving as itās pretty unlikely!
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I donāt want to criticize either.
The above numbers apply to the total number of conversions and the probability of getting at least one non-S1 hero in that time.
So far everything is correct.
Sometimes it is better to clarify something with specific numbers.
I once made a table that assumed 100 people over 27 rounds would want a non-S1 hero (5%).
Is a bit abstract as it is rounded to 2 places behind the decimal point.
After 27 rounds, 75 got one.
But already after 10 rounds 40 have the 1st.
It is not certain when each individual will get their hero.
As I said, it can be at the very beginning or at the very end.
I just wanted to point it out.
Since I only have 5 non-S1 heroes in the pool myself, the chances of getting something special arenāt that bad.
Iāve been running my HA7 for about 4 days now and it just spit out my first 3-star trainer hero - after a bunch of 1-stars and a few 2-stars.
Will have my 3rd advanced iron storage maxed in around 3 daysā time, then Iām going to upgrade my HA straight to lvl 10, so I can research and upgrade my last advanced food storage concurrently, while still generating trainer heroes or 2* feeder troops.
Basically what you wrote and all your table shows is exactly what I posted in my original numbers soā¦ Thanksā¦?
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@Guvnor Please excuse me again if it sounded like I doubted what you said.
I really never did that.
My english is not as good as it should be.
Thatās why I use the google translator.
I really appreciate your work here in the forum.
From the pure results of statistical calculation, it is simply not possible to see the entire process for everyone.
This then sometimes leads to a misinterpretation.
But maybe something more interesting.
I calculated a little further.
If 100 people make 27 conversions:
25 have 0 non-S1 hero
36 have only 1 non-S1 hero
24 have 2 non-S1 heroes
12 have 3 non-S1 heroes
(From here the reliability of the calculation is very rough)
2 got 4 non-S1 heroes
1 got 5 non-S1 heroes
(Note: Statistical predictions of upcoming events are only more precise for a larger population.)
With that I would like to end this discussion for myself.
So now Iām going to farms 8-7 
All good tiles and have fun in the game
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What? Which portal can I use to summon āNessieā ? 
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Still no news for non S1 4* on HA ?