Help understanding odds or rng

Let me start by saying that I am not a gaming expert by any stretch of the imagination. However, I was pretty decent with statistics when I was in college but my tutor was Sir Isaac Newton so most of the credit goes to him.

my question is about the odds and rng or whatever system is used to determine what is drawn, specifically with regards to troops.

I decided to start working on a purple and red mana troop for my defense team. purple isn’t a problem nor is any other color except red. I currently have 150+ 1 and 2* troops for green, purple, blue and yellow. I have a total of 4, yes 4 red troops. 2 4* and 2 3*. I havent done any heavy leveling in a long time so I know I didn’t just feed them all.

how is this possible if the draws are purely random?

I also remember that getting a red 4* troop took forever.

in the most basic sense, if you were able to draw only a 4* troop based solely on the 5 colors in the game wouldnt the odds be 1:5?

thanks in advance

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RNG at it’s heart is TRULY random, so there will always be outliers to the average. In 1.5 years of play, I’ve found 7 4* red critical damage troops, and no purple mana ones.

Not getting 1 and 2 star troops of one color for such a long time seems crazy, but a roll of the dice can make it that way.

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Short answer, it is possible because it is purely random.
If it would be balanced, it would not be random.

As I said on other threads humans hate True Random. We can’t comprehend it.

True random means you can flip Heads 10 time’s in row (like I did yesterday) but we wouldn’t guess that because we don’t think it can happen.

So we have “Human Random” which is nothing like True Random. Human random is what we think random should be like and it’s very very very different to true random.

The odds are as printed but when we’ve gone 30 pulls and just had 3* your brain tells you that isn’t possible because you must pull a 4* at least! But that’s not how true random and odds work. It’s actually very probable to do that.

So a bad pull or a bad run of boards is perfectly naturally to happen. The best thing to do is take it in your stride and don’t start over thinking it. It’s not a conspiracy that’s for sure.

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Those of us who seem to perpetually sit on the left side of the bell curve have excellent observation of “truly random” :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Example: I have done ~150 trainings in tc20 since starting in last October, and have gotten exactly 1 5*. To balance that there was a guy in my alliance who got something like 5 in his first month :scream:

“Could be worse. Not sure how, but it could be.” -Eeyore

@Tess_01 3 in the first 4 :wink:

But Karma is a cruel mistress as I fed Isarnia (she was pull 4 :joy:) to Brand whilst playing on a night out.

That wasn’t random though…that was just me being drunk

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@Petrifiedquagmire I have noticed a similar trend! Purple and green troops of all types are fairly common. While yellow and red are harder to obtain with red being the hardest. One trend I have noticed is that I tend to get more red troops and most of my 4* red troops when the Epic Hero of the day is red. Yes, it is all random, but I feel that things are weighted toward purple troops and less toward red. I also feel that when the Epic Hero is red, the weight to pull/be rewarded a red troop goes up ever so slightly.

That is just “my” observation while I’m playing and it is not based on any facts in how things are actually designed in the game. I hope that helps some. :wink:

This seems beyond, highly unlikely even for RNG.
It’s difficult to provide any chances on this occurrence without seeing your Troops.
For example, are you suggesting you have 150 each of the other elements or 150 total?, Are your Fire 3-star and 4-star troops much more leveled than your other element troops? There has been no indication from SG or the forum that the Troop drop rate is different for each element. Other threads have show people struggling to get Holy 4-star, or nature, or fire, etc. It’s different for everyone, which speaks to the randomness of the pulls.
Good luck getting more Fire to level up your 4-star. I find that I leave my troops alone for substantial periods of time and then find a good time when I’m not using my food for leveling heroes, or embleming to do a significant Troop leveling and I will quickly run out of one element or another. One of the grinding aspects of the game is the limited resources - even 150 troops is not much when it come to moving those 4-star Troops higher.

You either get sweet fa or you get something cool or you hit the jackpot.

Brand’s better anyway, average vs slow I mean come on not even a contest in today’s meta. :crazy_face:

my red troops are 4*'s at 11 and 5 and 3* at 17 and 1. the 3* at 17 was the first 3* red I drew which is why the level is so high. I didnt get a 4* for a long time.

some simple stats on me and my teams. I’ve been playing for 2.5ish years. My defense is at 4350 and I have a few 4000+ teams. currently at around 2600 trophies
obviously not a top player but experienced and competitive.

Yup, RNG has no pattern to it. That’s what makes it random. You absolutely CANNOT predict what you will get next. I have over the years collected five green 4* crit and zero green 4* mana troops. It took me almost a year and a half to get my first 4* red troop at all. By then I had three of every other colour. Red seems the worst colour for me overall. I went a year before getting any red 5* hero too.