# Have you noticed that the same hero drops in a matter of seconds?

Is it just me that the same hero drops in a matter of just a few seconds?

Example:
2x free summon daily > got Carver - nice!
in just seconds i go for the tc13 drop waiting for me → Carver - bummer

just coincidence?
Doesn’t this happened to you too?

Yes. We don’t know how their random algorithm works. But this happen a lot. For items too.

Seems like a coincidence.

Happens a lot. I got 5 x 5* from my tc20. 3x richard. 2x kadilen. In that order. I doubt it’s all random.

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so it is wise to wait until you go to a TC drop / summon etc if you just got a crappy hero :))

this happens a lot so I dont know if its accurate :)))

Someone in my alliance got 3 Banes in a row from 3 atlantis coins. Yeah, he was pissed.

Here’s a phenomenon that would be strange, and strongly suggestive that something systematic, not random, was happening: if TCs and summonses always generated different heroes.

Here’s another phenomenon that would be strange, and strongly suggestive that something systematic, not random, was happening: if TCs and summonses always generated the same heroes.

Happily, we don’t see either of these things, so we don’t have any strongly suggestive evidence that something systematic, not random, is happening.

Do we see the same heroes emerging from TCs and summons more than we would expect? I don’t know. To figure that out, we’d need to know two things:

1. How often would we expect to see the same heroes emerging from TCs and summonses? (This is calculable, probably using just data you can find on the forum. It might be a bit messy and won’t be precise, but one would be able to get a good idea of the expected frequency, if one could be bothered making the effort.)

2. How often do the same heroes actually appear from TCs and summonses? (A person would just need to log their results for a while to collect this info, though a big sample, collected by multiple players, would be desirable.)

Without doing that work, all this stuff is just a bit fuzzy. Do I feel like duplicates are more common than they should be? What can that feeling possibly be based on, if I haven’t even calculated how common duplicates should be?

This is all correct.

I’d just add: The fact that we perceive a pattern is poor evidence that the pattern exists. We, as a species, are excellent at finding patterns where none exist.

A perceived pattern is a reasonable starting point for an investigation, but a long long way from an end point from which we should make conclusions.

3 Likes

Again…

Did yesterday a 6xatlantis… And got skittleskull…

And now from tc13…

Lolz and bummer again

Should be happy… First 4* from tc13…
But I aint… With a dupplicate… A weak one i might add…

Double bummer…