Good question. I don’t keep exact tabs on defense wins, but I can see a trend: I’m doing very well with defense wins as long as my cups are below 2.200. When I go above 2.300 I wake up to 100+ cup losses. It seems the amount of cups may be more influential than team composition for defense.
For the offense side the answer is clear. I’m winning about as much attacks as when I had an all 4 star team. The climb is totally due to attacking targets that are worth more cups. Mind you I don’t select my targets based on their cups. I select them based on their team strength. So the cup increase came when I started attacking higher team strength teams.
My raiding isn’t aimed at gathering cups, or ham, or ore. I’m filling 40 heroes chests. I’m below my skill cap, because for the chests it’s smarter to reliably take down 6 teams of 5 in a row, than go for challenging battles against heavy targets.