F2P Raid Experiment

For comparison,

2+ years as VC2P (first 10 months F2P, then i bought Rudolph’s Gift - few other deals since then)

I have 36 5*, 33 are S1. 14 are maxed.
The 3 non-TC20 are Aeron, Gregorion, Ariel. I am missing two S1 5*, Leonidas and Magni.

I seem to be exceptionally unlucky in summons portals but better than average in TC20. I have quite a few event/seasonal 3* but zero 4*. I have three Atlantis 4*, and ALL the S1 4*.

I raid primarily with my S1 5* and Ariel and certain 4* like BT, Grimm, Costumed Melendor.

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$0 spent here. I got my first ever HotM 1 year and 9 months after I started playing. I also had to wait for 2 years and 6 months for my first ever 5* seasonal event hero. No 5* challenge event heroes yet.

If I draw on my personal experience, I didn’t have a single non-S1 5* at the 1,5 years mark.

I was very unlucky with 5*, but I consider myself quite lucky with 4*.

The roster in the OP’s post is certainly not average but I said it’s possible since that could be the roster of an EXTREMELY lucky person who got the best heroes with challenge event coins, ehts, etc. There are more ways to pull heroes for free now than there were in the past (the chances for 5* now are lower, though).

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Love the idea and I look forward to seeing the results.

Given how diligent you are with stat tracking, I’d like to see you add back your “restricted” heroes from time to time, but only one or two at a time. Essentially I’m trying to simulate for extra luck from time to time. So in normal times you win ~93% of raids (from what I remember). In this f2p, let’s say you only win 80%. Would adding back one of the better heroes bring that up to 90% or only 82%?

How are you handling your defense team? Would you leave it as your normal defense or adjust it to your “new” roster? If you have a weaker defense, will you naturally be at a lower cup level and find easier opponents?

Random idea for your next experiment would be to purposely play worse. Purposely make sub optimal plays. You could answer if it’s better to have the best heroes and be dumb or be f2p and be smart.

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This is cool. Advice coming from 2 pure ftp accounts over 2+ years, the average non tc20 5* is 1 every 6 months from figures I saw long ago on forums and that hold true for my main account and alt is slightly better at 1 every 5 months (most will be hotm as well since they are better odds).

Also drop proteus for gobbler (ftp luck), thats my rule for you lol, my 2 accounts have no proteus, see how you go using little john as mana control :stuck_out_tongue:

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Yeah, not even close to a C2P roster, much less an F2P.

Remove:

Anzogh
Santa Claus
Valeria
Seshat
Thoth-Amun
Proteus
Merlin

You may replace them with an S1 heroes of your choice.

Max emblems on 4* = 18
Max emblems on 5* = 7

I’d STILL consider your roster generous for the terms you laid out. If you really want the F2P experience, also delete Owl, Hansel, and Mist.

4 Likes

Bit harsh…

Comparing to other F2P rosters:

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Agreed. I thought both Anzogh and Santa made for improbable luck in the reds and that judgement tainted my assessment of the whole layout.

It’s not harsh at all. Too many event and hotm specials in there for the few free pulls he’d have earned.

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@discobot display help

I currently know how to do the following things:

@discobot start {name-of-tutorial}

Starts an interactive tutorial. {name-of-tutorial} can be one of: tutorial, advanced tutorial.

@discobot roll 2d6

:game_die: 3, 6

@discobot quote

:left_speech_bubble: All wrong-doing arises because of mind. If mind is transformed can wrong-doing remain? — Buddha

@discobot fortune

:crystal_ball: You may rely on it

@discobot roll 78d100

I only have 20 dice. Shameful, I know!

:game_die: 85, 82, 84, 29, 70, 14, 48, 41, 10, 22, 6, 96, 50, 88, 27, 2, 64, 58, 45, 11

@discobot roll 20d100 (again, please!)

Hi! To find out what I can do, say @discobot display help.

@discobot roll 20d100

:game_die: 74, 73, 11, 35, 1, 97, 11, 53, 63, 37, 42, 79, 23, 36, 63, 23, 97, 70, 89, 97

Alright, guess I’ll have to do my RNG elsewhere as discobot’s powers are limited and Discourse doesn’t like that I have to keep asking. Was going to try to do it publicly for the sake of veracity. I’ll keep the 40 results discobot rolled for me and do the rest offsite.

Back later with an update draft of roster.

2 Likes

I don’t think the original post was way out of line compared to my F2P roster. My non-S1 epic and legendary heroes after about 1.5 years of play are:

  • Onatel
  • Poseidon
  • Vela x 2 (one maxed; one unleveled)
  • Ranvir (2^60)
  • Brynhild
  • Sumitomo (unleveled)
  • Ameonna
  • Proteus
  • Stonecleave (unleveled)
  • Danzaburo x 3 (1 maxed, 2 unleveled)
  • Norns (unleveled)
  • Buddy
  • Gobbler
  • Wilbur

Seems kind of comparable with the OP roster. Strong in one color (yellow for me; red for OP) weak in another (green for both of us; I don’t have any green legendaries, period). OP had to drop a few legendaries that she might have leveled/emblemed if they’d been all she had, too, so there’s that.

Agree that having all the mana controllers might be a little too lucky (I only drew Proteus last month, and I still don’t have Hansel or Gretel), but I don’t think this was as completely unfair as some folks are claiming. A F2P who is judicious about the heroes they target could have this kind of roster without extraordinary luck.

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Everyone’s results will vary. As I mentioned in a previous post, I have a completely FTP alt that seems to have better luck in summons than my main. Still think it’s extremely rare for a FTP (or even CTP) to have more than a small handful of non-season one 5* heroes though.

Not saying it’s not possible, just probably won’t be most players’ experience.

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Second Draft

Based on the responses I received I have decided to redesign my methodology and redraft the roster. For this I used a completely new approach, starting from how many summon resources of each kind I think I would have accrued and then simulating the actual summons. Feedback still welcome.

Roster

Kingston
Ranvir (do not have in reality)
Onatel
Victor
Ursena (do not have in reality)
Elkanen (do not have in reality)
Hansel x2
Buddy
Valeria x2
Lady Woolerton
Gadeirus x3
Danzaburo x2
Ameonna x2
Agwe
Gobbler
Triton
Plus all S1 four stars

Pretty sizable blow to not be able to field three of the five stars I ‘summoned.’ I’m not sure how to deal with that.

Full methodology below, if anyone is interested.

Epic Hero Tokens

I estimated acquiring 1 per week, so 78 total. I then ran those through the seasonal summons.

  • 55 three stars
  • 21 four stars
  • 2 five stars

I then did another set of RNG numbers for the 21 fours stars and 2 five stars, pulling:

  • 16 S1 four stars
  • 5 Seasonal four stars
  • 1 S1 five star
  • 1 Seasonal five star

I then assigned all seasonal four stars equal odds and summoned

  • Buddy
  • Valeria
  • Valeria
  • Lady Woolerton

Repeating that process for the S1 five stars netted

  • Elkanen

And lastly, for the seasonal five stars

  • Victor

Atlantis Coins

8 coins * 10 stages * 27 provinces
800 for completing normal and hard modes
~550 days * 1 coin in each chest * 4 titan / wanted chests
1600 AR runs * 0.1 Orichalcum Seadragons * 2.5 coins per drop
=5,550 coins

Summon results

  • 42 three stars
  • 13 four stars
  • 0 five stars

Repeating the differentiation process as above

  • 8 S1 four stars
  • 5 Atlantis four stars

Assigning equal probability to each Atlantis four star:

  • 2x Gadeirus
  • 2x Danzaburo
  • 1x Ameonna

Challenge Coins

I think we’ve had this format for roughly 6 months and estimated I farmed / received 17 coins per event (between the completion rewards and farming chests).

  • 7 three stars
  • 3 four stars
  • 0 five stars

Re-rolled into

  • 1 S1 four star
  • 2 challenge event four stars

Which became

  • 2x Hansel

Gems

I spend ~31.5 a day in accelerations, netting ~40 (including VIP). I assumed 0 in acceleration costs and removed VIP, so let’s assume roughly 10 gems per day over 550 days. I’m going to very roughly round that to 20 summons, as there are a number of factors I’m being stingy with, including Share the Gems, mission rewards, and POV.

  • 14 three stars
  • 5 four stars
  • 1 five star

Differentiating

  • 0 S1 four stars
  • 5 Atlantis four stars
  • 0 S1 five stars
  • 1 Atlantis five star

Actual heroes summoned

  • Ameonna
  • Agwe
  • Gobbler
  • Gadeirus
  • Triton
  • Ursena

HOTM

163 total summons across all portals. Rolled bonus HOTM 3 times and then assigned equal probability to each HOTM, getting

  • Kingston
  • Ranvir
  • Onatel
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@sleepyhead, my goals are to just have fun, force some variety into my raids, and hopefully learn something new about raids / synergy that I can apply in war.

@D_DI, I don’t think your suggestion lacks merit, but it is impossible. I do not HAVE more TC20 five stars. That is an area where I’ve been unlucky, pulling in fewer than 3% there (best research I’ve seen suggests the true rate is around 5%). I have undoubtedly been lucky in HOTM summons and probably pretty lucky overall, but think I’ve been unlucky with TC20 (and troops, FWIW).

@Ruskin505, I will set a defense based on the drafted heroes. I think that’s more representative in terms of what matchups I get, revenges, etc. Interesting idea to add things - I will keep that in mind if I expand the time of the experiment.

@TheDayHasCome, in viewing the F2P rosters that have been posted in this thread I think your thoughts are too harsh. It’s difficult to propose that a player would NEVER have luck and not get any key hero ever, which is essntially what I think you’re agitating for. If I had just posted sleepyhead’s or Noble Weasel’s roster I suspect you would have tried to pull out a few of their key heroes too, yet their overall lineup looks totally reasonable and representative.

@Zim, I’m going to disagree with you as well. It is not only probable, but likely that we would see some bunching in one element or another. You’re being fooled by randomness. I will again use Noble Weasel’s roster as an example: if I had posted that you would have said, ‘the multiple strong yellows invalidate this roster!’ when in fact it’s pretty much the exact opposite - only a completely fake roster would be equally powerful in each element.

@Noble_Weasel, thanks for chiming in! Your comments are a big help. Between all the feedback I’m fine with having revised things and will look for your comments on my second draft. As you point out, it is really a bummer that I won’t get the benefit of maxing and embleming heroes that would have gotten fed - I’m not sure if there’s a way to compensate for that. I might just have to live with it.

@Saicheeze, well, I didn’t draw Proteus in the second draft. Are you happy, you jerk? :stuck_out_tongue:

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