Do that, and let us know the results. It is always good to see data that either confirms or denies the current knowledge base.
And data always trumps confirmation bias.
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I will do it but it takes time. I need at least 100 raids against rogue class.
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FWIW
My Jackal is +11 and has the stated 12% evade.
I just did 12 raids (burned a flask just for you)…
Jackal was targeted with a Special skill (Direct hit, Splash, etc) 39 times during the raids.
He evaded the attack 4 times. Which comes to a 10.2% evade rate.
Interestingly enough, 3 of the 4 evades came in the same fight, 2 back to back.
So, my raids both confirmed what you saw in your raid (3x evades) and disproved the fact that it is happening more than the stated rate.
12 Likes
This is the reason I prefer at least 2 talented rogues in my defense team 
Marjana and Peters T19 give hard times to my oponents, especially they are on the corners. I like these talents and the odds. I will never forget one particular battle at war, when I won just because my Bold didn’t wanna die 
Five times was hit by specials or normal attacks by last 2 heroes remained and five times he come back to life. Last time I activated his special and kill with puzzle the two heroes. That was an epic battle. Glad for my decision to make him T18, then Magni with the rest of emblems.
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@ [Cvs]Thank you. nice stats
The one that really infuriates people is “Revive.” I had a Delilah revive 3 times in a row against me, then on the last one, she fired and healed. Any sort of revive or resurrection from Alby and MoNo should at the very least empty their mana bar.
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Reducing all mana would gut the talent imo.
What I think would be better is for Revive to require HP > 1 before checking if it procs.
Many times have I inflicted some DoT to a hero like Delilah or Magni, only to have them survive 4 times in a row and then fire the skill when the DoT wears off and they can fire.
This isn’t unheard of either. Other RPGs with similar abilities do this already. Since I’m a Fire Emblem series fan, I’ll just put the Miracle skill as an example; the ability used to work the same way as Revive, however in later games they nerfed it to make Miracle activation require HP > 1 before the roll to check if it activated.
It makes the game less luck dependent and would also make revive talent much less annoying to deal with in this game while still keeping it somewhat relevant.
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The one that really infuriates people is “Revive.” yup oh yup
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Just wait til magni or delilah revives three times in a row, then executes their special!
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I remember one 3* tournament Valen as tank revived 5x in a row on me. I was so busy hitting him I missed Belith charging up on the 5th one and then Valen killed me.
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I was going to make this really scathing post about how the OP has 8 of the 30 posts in the thread (~27% of the posts) and therefore should post exactly once in every 4.75 posts. I was then going to contrast this with the actual intervals at which the OP posted.
Then I observed that OP has posts
1
4
8
12
16
20
22
25
That is hilariously almost evenly distributed and therefore refutes the point I was going to make. New (and correct) conclusion: Evade rate is indeed different than stated because consecutive instances were observed.
The real question is:
If they did evade one in 50 turns, would you be here complaining about how it’s 2% instead of 12% they evaded your attacks?
The probability is very small but he could evade 100 times out of 100 hits. And he could not evade none out of 100 hits. That’s the truth. Is random. Every single hit has his chance.
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@Redeye In a 3 star tourney that was last month (it was the one where fire was banned) I had a 20 emblemed Valen revive 7 times in a row! The thing that defeated him? A tile from a color I wasn’t packing… 
OP is not evading this thread very successfully.
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The last sentence is correct (though I am not sure you know why). The first sentence is completely wrong…
Acme
Alright, alright, alright… all the talks of maths and odds and probabilities and such… look, I have been playing this game for 11 months and I’ve been reading the data people are posting on the forum, it’s all very complicated stuff but I think I have figured out the answer to all of the mathematical questions here regarding in-game odds.
The odds of the game working out exactly the way you want it to are less than 1%. The odds of the game doing something that you don’t want, no matter how improbable it may seem, are greater than 99%.
Can any math experts here confirm or disprove this hypothesis?
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It’s all true with a 95% confirmation bias.
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100 isn’t even near close enough. It isn’ enough to test the 12% and you’re trying to test the variance of 12% happening 3 times in a row.
Definitely not enough. Plus you would have to separate them by number of emblems. What about control group? Then you’d also have to test it against a group of rogues given placebo emblems, maybe they’re only evading because they believe they can. 