Should have received 3 event heroes at 1?
You may be good at math, but you need to brush up on your statistics.
Enlighten me, … please.
If someone does 400 pulls, how many 5* event heroes he should get?
Anywhere from zero to 400… 
BUT the odds of getting zero are 1.795%. And the odds of getting 400 is 0.01^400.
The expected value is 4.
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But the “odds” were scratched out when this was revealed.
And now we are left with…
And I got… one.
I just couldn’t resist …
You aren’t owed anything, you’re just on the wrong side of average. Your 1 is still within the expected range, just on the left side of the bell curve.
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Good lord how many thousands of dollars are you spending on this game?
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I see.
Be in the right side of the “curve” on the legendaries and HoTM (12 times) but when it got to the legendary event hero, I’m suddenly on the “left” side?
Is that what you are saying?
Do you know what this means?
Yeah it means you were unlucky with the event heroes. Other people may have gotten a couple event heroes but no hotm. Or all their legendary draws were event and hotm. Some will have had opposite luck. If you add every draw ever made, there will be regression to the mean. It doesn’t mean some odds are more likely than others, just that as the sample size grows, the odds become more clear and consistent. You made a lot of draws, but it’s still a small sample size in the big picture.
It’s the same principle casinos work on. They use long term odds to make money. Some people win in the short run, some walk away with a lot of money. But in the end, the odds are the odds. The casino always wins. If the casino has a 2% advantage on blackjack, it doesn’t mean you’re going to win 48 out of 100. Trust me. Sometimes you win 75, sometimes you win 10.
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But for …
… also means that …
- They must keep a record of the number of heroes I already/don’t have in my roster
- They must keep a record of the total number of gems I purchased since day one
- They must keep a record of the number of pulls … since day one
- They must keep a record on my repeat behaviors that produces desirable results for me in almost everything even for a single backbag loot so to control what I can have … later on!
- They must keep me continue to poorly judge the actual probabilities of winning, even as my chances dwindles before me.
- They must keep me believe that the appearance rates are valid so the chance aspect is so appealing to me!
- They must always provide me with some 5 heroes every now and then that I don’t want … as a loss disguised as a win
- The chances (some call it luck) to get ANYTHING in this game, heroes in particular, is determined by all of the above and most probably … much much more than I can list in a single post.
Thank @LucasDaoc, for the … enlightenment.
Cheers!
P.S.
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Just offering my insight. I’m in the casino industry and I’m very familiar with “gambler’s fallacy.” In other words, they think something is going to happen soon because it hasn’t happened in a while, which isn’t true. Each event is independent. The only game that can be beat is blackjack because you’re using a fixed set of results. Casinos are even eliminating that with continuous shufflers.
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… And that it requires … skills!
P.S.
My apologies to you for one of the previous responses I made … to one of your comments.
Yes it does take some skill. And no worries. I don’t take anything personal. Another side effect of the casino industry. Thick skin lol.
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