Elemental Chest Frequency - days tracking and results > estimated between 4 to 16 days

10 days,…

:hash: Date DSL Color Chest 4* 3* EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :postal_horn: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords: :old_key:
1 2020-01-05 9 Fire Titan - TrapT - - 40 3 - 20 WE T1 x
2 2020-01-17 12 Nature Raid - Blade - - 30 10 - 20 WE T1 1
3 2020-01-26 9 Ice Monster - - - 1 30 10 - 10 TE T2 1
4 2020-02-02 7 Holy Raid - Orb, Shield - - 30 20 - 20 RE T1 1
5 2020-02-10 8 Dark Monster Damascus - 1 - 40 10 - 10 RE T2 1
6 2020-02-20 10 Nature Raid Tome Blade - - 30 5 - 10 RE T2 1
7 2020-03-01 10 Fire Monster - Blade, Blade - - 40 5 - 20 TE T1 1
8 2020-03-06 5 Nature Raid Rings - - 1 30 5 - 10 TE T2 1
9 2020-03-19 13 Nature Monster - Cape 1 - 20 5 - 10 TE T1 3
10 2020-03-30 11 Nature Monster - Blade - - 50 x 5 10 RE T3 1
11 2020-04-03 4 Holy Monster Tonic Compas - - 20 x 5 20 WE T3 1
12 2020-04-12 9 Fire Raid - TrapT,Orb - 1 30 x 5 30 TE T1 1
13 2020-04-19 7 Nature Raid Tonic Cape 1 1 20 x 5 10 RE T1 1
14 2020-05-01 12 Holy Monster - Blade,Cape - - 20 x 5 10 WE T1 1
15 2020-05-14 13 Holy Monster - Glove,TrapT 2 - 50 x 5 10 WE T1 1
16 2020-05-23 9 Ice Monster - Glove,Orb 1 - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
17 2020-06-06 14 Fire Titan - Glove,TrapT - - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
18 2020-06-14 8 Holy Titan - Orb,Shield - - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
19 2020-06-18 4 Nature Raid - Orb,Blade - 1 20 x 5 10 TE T1 1
20 2020-07-02 14 Nature Titan Tome Glove - - 20 x 10 10 WE T1 1
21 2020-07-16 14 Ice Raid - Shield,Blade - - 40 x 5 10 WE T1 1
22 2020-07-31 15 Ice Raid - - - - 40 x 10 10 WE T1 1
23 2020-08-12 12 Holy Monster - Glove,Shield - - 30 x 10 10 TE T1 1
24 2020-08-16 4 Ice Monster - Compass,Orb - - 30 x 5 20 TE T2 1
25 2020-08-22 6 Nature Monster - Shield 1 - 30 x 3 10 RE T2 1
26 2020-08-27 5 Fire Monster - Orb,Glove 2 1 50 x 5 50 WE T3 1
27 2020-09-08 12 Holy Monster - TrapT - 1 20 x 5 10 WE T1 1
28 2020-09-14 6 Ice Monster - Shield 1 - 30 x 5 20 RE T1 1
29 2020-09-25 11 Nature Monster Tome - - - 30 x 5 10 WE T1 1
30 2020-10-04 9 Fire Monster - Glove - 1 30 x 10 30 TE T1 1
31 2020-10-14 10 Fire Monster - TrapT - - 40 x 3 30 RE T1 1
Legend
Header Meaning
DSL Day Since Last
4 :star: 4* Ascension Materials, i.e. Rings, Darts, Tonics, Telescopes, and Tabards
3 :star: 3* Unfarmable Ascension Materials, i.e. Compass, Gloves, Hidden Blade, Orb, Shield, Cape, Trap Tools
EHT Epic Hero Token
ETT Epic Troop Token
:gem: Gems
:trident: Atlantis Coins
:postal_horn: Valhalla Coins
:large_blue_circle: Emblems
:champagne: Flasks, i.e. WE (World Energy), RE (Raid Energy), TE (Titan Energy)
:crossed_swords: Trainer Hero, i.e. T1 = trainer 1*, T2 = trainer 2*,T3 = trainer 3*
:old_key: Costume Keys
2019 Archive
:hash: Date DSL Color Chest 4 :star: 3 :star: EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords:
1 2019-06-01 x Nature Raid - Cape - - 40 3 10 WE T1
2 2019-06-11 10 Holy Raid Tonic Gloves 1 - 30 5 10 WE T1
3 2019-07-02 21 Holy Raid - TrapT, TrapT - - 40 10 10 WE T1
4 2019-07-18 16 Nature Monster Damascus - - 1 30 10 10 TE T1
5 2019-07-30 12 Dark Raid - Shield 1 - 50 30 30 TE T1
6 2019-08-12 13 Ice Monster - Blade, Orb - - 30 5 10 WE T1
7 2019-08-16 4 Holy Raid - Blade 1 - 30 10 50 WE T2
8 2019-08-28 12 Nature Monster - Compass - - 20 3 50 RE T1
9 2019-08-31 3 Ice Raid - Compass, Orb 1 - 30 5 30 TE T1
10 2019-09-10 10 Fire Raid - Cape, Blade 1 - 30 5 20 TE T1
11 2019-09-17 7 Nature Raid - - 1 - 30 5 10 TE T1
12 2019-09-27 10 Holy Titan - TrapT, Orb 1 - 30 5 10 RE T1
13 2019-10-04 7 Nature Monster - - - - 30 5 10 WE T3
14 2019-10-19 15 Holy Raid - Cape - 2 30 2 10 RE T1
15 2019-10-28 9 Ice Monster - Blade - - 30 20 20 WE T2
16 2019-11-06 9 Holy Raid - TrapT, Compass 1 - 30 10 10 RE T1
17 2019-11-11 5 Dark Raid - Gloves - - 30 20 20 WE T2
18 2019-11-20 9 Nature Monster - - - - 30 20 20 WE T2
19 2019-11-30 10 Holy Raid - TrapT, Gloves - 1 30 10 10 WE T1
20 2019-12-11 11 Holy Raid - Blade, TrapT - 1 40 3 10 RE T3
21 2019-12-17 6 Dark Raid - - - - 40 2 10 RE T1
22 2019-12-27 10 Dark Monster - Orbs, Cape - 1 30 10 20 TE T1
2 Likes

It actually works out to ~32 regular chests for every elemental chest. Good people, far smarter than me, have collected stats on this.

Thanks a lot. I assume 32 is the long term average number, rather than a set number.

As mentioned in one of my earlier response, I open 25-27 chests per week on a regular basis (including monster, raid and titan). But since July (when I started tracking my elemental chest loot & frequency), my average waiting time per elementary chest is c.10 days, which implies that I will hit one elemental chest per 36 regular chest - a bit higher than the 32 you quoted but still within the range I guess.

I can’t think of the guys name now EDIT @ierazo but he had a valid data set and a fairly predictive model. He used a long term numerical mean I believe. I’ve stopped stressing about chests because I can just about guess when the next one will drop. :slightly_smiling_face:

Hi @KeeSnow and @sft1965 yea my data set exceeds 150 elemental chests where the number of chests opened in between is counted. The average is almost 33 chests in between, but my personal data set (i.e. my own chests) is around 35 so Kee you are in the range, just normal variance. I have also been trying to fit the distribution of chests (so how many have <20 chetss opened, <25 and so on) but the sample size is still too small.
My best guess is that after opening the elemental a random number is generated and you will have to open β€œx” chests until getting the next elemental. So the chance at every chest is not the same. From an implementation standpoint it makes sense as it reduces the amount of computations and calls to the random generator (while also eliminating the small chance of never getting one).
Hope it helps !

2 Likes

@sft1965 @ierazo Thanks a lot guys. Super.

1 Like

11 days since last chest. Ice in place of raid. 2nd 30 emblem chest in a row so I’m guessing thats standard loot on elementals now. Titan flask works out nice with the rare that just popped up.

3 Likes

Late post…

12 days

No gem skip

Elemental Chests of 2020:

No Element Source Date 4β˜† 3β˜† (Unfarmable) Flask Emblems Gems EHT ETT A/V Coin Key Ticket Trainer C. Mar B. Item
1 Holy Monster 1-Jan-20 - -
2 Holy Monster 10-Jan-20 - Trap Tools, Trap Tools
3 Fire Raid 15-Jan-20 - Trap Tools World 30 50 1 0 5 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
4 Dark Raid 20-Jan-20 - Hidden Blade World 10 30 0 1 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
5 Fire Monster 26-Jan-20 - Sturdy Shield World 10 30 1 0 5 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
6 Ice Monster 4-Feb-20 - Sturdy Shield Titan 10 30 1 0 5 1 6 2β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
7 Ice Monster 10-Feb-20 - Hidden Blade, Trap Tools Titan 10 30 1 0 3 1 0 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
8 Fire Raid 19-Feb-20 - Fine Gloves Raid 10 30 0 0 5 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
9 Nature Monster 26-Feb-20 - - Titan 10 30 0 0 3 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
10 Nature Monster 6-Mar-20 - Compass, Sturdy Shield Raid 50 40 1 0 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
11 Ice Raid 12-Mar-20 Poison Darts Fine Gloves Titan 10 20 0 0 5 3 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
12 Fire Monster 18-Mar-20 - Hidden Blade Titan 30 40 0 0 5 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
13 Ice Raid 31-Mar-20 - Trap Tools World 10 30 0 0 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
14 Fire Raid 7-Apr-20 - Fine Gloves, Warm Cape World 50 40 0 0 10 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
15 Ice Raid 17-Apr-20 - Fine Gloves, Warm Cape World 30 30 0 1 5 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
16 Fire Monster 22-Apr-20 - Warm Cape World 10 30 1 1 20 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
17 Fire Raid 4-May-20 - Trap Tools Titan 10 40 0 1 5 1 0 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
18 Dark Monster 10-May-20 - Trap Tools Raid 10 20 0 0 5 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
19 Nature Monster 17-May-20 - Sturdy Shield Raid 10 30 0 0 5 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
20 Ice Monster 28-May-20 Mystic Rings Trap Tools Raid 10 50 0 1 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
21 Fire Raid 7-Jun-20 - Hidden Blade Raid 10 30 0 1 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
22 Dark Monster 14-Jun-20 Poison Darts Fine Gloves Titan 10 50 0 0 10 1 6 2β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
23 Fire Monster 23-Jun-20 - Hidden Blade, Warm Cape Raid 10 30 0 0 5 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
24 Fire Monster 30-Jun-20 - Hidden Blade Raid 10 30 0 0 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
25 Holy Monster 11-Jul-20 - Compass, Sturdy Shield Raid 10 30 0 1 2 1 3 2β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
26 Fire Monster 26-Jul-20 - Compass, Sturdy Shield Titan 10 30 0 1 3 1 6 3β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
27 Holy Monster 1-Aug-20 - Sturdy Shield, Warm Cape Titan 20 30 2 1 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
28 Fire Monster 10-Aug-20 - Orb of Magic World 10 40 0 1 5 1 3 1β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
29 Dark Raid 22-Aug-20 Mysterious Tonic - Raid 30 20 0 1 5 1 3 2β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
30 Holy Raid 31-Aug-20 - - Raid 20 30 1 0 20 1 3 2β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
31 Dark Monster 4-Sep-20 - 2 World ? ? ? ? ? 2 ? ? ? ?
32 Ice Titan 9-Sep-20 - Trap Tools Titan 10 30 1 0 5 1 3 2β˜† 4β˜† 4β˜†
33 Dark Raid 22-Sep-20 - Fine Gloves World 20 30 1 1 3 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
34 Fire Monster 2-Oct-20 Mystic Rings Sturdy Shield World 10 30 1 0 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
35 Dark Raid 14-Oct-20 - Warm Cape World 30 40 0 0 10 1 6 1β˜† 4β˜† 3β˜†
2018-2019 Archive
No Element Source Date 4β˜† 3β˜† (Unfarmables)
1 Holy Raid Late October ? ?
2 Fire Raid November ? ?
3 Ice Monster November ? ?
4 Fire Raid November ? ?
5 Ice Titan December ? ?
6 Dark Monster December ? ?
7 Fire Monster December ? ?
8 Dark Monster January ? ?
9 Ice Monster January ? ?
10 Holy Raid January ? ?
11 Holy Raid February ? ?
12 Fire Raid February ? ?
13 Dark Monster February ? ?
14 Nature Raid 6-Mar-19 Mystic Rings Orb of Magic
15 Nature Monster 16-Mar-19 - Orb of Magic
16 Fire Raid 25-Mar-19 - Fine Gloves, Warm Cape
17 Holy Monster 8-Apr-19 - -
18 Ice Monster 14-Apr-19 Damascus Blade Trap Tools
19 Dark Raid 24-Apr-19 Damascus Blade Trap Tools
20 Holy Raid 8-May-19 - Sturdy Shield
21 Holy Monster 18-May-19 - Hidden Blade, Sturdy Shield
22 Holy Raid 24-May-19 - Fine Gloves, Trap Tools
23 Nature Raid 1-Jun-19 - Orb of Magic
24 Holy Monster 11-Jun-19 - Fine Gloves
25 Fire Raid 21-Jun-19 - Sturdy Shield
26 Ice Monster 25-Jun-19 - Orb of Magic
27 Ice Raid 3-Jul-19 - Fine Gloves
28 Nature Raid 15-Jul-19 - Warm Cape
29 Nature Raid 24-Jul-19 - Hidden Blade
30 Nature Raid 4-Aug-19 Royal Tabbard -
31 Nature Monster 9-Aug-19 - Trap Tools, Warm Cape
32 Nature Monster 17-Aug-19 - Fine Gloves
33 Nature Raid 24-Aug-19 Mysterious Tonic -
34 Holy Monster 1-Sep-19 - Sturdy Shield
35 Nature Raid 6-Sep-19 - Trap Tools, Warm Cape
36 Ice Raid 12-Sep-19 - Orb of Magic
37 Fire Raid 22-Sep-19 - Sturdy Shield, Trap Tools
38 Holy Raid 29-Sep-19 - -
39 Ice Raid 12-Oct-19 - Orb of Magic
40 Ice Raid 26-Oct-19 Poison Darts -
41 Fire Raid 4-Nov-19 - -
42 Holy Raid 14-Nov-19 - Trap Tools, Warm Cape
43 Dark Raid 29-Nov-19 Farsight Telescope -
44 Holy Raid 3-Dec-19 - Sturdy Shield
45 Ice Monster 18-Dec-19 - Orb of Magic, Sturdy Shield
46 Dark Monster 23-Dec-19 - Compass, Compass
4 Likes

17th since tracking. Very late reporting - 19 days. Chest filling has really fallen off of late.

IMG_E3652

:hash: Date Color Chest 4* 3* EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords: :old_key:
1 2020-02-20 Fire Hero - TrapT - - 20 10 10 RA T2 1
2 2020-03-06 Fire Hero - TratT 1 1 30 5 20 WE T1 2
3 2020-03-17 Ice Monster - Cape - - 30 5 10 TI T1 1
4 2020-03-26 Dark Hero Scope - - 1 20 10 10 TI T1 1
5 2020-04-14 Dark Hero - - 1 - 40 10 10 RA T1 1
6 2020-04-26 Dark Hero - - - 1 20 5 10 TI T1 1
7 2020-05-05 Dark Titan - orb,tools - - 50 3 10 WE T2 1
8 2020-05-16 Holy Monster - shield,cape - - 30 5 10 RA T2 1
9 2020-06-03 Ice Monster - orb,gloves 1 - 40 20 20 WE T1 1
10 2020-06-17 Dark Raid - orb,cape - 1 40 5 10 TE T1 1
11 2020-07-03 Fire Monster - - - 1 50 10 20 RA T1 1
12 2020-07-14 Holy Titan - hiden blade - - 30 10 10 TE T1 1
13 2020-08-01 Fire Raid - shield - - 40 5 20 RA T1 1
14 2020-08-16 Fire Monster - shield - - 40 3 10 TI T3 1
15 2020-09-04 Holy Monster - cape 1 - 30 5 10 TI T1 1
16 2020-09-22 Dark Raid scope shield 2 1 30 5 10 RA T1 1
17 2020-10-11 Holy Raid - - - - 20 5 30 TI T1 1

Zero unfarmable mat. Zero non-silver tokens. 20 gems. No use complaining about this one, but it is scraping the bottom of the distribution. 30 emblems was nice, but I think this was also right after the emblem upgrade roll-out, so that may not even be a high count anymore. Total lack of excitement about this one is at least part of why it took so long to report.

3 Likes

Another extremely disappointing chest. :cry:
10/20/2020, Dark chest
Titan chest, 11 days apart.

2 Likes

Another long wait… 14 days… but at least loots are reasonable. No 3* farmable craps!

image

3 Likes

One in 21 months…

20 tears.

1 Like

I get about 3 a year. I guess I am lucky!

8 days,…

:hash: Date DSL Color Chest 4* 3* EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :postal_horn: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords: :old_key:
1 2020-01-05 9 Fire Titan - TrapT - - 40 3 - 20 WE T1 x
2 2020-01-17 12 Nature Raid - Blade - - 30 10 - 20 WE T1 1
3 2020-01-26 9 Ice Monster - - - 1 30 10 - 10 TE T2 1
4 2020-02-02 7 Holy Raid - Orb, Shield - - 30 20 - 20 RE T1 1
5 2020-02-10 8 Dark Monster Damascus - 1 - 40 10 - 10 RE T2 1
6 2020-02-20 10 Nature Raid Tome Blade - - 30 5 - 10 RE T2 1
7 2020-03-01 10 Fire Monster - Blade, Blade - - 40 5 - 20 TE T1 1
8 2020-03-06 5 Nature Raid Rings - - 1 30 5 - 10 TE T2 1
9 2020-03-19 13 Nature Monster - Cape 1 - 20 5 - 10 TE T1 3
10 2020-03-30 11 Nature Monster - Blade - - 50 x 5 10 RE T3 1
11 2020-04-03 4 Holy Monster Tonic Compas - - 20 x 5 20 WE T3 1
12 2020-04-12 9 Fire Raid - TrapT,Orb - 1 30 x 5 30 TE T1 1
13 2020-04-19 7 Nature Raid Tonic Cape 1 1 20 x 5 10 RE T1 1
14 2020-05-01 12 Holy Monster - Blade,Cape - - 20 x 5 10 WE T1 1
15 2020-05-14 13 Holy Monster - Glove,TrapT 2 - 50 x 5 10 WE T1 1
16 2020-05-23 9 Ice Monster - Glove,Orb 1 - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
17 2020-06-06 14 Fire Titan - Glove,TrapT - - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
18 2020-06-14 8 Holy Titan - Orb,Shield - - 30 x 5 10 RE T1 1
19 2020-06-18 4 Nature Raid - Orb,Blade - 1 20 x 5 10 TE T1 1
20 2020-07-02 14 Nature Titan Tome Glove - - 20 x 10 10 WE T1 1
21 2020-07-16 14 Ice Raid - Shield,Blade - - 40 x 5 10 WE T1 1
22 2020-07-31 15 Ice Raid - - - - 40 x 10 10 WE T1 1
23 2020-08-12 12 Holy Monster - Glove,Shield - - 30 x 10 10 TE T1 1
24 2020-08-16 4 Ice Monster - Compass,Orb - - 30 x 5 20 TE T2 1
25 2020-08-22 6 Nature Monster - Shield 1 - 30 x 3 10 RE T2 1
26 2020-08-27 5 Fire Monster - Orb,Glove 2 1 50 x 5 50 WE T3 1
27 2020-09-08 12 Holy Monster - TrapT - 1 20 x 5 10 WE T1 1
28 2020-09-14 6 Ice Monster - Shield 1 - 30 x 5 20 RE T1 1
29 2020-09-25 11 Nature Monster Tome - - - 30 x 5 10 WE T1 1
30 2020-10-04 9 Fire Monster - Glove - 1 30 x 10 30 TE T1 1
31 2020-10-14 10 Fire Monster - TrapT - - 40 x 3 30 RE T1 1
32 2020-10-22 8 Ice Raid - Glove,Compass - - 40 x 5 50 WE T1 1
Legend
Header Meaning
DSL Day Since Last
4 :star: 4* Ascension Materials, i.e. Rings, Darts, Tonics, Telescopes, and Tabards
3 :star: 3* Unfarmable Ascension Materials, i.e. Compass, Gloves, Hidden Blade, Orb, Shield, Cape, Trap Tools
EHT Epic Hero Token
ETT Epic Troop Token
:gem: Gems
:trident: Atlantis Coins
:postal_horn: Valhalla Coins
:large_blue_circle: Emblems
:champagne: Flasks, i.e. WE (World Energy), RE (Raid Energy), TE (Titan Energy)
:crossed_swords: Trainer Hero, i.e. T1 = trainer 1*, T2 = trainer 2*,T3 = trainer 3*
:old_key: Costume Keys
2019 Archive
:hash: Date DSL Color Chest 4 :star: 3 :star: EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords:
1 2019-06-01 x Nature Raid - Cape - - 40 3 10 WE T1
2 2019-06-11 10 Holy Raid Tonic Gloves 1 - 30 5 10 WE T1
3 2019-07-02 21 Holy Raid - TrapT, TrapT - - 40 10 10 WE T1
4 2019-07-18 16 Nature Monster Damascus - - 1 30 10 10 TE T1
5 2019-07-30 12 Dark Raid - Shield 1 - 50 30 30 TE T1
6 2019-08-12 13 Ice Monster - Blade, Orb - - 30 5 10 WE T1
7 2019-08-16 4 Holy Raid - Blade 1 - 30 10 50 WE T2
8 2019-08-28 12 Nature Monster - Compass - - 20 3 50 RE T1
9 2019-08-31 3 Ice Raid - Compass, Orb 1 - 30 5 30 TE T1
10 2019-09-10 10 Fire Raid - Cape, Blade 1 - 30 5 20 TE T1
11 2019-09-17 7 Nature Raid - - 1 - 30 5 10 TE T1
12 2019-09-27 10 Holy Titan - TrapT, Orb 1 - 30 5 10 RE T1
13 2019-10-04 7 Nature Monster - - - - 30 5 10 WE T3
14 2019-10-19 15 Holy Raid - Cape - 2 30 2 10 RE T1
15 2019-10-28 9 Ice Monster - Blade - - 30 20 20 WE T2
16 2019-11-06 9 Holy Raid - TrapT, Compass 1 - 30 10 10 RE T1
17 2019-11-11 5 Dark Raid - Gloves - - 30 20 20 WE T2
18 2019-11-20 9 Nature Monster - - - - 30 20 20 WE T2
19 2019-11-30 10 Holy Raid - TrapT, Gloves - 1 30 10 10 WE T1
20 2019-12-11 11 Holy Raid - Blade, TrapT - 1 40 3 10 RE T3
21 2019-12-17 6 Dark Raid - - - - 40 2 10 RE T1
22 2019-12-27 10 Dark Monster - Orbs, Cape - 1 30 10 20 TE T1
2 Likes

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