Elemental Chest Frequency - days tracking and results > estimated between 4 to 16 days

sorry … does anyone know how long the color trunk comes out?

Sorry for my english not sò good

Ogni quanto tempo viene fuori il baule colorato?

Somebody has a thread about element chest frequency on this forum.

Check this out: Elemental Chest Frequency - days tracking and results > estimated between 4 to 16 days

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From my little experience, if you fill like 2 monster chest and one raid x day plus a titan one [every 5 or 7 days], it should take from 9/10 days to 14/20 to pop out.

I do 2 of each chest per day (not titan of course) and seem to get one every 10-14 days

Im wanting to start tracking this data. What is the best format to use for aggregating it with the rest of the data? I have been skipping and I think i average 4-5 chests a day. Usually run out of skips. Still feel like 7-10 days is,my average.

Date Color Pos 4 :star: 3 :star: EHT ETT :gem: :trident: :large_blue_circle: :champagne: :crossed_swords:
2019-01-01 Holy Raid Tonic Gloves 1 1 20 5 NA WE trainer1
2019-01-11 Holy Monster - Blade - 1 20 5 NA WE trainer3
2019-01-22 Holy Raid Tonic Compass 1 1 30 10 20 WE trainer1
2019-02-11 Holy Raid - Compass - - 30 5 30 RE trainer2
2019-02-19 Nature Raid - Trap Tools 2 - 50 5 50 RE trainer1
2019-02-23 Nature Raid - Shield, Compass - 1 40 5 10 WE trainer2
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Crap… :ch

Date Colour Titan Days 4*am 3*am EHT ETT Gems Emb
03nov18 dark - - 1 1 - 1 20 -
15dec18 fire - - - 2 - - 30 -
27dec18 natureH - 12 - - - 1 30 -
02jan2019 iceM - 6 - 1 2 - 40 -
07jan2019 fireM - 5 - 1 1 - 30 -
17jan2019 natureM - 10 - 2 - 1 40 5
27jan2019 natureH - 10 - 1 - - 30 30
12feb2019 fireH - 16 - 1 1 - 30 10
23feb2019 fireM - 11 - - - - 30 10
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
Date Colour Titan Days 4*am 3*am EHT ETT Gems Emb

Mine are definitely less frequently than that. It was almost a month between my last 2! I was even using gems for a few weeks to speed up chests.

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If you scroll up slightly, you can see I had a 3 week gap between two of mine, and then got 2 more in the next 12 days.

Despite the useful guidance on general trends, I think it’s safe to say there’s still plenty of RNG at work.

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I’m not stressing. I was just upset that after not having one for so long i then didn’t even give any unfarmables in it. I did pull a 3* with one of the silver tokens. So there’s that.
RNG bad luck streak.

2 Likes

Are you spending gems to hasten the chest availability?

22 December - yellow lol this color loves me.
09 January - green.
17 January - yellow. w.t.f
30 January - yellow. :joy:
15 February - yellow - #idontknowitstheonlycoloriget
26 February - blue - #wowfinallysomethingdifferentfromholy

Today’s blue chest:

Elemental blue chest:

  • I’m kinda loosing my faith with 4* troops, from those 2 tokens only 3*…
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Note: I’m now also recording what my tournament ‘division’ was as well, in case it factors into the loot. I don’t recall what my rank was with the first two recorded chests here, but it was likely Silver.

02/25/2019: Dark/Monster Pos./Mysterious Tonic, Sturdy Shield, 30 Gems, Titan Energy Flask, 10 Sorceror Emblems
03/21/2019: Dark/Monster Pos./Dragon Bone x 1, Chainmail Shirt x 1, Scabbard x 1, Revive Scroll x 1, Gems x 40, Summon Token x 3, Loot Tickets x 6, Wizard Emblem x 10, Raid Energy Flask x 1, 2* Green Trainer, Atlantis Coins x 5
04/13/2019 [Gold]: Ice/Monster Pos./Orichalcum Nugget x 1, Farsight Telescope x 1, Fine Gloves x 1, Time Stop x 1, Gems x 30, EHT x 1, ETT x 1, Summon Token x 1, Loot Tix x 3, Barbarian Emblem x 10, World Energy Flask x 1, 2* Yellow Trainer, Atlantis Coins x 5
04/27/2019 [Gold]: Holy/Raid Pos./Dragon Bone x 1, Battle Manual x 1, Chainmail Shirt x 1, Tornado x 1, Gems x 30, Summon Token x 2, EHT x 1, Loot Ticket x 6, Druid Emblem x 10, World Energy Flask x 1, 1* Green Trainer x 1, Atlantis Coin x 20
05/22/2019 [Gold]: Dark/Monster Pos./Dragon Bone x1, Sturdy Shield x 1, Chainmail Shirt x 1, Dragon Banner x 1, Gems x 40, EHT x 1, Summon Token x 1, ETT x 1, Loot Ticket x 3, Monk Emblem x 20, WE Flask x 1, 1* Purple Trainer x 1, Atlantis Coins x 5
06/29/2019 [Gold]: Fire/Monster Pos./Meteor Fragments x 1, Warm Cape x 1, Chainmail Shirt x 1, Tornado x 1, Gems x 30, Summon Token x 2, ETT x 1, Loot Ticket x 6, Barbarian Emblem x 10, Raid Flask x 1, 1* Green Trainer x 1, Atlantis Coins x 3

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22 December - yellow lol this color loves me.
09 January - green.
17 January - yellow. w.t.f
30 January - yellow. :joy:
15 February - yellow - #idontknowitstheonlycoloriget
26 February - blue - #wowfinallysomethingdifferentfromholy
5 March - dark chest.

Wow 7 days, its a record for me; i never skip chests, this time i skipped one because it was late and i wanted to go to sleep and i had to wait 40min, so one gem wasn’t a problem even if im f2p.

Looking at these dates, it really is random, the only thing that changes is that sometimes you have to let go a titan or two and sometimes i really need food so i maybe skip a day or two without doing the raid one, but otherwise i do pretty much the same stuff, 2 monster chests and 1 raid x day plus the titan lets say every 6/7 days.

So its evident that these can pop out even after 20/25 chests completed, because i’ve read here on the forum that it should take a minimum of 30/40 before they start to show.
But clearly in my case i didnt do more then 23, bc i do 2x7+1x7+2 [only if i open a titan chest right after a elemental one so i can open 2 in 7 days].

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Yet another month gone by with heaps of skips and yet still no chest. Absolutely enraging. This should NOT be RNG. I’ve done over 75 chest total including Titan. How is this fair when there seems to be plenty that are getting them every week or so??? Pure rubbish.
No way to prove it but I think it’s tied into spending. No other explanation and of course they don’t provide any (NONE) idea how to activate a chest. I’ve had 1 purple chest this year. I skip a lot. ONE measly purple chest.

I’m not trying to be mean, but I don’t understand the point of this excercise…is there not enough data collected already to estimate the probability of having an elemental chest appear? That’s all I’m really interested in knowing…

I’m not sure if you’re legitimately asking because of word “not” in your question. But if you are asking, I would respond that I think there is enough data, and that I think the chances are ~3%.

Then you are 100% sure of the results. Good for you.

Im not. :slight_smile:

For me, it’s about ROI not only on the chest itself but everything else that goes with chasing it (long story short: it’s highly profitable across the board to chase these, and my group has developed methods to hit at least 4 chests of any type a day while reducing playing time to something manageable). For a free to play player, chasing these is also an efficient way to build up their teams quickly to help them keep pace with others.

Figuring out precise triggers helps with that, so it’s interesting to read up on this.

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Tracked data from my account if it helps:

12-18-18/12-31-18: 50 chests opened, dark chest appears as chest 51. 13 days roughly between chests.

12-31-18/1-12-19: 40 chests opened, ice chest appears as chest 41. 13 days roughly.

1-12-19/1-24-19: 43 chests opened, holy chest appears as chest 44. 12 days roughly.

The three above entries were at a point of only working 3-4 chests a day. The entries that follow reflect an aggressive 4 chests or more a day approach to triggering these.

1-25-19/2-5-19: 49 chests opened, fire chest appears as chest 50. Roughly 12 days.

2-5-19/2-9-19: 16 chests opened, nature chest appears as chest 17. Roughly 4 days.

2-9-19/2-16-19: 28 chests opened, dark chest appears as chest 29. Roughly 7 days.

2-16-19/2-23-19: 27 chests opened, fire chest appears as chest 28. Roughly 7 days.

2-23-19/3-6-19: 49 chests opened, dark chest appears as chest number 50. Roughly 11 days.

I hope that helps. I tracked loot more extensively, including emblems, after I switched to the 4 chest a day approach.

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