What is 64 days and 290 days ?
64 = average waiting time for a specific 4* hero
after 290 days there is 90% probability to get a specific 4* hero.
do we need 64 days for pulling one of epic challenge heroes ?
Yes and no. One try obviously isnāt 64 days. With the number of heroes in the portal and time for each to completeā¦based on oddsā¦thats how long it will take for people to get a specific hero on average. Some may get guardian falcon their first try. Some, it may take 2 years. RNG.
No. You can get it in the first roll or you can wait 500 days. It is probability. There will be 32 4* heroes. Assuming you can draw each one with the same probability you will be waiting - on average - for a specific hero 32 pulls (that is 64 days). But of course some players get this hero earlier and some later.
3* hero academy spend depth
Beta rumors
Based on Beta rumors. May not be true, or may be subject to change before live server
Specific 3* hero from HA05 Rare heroes
Spend depth = 10.5 days
Loot Box Unit Pricing = 47.25 days
Will only get worse when they add more 3* heroes ( looking at you Challenge events v3.0 )
Notes
Click for notes
Math
Total = 23
+1 each color
Total = 28
9 hours per roll
Specific 3* hero
Spend depth = 252 hours or 10.5 days
Loot Box Unit Pricing
log(0.1)/log(1-(1/28))= 126.6282238230916 rolls
Check (1-(1/28))^ 126.6282238230916= 0.01
126 x9 hours = 1,134 hours or 47.25 days
FIN
As always, thank you for your detailed analysis @Gryphonknight!
I cannot like your posts, as Iām currently out of likes.
Iām not thrilled by the chicken effect. As a C2P player almost 2 years in, I had exactly 3 event heroes before the BF summon: Pixie, Bauchan and Black Knight. My BF 10x yielded two copies of Shrubbear. Thatās three 3* (not counting dupe), zero 4* and one 5*.
The game is stingy with challenge coins and the Challenge Event summons arenāt good uses of gems (IMHO), so I think there are a lot of people like me who have very few (or even no) event heroes.
The portal for the event, on the other hand, looks nice. Iāll have to decide if itās worth spending on as I wonāt have many challenge coins.
do the seasonal heroes such as bunny and santa family get cursed too?
Yes, they will receive the Chcken curse too.
Only the event heroes from the retired events are not cursed (including the new rare heroes and legendary costumes for these old retired events.)
Darn, more event$, more heroe$. Can Zynga add or upgrade a building? This more challenging to programmer$ rather than new heroe$ who wear different costume$ same power$. Cmmon, the trend i$ re-inve$t, change old heroe$ to newā¦ challenge of feStival $howca$e cos$umed heroe$ in the pa$t, an upgrade.
Why did they remove 4* ascension mats from the challenge festival chest?
Gem offers are the same like the classic events?
Offers are never tested in Beta, so we will find out once the event goes live but I would expect the similar offers what we have.
In Beta we have tested the Black Friday Bonus chest.
I have just added the information what Staff sent us about the possible content.
I suppose this Bonus chest is now no different than any other Bonus chest which is not the Black Friday Chest.
As I recall that can have 4 star ascension material with a low chance.
So may this bonus will also inlcuded it.
Of course we can not be sure until someone shares a chests with a 4 star material.
In beta, since Iām in beta, petri posted that only crafting materials and emblems are included. He specifically listed ascension mats as being excluded.
I saw from update, that Jabberwock, Lady of the lake and Snow White will have costumes!
Werent Black Knight and Guardian Kong first to be featured heroes?
Thanks for explanation!
And when they will add the costumes? Next year? When the festival will arrive again? Hmm
If I understand the announcement correctly, right now only Jabberwock, Lady of the lake and Snow White will have costumes, and I suppose they will be featued too.
I suppose the remaining 7 costumes will arrive later in 3 batches too like the Tavern of Legends HoTM costumes.
I suspect this event will alternate with Circus, Slayers, and Villians.
- New Costumes for Jabberwocky, Lady of the Lake, and Snow White
- More Costumes to come in future updates!
Alright then. Thatās how you make me save even my free summons
To everything thatās bad about premium heroes costumes and how they are released, this phased roll out is just a cherry on the top. Same as with Tavern, I am not going to bother with the pulls here if I may end up pulling a hero that has their costume ready but not released yet. Only to then have to suck in more duplicates once I try to actually pull their costume.
Too bad for people who had hopes for this portal and saved for it. SG knows how to undercut when it comes to these things.
Yeah, not a good move but a typical SG move like what we already saw in the Tavern of Legends.