I haven’t seen any indication that drop rates are changing, but it takes so much data to see a change that I might not notice for months.
I have seen that they are random and streaks, both good and bad are common.
I have also seen that most players start out with low level forges, not able to craft much, and build up a surplus of many/all items, them later start crafting more for titans, challenges, and trials, and start to run out of things.
Trials did probably make it worse. I haven’t collected data on what drops for trials, but I’ve seen nothing in the game so far that had good farming (per flag) at 20WE, and that’s another regular thing that many players need to use crafted items to complete.
In other words, trials make you get a bit less crafting ingredients, while making you use more battle items.