Hello to alls!
I have used, Always, ten green heroes to grow up this heroe but not one time have up the ability. It’s abnormal, in my opinioni. It’s never hap to me in 2 yrs of play. Can You help me?
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It’s random, of course. Don’t worry too much. If you get him to maximum level without maxing his special, after that 10 1* greens is guaranteed to increase the special, or 5 2* greens, or 1 copy of Caedmon. So, you can get him specialed pretty easily.
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It won’t be a problem on a 4*. My Lancelot was still at 2/8 when he was at 2^44. He had maxed his skill before he hit 3^60.
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I know it’s random, but when you do it 20 times with a 30% chance and don’t get the upgrade, it doesn’t make any sense… it technically is statistically significant and it should upgrade 7 times…
There are heroes I don’t want to level up all the way, so using 10 1* heroes at the end is not an option. Please either reflect the percentages correctly or fix the actual probabilities
Thanks for your think!
The average would be 30%*20=6 times. But the range of outcomes in 20 attempts is quite broad.
At a 30% chance of success per feeding, somewhere around 1 time in 1250 you will get 0 successes in 20 attempts.
With 1.5M daily active players, if they each level 5 hereos a month, this sort of result will happen an average of 6,000 times a month.
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You might want to double check your math…
That’s a cumulative probability of the entire community. The probability that the same outcome will happen to the same hero (much less the same person with multiple heroes) is much smaller… these are supposedly independent events with 30% probability of leveling… (.3)^20= 3.49x10^-11 multiply that by your 7.5M events per month (1.5M*5) should give you a chance of 0.0002615 and you have 2 people here telling you it happened.
If you want to post your code, I’d be happy to debug it for you.
The probability of success is 30%, yes?
Then .3^20 is the probability of 20 successes in a row, not the probability of 20 failures in a row.
The probability of 20 failures in a row is:
.7^20 = 7.979x10^-4, or about .08%, which is 1 in 1250.
If you need help with the math in the future, feel free to ask and I’ll be happy to explain how to do the calculation.
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I’m got same problem, 3/53 without skill levelups.
I know that there are chances (frankly, near-zero) that everything works fine, but the situation looks like a bug. I think that there are to much similar topics on the forum, and most likely more people just did not write about it to igrore situation.
Hi! If you can guarantee the 30%, It level up!
@S1lly73 30% probability is not a guarantee of a level up; it will result in a level up an average of 3 times in 10.
@Ser_Dit it’s highly unlikely that there’s a bug. Particularly if you use a lot of trainer heroes, if you use a lot of 3* and 4* feeders, and if you don’t use color-matched training, then the hero has a chance of leveling way up without a special skill-up. If you’re concerned about the special, you should focus on color-matched training with 1* heroes to try to get as many special level-ups as possible for the number of feedings.
Once the hero hits 4/70, you will be able to rapidly advance the special with color-matched training. The chances are quintupled, so 10 red 1* heroes or 5 red 2* heroes will give a guaranteed skill-up.
Statistics were mentioned above, but the results do not at all coincide with the Gaussian distribution.
According to it, for one hero without level-ups I should have couple with one, even more with two, and so on. But no, all the rest of my **** heroes got 7/8 or 8/8 before 3/60, and even among *** the worst result was 5/8.
Do you always feed 10 feeders at once?
That’s ok, because it’s a Binomial distribution, not Gaussian.
And again, the probability of occurrence is really dependent on how you’re trying to level the hero. If you’re doing lots of off-color feeding or using trainer heroes, it’s much more likely that you will get to this point with no extra skill-ups.
That isn’t really relevant to whether you will have good luck or bad luck on this particular trial.
Indeed, given what you’re saying a bug seems very unlikely, since your results are tending to fall relatively centrally in the distribution. The fact that this particular leveling attampt is falling on the tail of the distribution doesn’t suggest that something is broken.
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I play to this game from 2017. I have used always 10 heroes of the same colors. Except a time, only success. It’s not a question of fortune. It’s not a bug, in my opinion, of course bit something is changed in this game.
This happened to my Li Xiu. Not 1 level up until about 2.45. I did get her maxed by 3.60 though with the last level up On 3.59… my Chao and Danzaburo are the only other ones to not hit the 8/8 mark by 3.60, curiously enough… cheeky yellows.
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There are 1.5M people, each leveling up many heroes. Even if you’ve leveled up 100 heroes since 2017, you have a pretty small sample.
If every daily active player has leveled up just 10 heroes, that’s 15 million hero levelings. We would expect 15 occurrences on the order of 1 chance in 1 million in there. The worst sequence of special leveling in there will have been very, very bad, and the best sequence will have been astonishingly good.
Indeed, going from 1/8 to 8/8 in 7 leveling attempts at 20% is about 1 in 80,000 probable. That should have happened at least a couple of hundred times over the last 2 years.
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I think that no one player play level up your Heroes in base a global statistic. Who write here need only a answer and/or confirm about a dubt or a probably problem. I can say only thanks for the support.
No one lvl up, 4/11 now. Only red * and **.