Do not pull on tavern of legends -- math analysis

Hi all, I am writing this post such as to advice every one of you of NOT PULLING in this tavern of legends summon. This is the worst portal available and all of us should not pull there to have better chances in other portals and to make SG to rework the odds, as they are being even worse with us right now. I will support my claims with basic math analysis.

1. Overall 5 star hero cost:

  • Tavern of Legends: Doing a 30 pull the expected amount of five stars is 0.78. The cost is 7500 gems so the cost per legendary hero is 9615 gems.

  • Atlantis, costumes, seasonal: Chance at a legendary hero is 3.8%, cost is 350 gems. Expected cost per legendary is: 9210 gems.
    Considering 10 pulls, at a price of 3000, the expected cost is 7895 gems.

  • Conclusions: Even at the cheapest price for the tavern and the most expensive for other portals, the tavern IS THE WORST at giving 5 star heroes per gem.

2. Non-vanilla heroes:

  • Tavern of legends: considering 30 pull, the cost is 17857 gems per legendary hero.

  • Atlantis: 1.5% chance at season 2 or features plus 1.3% chance at HOTM. Considering a 1 pull, cost is: 12500 gems per legendary hero.

  • Costumes: I consider costumes not to be vanilla, because of change in abilities plus extra HP, DEF, ATT and mana regen. so 3.8% at no vanilla heroes and considering one pull: 9210 gems per legendary hero.

  • Conclusions: Now the tavern looks even worse, as the cost per non-vanilla heroes has a wider gap against other portals. That is also considering THE HIGHEST COST for Atlantis and Costumes, whereas the LOWEST cost for the tavern.

3. Other Considerations:

  • The tavern does not give ascension mats, atlantis, costumes and season 3 do.
  • The tavern does not have featured heroes, so it is more difficult to target needs or wanted heroes.
  • The tavern brings nothing else to the table, whereas one can get very good 4* and 3* in S2, S3 and costumes.

Should one even think about the tavern?
The answer is NO. It is way better to look at S2, S3 or Costumes.

Please save yourselves disappointment and do not pull in the tavern. We should all wait until they fix this joke of a portal. I will not even use my coins.

4. Offers:

Now, let’s talk about the offers. The first one was actually a copy of the one in costumes, which is clearly better (as costumes have better overall odds).
Let’s examine the second one (30 USD).
For 30 dollars you buy 30 summons in the tavern, so you get 0.78 legendary heroes for 30 USD, which is 38.5 USD per legendary summon (and you get the 10 flasks.
Let’s compare to the last offer in Valhalla where you get 1000 coins, 3000 gems and 10 flasks. The 3000 gems add versatility as you can use them as you see fit, however we will consider them as a 10 pull in S3. With 20 pulls there you get 0.76 legendary heroes, so 39.5 USD per legendary. The difference is related to the quality though.
Same analysis, to get one non vanilla 5 star the average cost is:

  • Offer Tavern: 30/0.42 = 71.4 USD
  • Offer S3: 30/0.58 = 51.7 USD

So overall the offer in S3 allows you to get better 5 star heroes cheaper. AND THAT IS WITHOUT COUNTING THAT IT WILL PROVIDE 2 CHESTS WITH MATS, AND THAT IT GIVES GOOD FOUR AND THREE STAR HEROES !!!
Please do not buy this offer unless you are interested in losing your money.
We do not have to pull in this portal until THEY FIX THE ODDS.

112 Likes

Just going to cross-quote what I wrote in the main thread:

35 Likes

what if I really want Alberich?

2 Likes

I’ll chime in here too, may as well, this is a really good platform for SG to do pulls at deeply discounted gem costs, since it doesn’t include current HOTM. I suspect the current offers/pulls might come up a little light anyways

1 Like

Actually with respect to 5 star heroes it is not discounted but the opposite, more expensive as I showed.

If you already have the HOTM and do not want another it may make sense, but I suspect then you do not care also in vanilla heroes, so just the costume chamber is overall better, or waiting to next month for S2, S3 or Costumes again.

I’ve been trying to make the case everyone should be able to do one 10 pull @ 1000 gems and one 30 pull @ 2400 gems. Just for these events.

2 Likes

in that case you should mortgage your house.

16 Likes

@bobiscool LOL my wife definitely wouldnt understand that. ‘Honey, I chased after Alberich so we are homeless now. I didnt actually get him but I did get 200 Dawas and an Aeron’

18 Likes

Your advice came too late… :roll_eyes: :roll_eyes: :roll_eyes:

3 Likes

Kinda learned my lesson the hard way. Should have just bought the offers and just saved the gems for Valhalla.

3 Likes

Probably need a second mortgage actually.

The offer is just as bad as the odds for the portal :joy::see_no_evil: at least if you want to buy it for the gems

2 Likes

Tavern of Legends= nullllllll

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Guys we need to be strong and DO NOT PULL UNTIL THEY FIX IT!
They will not change the portal until they stop receiving money from it so LET’S TEAM UP, AND MAKE THEM TO ADJUST THE ODDS.

25 Likes

I easily cave into temptation. I swore off the forum like a month or two ago, but I came back. I’m not strong at all, I am an addict.

However, SG is really making it easy for me to continue protesting telluria/vela/clarrisa nerfs by not making any pulls and not spending anymore money, with how they’re dealing with HA, ToL, the next 4 HoTMs…

1 Like

I agree. So far they are making lots of mistakes imo.
Nerfing new heroes, not giving enough compensation for players after a nerf (that was needed, but not even iron bundles for reset?).
Hero academy IS A JOKE, and it took them 500 days? I mean cmon…
Next HOTM that make no sense, and putting some good ones in ToL with the worst odds in all portals? Cmon…
They are asking us to go play another thing it seems

9 Likes

This is what I’ll do. Buy offers (kinda good price even with terrible, terrible odds), use coins, save gems for Valhalla, notably Almur, who has at least realistic odds to show up.

Btw it is not the worst portal, it is second worst portal, just after Epic Summon that can give you HotM at 1.3%, this one can give you no S1 5* stuff at terrifying rate of 1.4%. S3 has probably best odds at 2.9%, followed by Seasonal Events at 2.8%.

Thanks for the post and the math. Describes what I was thinking. I’m not mad because I haven’t wasted gems on the Tavern. However, it is disappointing that every new feature SG releases seems to come with even higher costs than the previous better features. I can’t help but feel disdain from SG with every new feature. It’s as if they are trying to disappoint their customers and drive us away.

5 Likes

Repost this … A LOT! Work as a community to take a stand and make a change.

4 Likes

Again, let’s work together to throw up the middle finger at their greed. This game is fun. It needs to stop being expensive.

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