Most of us agree that the Tavern of Legends portal was a bad deal. To evaluate just how bad it was, I decided to take a look at the summons rates of each of the hero portals. Excluding the ToL, all except for the normal Epic summons provide a 3.8%/26.5%/71.0% distribution of 5/4/3 stars. For the Epic portal the distribution is 2.8%/26.5%/72.0%. The values sum to 101.3% because each of the portals offers a 1.3% chance at the current hero of the month.
By comparison, the ToL is 2.6%/26.5%/71.0%. The 5 star drop rate is 1.2% lower than any of the non-standard portals, and 0.2% lower than the Epic portal. This is primarily because the ToL offers a 0.1% chance at the secret bonus hero (Myztero) in lieu of the traditional 1.3% chance at the HotM.
The odds of getting a non-Season 1 5 star are as follows:
Atlantis, Valhalla: 2.9%
Epic, Elemental: 1.3%
*I am counting costumes as non-standard 5 stars.
ToL offers the worst odds of any of the special portals.
We can debate all day about what is fair and unfair. Are the other portals fair? I don’t know, that is pretty subjective. Up until this point, people have been willing to pay for those rates.
It’s a bit easier to look at the portals relative to each other. Are they consistent? Excluding ToL, they mostly are. All but the Epic portal offer a 3.8% chance at a 5 star, and of the special portals the most common drop rate for a non-Season 1 5 star is 2.9%. The major outlier is the challenge event portal, which offers only a 2.3% chance.
So what would the Tavern of Legends look like if it were consistent with the other portals? One possibility is the following:
Current HotM: 1.3%
Older HotM/Myztero: 1.6%
Standard 5: 0.9%
Standard 4: 26.5%
Standard 3: 71.0%
Something like that would begin to look more reasonable. You’ve got a 3.8% chance at a 5 star and a 2.9% chance at a non-Season 1 5 star.
However, I would offer the following as a more compelling, yet consistent option:
Current HotM: 1.3%
Featured Older HotM: 1.0%
Non-Featured Older HotM: 0.5%
Season 1 and 2 5: 0.9%
Season 1 and 2 4: 26.5%
Season 1 and 2 3: 71.0%
There would be three featured older HotMs each month, rotating but always including the most recently added hero. This would give you a higher chance each month at specific heroes. This version would also include Atlantis heroes in the standard pool. The idea would be that as each new season comes out, heroes from the prior season would get added to the pool.
Pricing would be the same: 300/2,600/7,500 for 1/10/30. Or, we could add a bonus ascension item chest and use the 350/3,000/8,400 pricing of the Atlantis,Valhalla, and Costume portals.
So, I’m curious, would that be enough for you to consider pulling from ToL again? Or have we reached a point of frustration where the odds in every portal are too low and the entire pricing structure needs to be rethought?