Data Collection: Raid Matching

I’m looking to collect certain data pertaining to the raid match-making system to shed some light on a couple of questions*:

  1. Is there a bias in the raid matching system in favor of the defender with respect to trophy count?
  2. What sort of relationship exists between trophy count and defense team power?

To this end I’d like to invite anyone who wishes to contribute to record and post to this thread the following information for all matches proposed by the raid match-making algorithm:

Attacker’s Trophy Count
Defender’s Trophy Count
Defender’s Defense Team Power

Matchups that would be included would consist of any raids that are rolled for either in the ‘raids’ screen or when re-rolling when you are unable to make a revenge raid. Revenge raids, retries and raids in which you are the defender are not included because in the former case the numbers would be different than at the time the algorithm proposed the match, while in the latter cases these do not represent unique iterations of the algorithm’s output. It is also important to include ALL proposed matches, not just those that you choose to take on.

The easiest way to record/post your data would be to create a table in Excel like the one below then simply copy and paste the contents into a reply to this thread.

Att. Troph. Def. Troph. Def. dTP
1954 1821 3333
1974 2099 3441
1974 1835 3229
1974 2106 3568
2 Likes

@Kerridoc
@Gryphonknight
@zephyr1

Have fun

1 Like

@Rigs Thanks for the tag, interesting questions.

This seems like a new, and potentially different take on the old “do attackers or defenders have advantage in raids” discussion. Looking at your forum history of topics you’ve interacted with, @Anaea, I can see that won’t be a new topic to you, and I don’t need to point you to the past posts discussing that.

So if I’m understanding what you’re after, it’s an empirical understanding of how the Elo system works in practice for trophies. (Relative reference for others: [Primer] Basic explanation of Trophies or Where do Trophies come from and why do I lose them? by @Gryphonknight)

Is that accurate?

And for this, and based on the table of data you show, it looks like you’re trying to map out the relationship between trophies and defense team power, right? Perhaps ultimately showing a curve of where a given defense tp is likely to fall in trophy count?

If so, I’m wondering how noisy that data will be, since trophy count can vary pretty radically between the “overnight low” and the “I just raided a bunch high,” and tp doesn’t reflect team composition; changes in defense meta over time; or the new introduction of classes, for that matter. So a fair amount of data would be needed, I would think, possibly with a dimension that table wouldn’t capture.

I may also be misunderstanding what you’re after.

And I think @Rigs was smart to tag @Gryphonknight and @Kerridoc, they’ll probably be far more insightful than I am being.

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We have a Who’s Who or panel of Raids Experts, with our host @Rigs :joy:

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Lol I’m no expert, I just know how to use the forum search. :laughing:

But @Gryphonknight and @Kerridoc know a ton. I learn everything I know reading posts from them and others. :slight_smile:

But I do like the idea of @Rigs as a game show / talk show host. :thinking:

3 Likes

Let’s all play E and P on a wide screen TV after we join the same alliance, you all would be invited to my house during alliance war :joy::rofl:

We can chrome cast it and have live commentary from @Rigs while we are at it

I’m sure we would all argue about formations and which tiles to move first

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@FrenziedEye Deal lol

And sorry for dragging us off topic…looking forward to further insight from @Anaea on what this is after.

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Pretty much. I’m more interested in getting at the quantitative bias that does appear to exist rather than getting into the extent to which this bias, if it does indeed exist, may or may not be considered “fair”. The genesis of this is reading comments in numerous threads referencing the +/- 300 rule, which in its simplest form did not seem particularly consistent with my experience, so I started to collect data to see if it was just my imagination/frustration causing me to see something that wasn’t there.

Again, this is essentially correct and yes I too expect that the data for this one will be pretty noisy but with a healthy helping of salt might give some idea of the range where a team’s equilibrium point is likely to fall, and what might constitute realistic expectations.

Makes sense, you’re right that that comes up extremely often in discussion, especially amongst newer players — though they’re usually after the “is it fair” piece more than a nuanced understanding of matching. I guess it’ll be interesting to see if the +/- 300 actually averages out to 0, and whether it’s different at different tp or trophy ranges.

This will be interesting. I — and likely many regular players — have a decent anecdotal sense of where my trophy count will average back to over time amidst the drops/jumps. But it’ll be interesting to see if larger conclusions can be drawn amidst the noise.

Reserving a block for myself for data logging.

defense wins/losses & revenges skipped, as requested

re-rolls noted…if I ever do one

Att. Troph. Def. Troph. Def. TP Att. TP Result Trophy Win/Loss
2214 2329 3747 3172 Win +40
2254 2405 3924 3380 Win +43
2297 2523 4068 3345 Win +48
2345 2192 3534 3380 Win +18
2363 2485 4080 3380 Win +41
2161 2363 3903 3340 Loss -15
2146 2179 3920 3380 Loss -28
2118 2045 3290 3349 Win +24
2142 2207 3876 3410 Win +36
2178 2165 3542 3380 Loss -32
2146 2099 3347 3270 Win +26
2172 2123 3448 3349 Win +26
2237 2221 3531 3245 Loss -32
2158 2098 3530 3392 Win +25
2184 2291 3856 3390 Loss -22
2162 2322 3548 3392 Win +43
2124 2225 3801 3354 Win +39
2163 2198 3804 3358 Loss -27
2136 2003 3463 3354 Win +20
2156 2213 3453 3354 Win +35
2191 1966 3446 3245 Loss -48
2108 2343 3668 3354 Win +48
2156 2255 3636 3392 Win +39
2170 2330 3649 3392 Win +43
2118 1919 3323 3314 Win +15
2116 2200 3482 3394 Win +38
2124 2241 3662 3423 Win +40
2164 1901 3379 3360 Win +11
2175 2443 4055 3360 Win +50
2225 2184 3700 3423 Win +27
2237 2476 4052 3397 Win +48
2285 2328 3546 3397 Loss -27
2258 2274 3665 3397 Win +32
2290 2554 3840 3361 Loss -11
2279 2394 3950 3361 Loss -21
2258 2030 3807 3416 Loss -48
2163 2266 3705 3416 Win +39
2202 2045 3471 3399 Win +18
2220 2413 3692 3194 Win +46
2266 2435 3717 3424 Win +44
2310 2568 4118 3397 Loss -12
2298 2226 3468 3389 Win +24
2322 2514 4100 3186 Loss -15
2307 2207 3663 3186 Loss -39

What I’ve seen so far (668 trials)…

For the distribution of trophy differences:

For the correlation between trophy count (x axis) and defensive team power (y axis)


Yeah, very noisy.

10 Likes

I’m out of forum :heart: yet again, but suffice it to say that deserves one.

1 Like

Really?! SGG is just so stingy with the drop rates of everything!!!

I’ll just have to bask in the glow of the thought then.

3 Likes

Yeah, it’s probably mostly just me, @Rigs, @Gryphonknight, and @FrenziedEye bumping up against it, but I’m out of them almost non-stop now. It does seem appropriate for E&P though lol.

Totally off topic, but interesting forum metadata:

https://forum.smallgiantgames.com/badges/35/crazy-in-love

https://forum.smallgiantgames.com/badges/34/higher-love

1 Like

I’ll trade you some of mine for some fine gloves…

2 Likes

lol no deal, I’m kinda short on gloves too :laughing:

1 Like

Thanks but I wasn’t born yesterday :joy::joy::joy::joy::rofl:

Ask @Shohoku79

Are you logging all of your matches, including those you decline in favor of a reroll?

I haven’t rerolled yet, those are the only matches I’ve had so far. (But I intend to log rerolls too.)

EDIT: FYI, I don’t tend to reroll a ton when I’m not filling a chest, and even then I don’t always bother. Unless I’m really in need of resources, I raid outside of chest filling just for fun and practice for War. And I routinely get matched with teams with 400-800+ tp more than I’m attacking with.

Result Key:
R: Reroll
W: Win
L: Loss

Note: I haven’t included rematches or revenges here just the first outcome of the pairings given by the Find Opponent button.

My Cups Their Cups Their TP Result
1950 2214 3661 W
2000 2118 3450 W
2013 2205 3777 R
2013 2292 3808 L
2002 1765 3673 R
2002 1862 3165 R
2002 2014 3560 R
2002 2189 3886 R
2002 2073 3408 L
1978 2203 3574 R
1978 1944 3575 R
1978 2016 3487 R
1978 1842 3177 W
1997 1898 3376 W
2001 1842 3271 R
2001 2092 3691 R
2001 2201 3669 R
2001 1997 3421 R
2001 2184 3637 R
2001 2160 3534 R
2001 2107 3514 R
2001 2041 3431 R
2001 2081 3441 W
1832 1914 3583 R
1832 2083 3453 R
1832 2106 3421 R
1832 2041 3405 R
1832 2083 3544 R
1832 1555 3038 R
1832 2058 3454 W
1880 2041 3296 W
1923 1990 3692 R
1923 2129 3687 R
1923 1949 3391 W
1956 2218 3797 R
1956 2061 3303 L
1918 2078 3513 R
1918 2182 3825 L
1892 1619 3179 W
1903 2155 3571 R
1903 1909 3449 R
1903 1682 3123 R
1903 2159 3843 R
1903 2010 3450 W
1942 2031 3567 R
1942 1917 3398 L
1931 1757 3161 R
1931 2055 3474 L
1940 2184 3571 R
1940 2217 3922 R
1940 1983 3310 W
1974 1993 3245 W
1963 2201 3852 R
1963 2009 3471 R
1963 2203 3511 L
2000 1934 3266 L
1934 1971 3525 R
1934 2067 3413 R
1934 1897 2124 R
1934 2198 3452 R
1934 2171 3806 R
1934 2043 3487 W
1974 1814 3421 R
1974 1766 3431 L
1948 1679 2985 R
1948 1897 3569 L
1945 2034 3438 R
1945 2187 3426 L
1871 1886 3315 W
1903 1932 3184 R
1903 1939 3377 W
1937 2069 3628 R
1937 2001 3479 L
1912 1948 3313 R
1912 2017 3415 R
1912 2145 3549 R
1912 2155 3453 R
1912 1790 3475 R
1912 1942 3277 W

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