Data Collection for Eddard's Guide To Improved Loot from Elemental Chests

TL;DR - Data collected from over 500 chests as of March 23, 2018. Data set clearly indicates A higher CHANCE at better loot from completing boss levels to fill elemental chests but RNG is still at play. The difficulty/level of the boss stage doesn’t matter.

I will provide additional data soon to back up these claims but have not had the time because we are PCSing (military move) IRL.

HUGE THANKS TO EVERYONE WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THE DATA SET!!! I WOULD LIKE TO PERSONALLY THANK CENSURE AND EVERYONE WHO CONTRIBUTED FROM HEATHENS OF SPARTA AND THEIR ALLIED PARTNER ALLIANCES.

Since i cannot find a post that outlines the improved loot from filling elemental chests with the same color boss levels, I thought I would put one together with information of where to fill elemental chests and my own data that I have collected to support it.

The Premise is simple : If you get an elemental chest, fill the chest with the same color monsters as the chest on a boss level that you can complete. What is a boss level ? A boss level is any level (1-3 per province) that has the larger icon / crossed swords over the stage. What proof do you have that the loot is better? None, other than the sample that I have collected which is around 150 elemental chests which I believe is still a pretty small sample.

Boss levels to fill chests by color (high to low):

Red: 20-7, 20-4, 19-6, 19-4, 1-5

Yellow: 10-6, 9-7, 9-4

Green: 18-7, 18-5, 17-5, 7-5, 6-6, 6-3, 2-6

Blue: 14-5, 13-8, 13-5

Purple: 23-6, 23-3, 22-7, 22-4, 21-7, 21-5, 16-7, 16-4, 15-7, 15-4, 12-5, 11-7, 11-4, 8-4, 5-5, 4-3, 3-4
Note for purple: 23-11 is the highest boss level to complete the elemental chest but not worth it as far as energy and difficulty level.

You want to fill your elemental chest with the same color boss level monsters.

A normal elemental chest will contain (12 slots total) - 2 base slots ( food and iron), 1 slot for an ingredient, 2 slots for ascension materials, 1 slot for a battle item, 3 slots for summon tokens, 1 slot for a flask, 1 slot for a trainer hero. From what i have noticed there is a modifier that goes into the chest per boss level monster defeated that gives a higher chance per piece of loot for that specific item to be a higher tier roll. Since it is still a roll based loot system than the random chance can always occur but I believe based on my sample size that there is an increased roll chance from filling the elemental chest in this way. I have also noticed that the chest has a low chance to roll nothing/ 0* in any given category other than the base slots.

If you want to fill your elemental chest in this manner then post what you get from opening it then I can expand upon my data and maybe figure out the exact percentage chance that each boss level monster adds to each piece of loot etc. Line id eddardofwinterfell.

Looking forward to figuring out the RNG!

Research so far 152 samples total:

slot 1 - food

slot 2 - iron

slot 3 - crafting ingredients - (72) 4*, (57) 3*, (11) 2*, (0) 1*, (11) 0*

slot 4 - ascension materials - (57) 4*, (49) 3*, (25) 2*, (21) 1*, (0) 0*

slot 5 - ascension materials - (58) 4*, (63) 3*, (19) 2*, (12) 1*, (0) 0*

slot 6 - battle item - chose not to display because the value of items seemed irrelevant

slot 7 - summon token - (68) epic hero, (53) epic troop, (31) “normal” summon, (0) 0

slot 8 - summon token - (45) Epic hero, (47) epic troop, (33) “normal” summon, (27) 0

slot 9 - summon token - (54) Epic hero, (58) Epic Troop, (37) “normal” summon, (3) 0

slot 10 - gems - data not collected / seemed unaffected

slot 11 - flask - (47) world energy, (42) Raid, (36) Alliance, (27) 0

slot 12 - trainer hero - (37) 2*, (61) 1*, (24) 0*

I would like to think that this strategy is more than just RNG but this is what I have and it points towards Elemental chests having better loot if filled with same color boss levels.

Cheers!

23 Likes

I just did an ice chest last night, so knowing my luck it’ll be a while before I can test and report back results. So you want to know chest element, stage used to grind, and the loot results, right?

yes please. you can do screen shots too if that is easier. line id eddardofwinterfell

Z[quote=“Eddard, post:1, topic:18956”]
You want to fill your elemental chest with the HIGHEST possible level of same color boss level monsters.
[/quote]

I’ve heard a number of people postulate this, but have yet to see any evidence to back it up. Have you confirmed this, or just relying on the common but unproven idea?

My only data here is that I intentionally finished a purple chest on the final boss, and the loot was indistinguishable from the other chests I’ve finished on early levels like 7-4, 7-5, or 8-7.

I posted all of the findings. I feel like it has been holding true for the most part but would like a larger sample to confirm or dismiss it. Feel free to post your loot or screen shot it to my line id eddardofwinterfell

I posted this in an earlier thread…an Ice chest I did on Saturday at stage 9-9:

Very interesting. Let me make sure I’m understanding correctly – you think filling an elemental chest with high level bosses yields better loot than just filling on a low level with normal monsters? Do you have any samples filled on low level non-boss levels to make a comparison? I have a small sample size of just 20 elemental chests, and in those I’ve gotten 16 epic hero tokens (0.8/chest) which is lower than your data ~1.1/chest. Epic troop token is 0.45 compared to your 0.67. 4* ascension 0.3 vs 0.76. 3* ascension 1.2 vs 0.74. The difference between our 3* and 4* ascension rates is particularly interesting, and may support the idea that farming higher level bosses bumps up the loot tier.

I typically aim to just fill them as fast as possible, almost always on a low energy level. Some colors it ends up being a boss level and some not. Could be RNG but you might be on to something. I’m still a bit skeptical because low sample sizes (especially mine) and I’m not sure what they would make it complicated like this without in some way suggesting to a player that filing at higher levels is better. Are all the samples from you or did you get some from others? I could see how people would be more likely to post drops from a good chest rather than a bad one, skewing the data.

Now, something else to consider. If this is true, would filling a normal monster chest on high level boss levels yield better loot from them? If so, that might be easier to test because they occur much more often.

3 Likes

The data is from multiple people and I had never considered that it might have been skewed by people only sharing the “good” loot they got because we were working toward creating an accurate sample. Otherwise, there was not a control group collecting loot from normal lower levels. My sample is too small at 152 so this was an effort to try to grow the sample. So now i have 152 chests filled on boss levels and 1 filled on 9-9 and relative numbers from your 20. Maybe we’ll get there. Its been 2 hrs and I already have this additional information. Let’s keep it rolling. It’s a theory.

2 Likes

Would you and your group be interested in working together to collect more data? I’ve been thinking about making a Google Form for people to fill out after each chest they open. We could make one together to make sure we ask all the right questions.

I finished a dark chest last week and this is my loot

I completed using provinces 8, 11 & 12 the ones with Purple bosses. I play mostly these levels to fill chest as they have more heros, better loot and uses less flags. So seems to fit well with your theory

Absolutely. line id eddardofwinterfell if you want to send me more info.

Eddard, I will send a FR on Line and ask all of the people in our 4 alliances to send me Screen shots of their rewards and the type of Elemental box along with the province they used to fill the chest.

So, you believe that devs wrote codes and scripts to track which level you did to fill out Elemental chests? An invisible ‘weighting system’ simultaneously tracked with specific color hero quantity?

I doubt it.

But, I’ll try anything for more ascension loot.

I think the devs have been piss poor at best with transparency as far as any actual numbers relating to anything and are leaving up to the community to figure it out. But hey, why not?!

This is really curious an interesting, thank you to take your time to do it and share it.

I have just one doubt: even if the way you fill your chest may influence how your reward is, compiling data from 150 elemental chests means that you go through various updates and version of the game, and there’s no way to know if this data has be influenced by that and that your percentage reflect the actual version of the game.

But out of curiosity i can surely try it :slightly_smiling_face:

2 Likes

Just wondering, how do the rare quests fit into your research? Stage 5 of any of those quests has always proven more of a challenge than anything I’ve come across in the provinces…

Unless there’s been a marked change, loot is determined at chest spawn time.

This has been confirmed by someone’s asking the developers directly as of 1.9.

How fast, or where your fill the chest, is irrelevant to the drops unless 1.10 was a substantial departure in how it is handled.

Another question: you’ve had over 150 elemental chests or are you aggregating data?

6 Likes

@Revelate I did my last 3 or 4 color chests in province 3-8 to fill and was never this disappointed with the loot. I got mostly tall boots and a non farmable 3* ascension once. Also not a single gold token, either troop or hero, in any of the chests.

By the way does this mean thats also the case (to get better loot for stronger monsters) for the nornal monster chest?

Unless this has changed in 1.10 it’s simply not how the game works.

Many many people have reported elemental chest loot sucking as of 1.9 and maybe earlier, and of course my stupid alt pulls a tonic I desperately want on my main out of a Holy chest yesterday.

I want to see a LOT of data to disprove the conventional wisdom that was confirmed by a developer when asked (that the chest loot is determined at chest spawn time, so regardless of how or what you do it is what you get).

I’d note that this may have changed for raid chests with the new tiers, maybe, but I’m seriously leery of suggesting this has changed and doing a grave disservice to the majority of the player base without a lot more evidence.

Your mileage may vary, but as of now I’d only want to see samples from 1.10 and there’s just no way anyone has 152 samples and even then you’d need an order of magnitude more most likely, and then some since you need two test cases. I’m even willing to contribute but it’s going to take a long time to do given the rough 3% chance to trigger a special chest.

3 Likes

Aight, I get your point.
So I’ll continue with willing to believe what the OP said. For me it’s more fun to think it gives better loot for stronger opponents. It frees me to do the lower levels over and over again (including for farming items to craft stuff).
I also doubt that getting a hotm by throwing gems in summon on the very first minute it changes to the new hotm gives you any advantage in chances but I like to believe it. :slight_smile:
The lack of proof for “possibilities to enhance your chances” given by the devs forces you to believe such things imo.
If it’s now true or not I like to believe it.

So with

means that the new hero chest is determined on which raid rank you are if it spawns?
That could be proven if you are for example at 1700 cups, let the chest spawn and finish the chest with more than 1800 cups, wouldn’t it?

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