I have been periodically keeping up with this thread, but there are some things I must point out:
- Looking at starting boards is useless. There are 35 tiles on a starting board and the average number of tiles I use in a game (taken over a sample of 110 games) is a little over 100. I would suggest that most people are the same.
Please note - this means that there are, on average, over 135 random events in every game. A game is not a single, random event. Every tile is a random event.
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Confirmation bias is real. However, it works both ways. People who want to see randomness in a game will do so, just as much as people who want to see bias.
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In the games I recorded, I exclusively used a 4+1 combination (the one being an off-colour healer, generally a purple 4 star). There is absolutely a bias against whichever colour the ‘4’ happens to be. I haven’t finished compiling the stats yet, but there is no doubt to this.
HOWEVER (and this is a very big HOWEVER)
My win rate is well over 90%, even with that bias against me. And almost all of the time, my opponents were more powerful than my attacking team. Most of the time, more than 400 points more powerful. For reference, my attacking teams have a power of 4000 to 4150. I can, even with a biased board, take down a 4600+ team.
Please note that this does not include wars as they are a different kettle of fish.
Think about it. With 4 heroes of the same colour, I need 4 or 5 matches of that colour to either wipe out my opponent, or put them into a position where they can’t win. With this combination, it takes 6 tiles to kill, from 100% health, most opponents (not counting weak and strong colours) and 3 to 5 tiles to take down an opponent weak to my colour. By the time my fast heroes are charged, I usually have one or two dead enemies.
If that bias was not there, it would be extremely rare to lose a raid, and that would be a massive demotivator. Almost all tower defenses would be losses. Without that bias, my win rate would be almost 100%.
Having said that, I am not a fan of the bias. It does ruin player’s perception of the game and create an aura of it being unfair, even though it is simply a balancing mechanism.
Instead, I think there should be other ways the battles are balanced. Better AI is a good start (targeted special attacks, etc). Also, SG could tweak the damage and timing of hits (these have already been manipulated, hence the need for tweaking).
There are better ways to make the game more balanced. SG needs to be a little less lazy about it.