Coitjweunewe 456353

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All I know is I have never in my entire E&P career received anything useful from a regular monster chest.

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There are too many coincidences…

I dont get it … maybe explain a bit?

If you follow the links you will see that the same good drops happenned to the same chests in the same day to multiple people.

Just like once the recruits 2 dropped a ett to all people doing it.

There are 2 million players. Statistically anything can happen. Absolutely anything. :slight_smile:

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This happens all day every day. But only some days does it happen that a person to whom it happens announces it publicly, and others chime in, making it seem like something exceptional just happened to several people.

The coincidence here is that it happened to several vocal people. But it happens all day every day.

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Yeah my thought exactly.

You will be amazed at how many cars like yours you see when you drive a specific car, where before you simply didnt notice.

So you bought a new green Colorado … a week later … man I saw 10 green Colorados.

Its all deception to the mass available

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Could be…

Dark chest to 3 people the same day - why not 2 dark one bllue/red/holy/green?
And aprox the same loot.

Mv gives almost the same loot same day for several people.

Also same for regular monster chest. same day. good drop…

3 different cases, good drops, similar drops, same color…

makes you wonder… :slight_smile:

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same day :slight_smile:
20 asasasa

@Elpis @nes @Bertus

and if you check above rings posts, you can see two consecutive golden tokens posts.

I’m not so inclined to think it is coded just for a matter of numbers.
Let’s make some assumptions.

Let’s say you average open 2 MV every 3 days and you find one 4* ascension material every 2 months. It is a possible scenario? I guess so.

This makes 40 MV every 2 months, with one 4* ascension material.
It makes something like 2,5% chance to get a random 4* ascension material, 0,5% of a specific (in this case, mystic rings).

There are over 1 million players login everyday (maybe much more right now), so the chance someone get that specific ascension material are 1.000.000* 0,5% = 5000 players

Of this 5000 players, 2 or 3 of them post on the forum.

It is quite possible.

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Gotta love ye ole confirmation bias:

event X is observed twice

“I don’t think this is a coincidence anymore”

event X is observed again

“SEE!! I told you it wasn’t a coincidence!”

These are the fallacies in this reasoning:

  1. You only see what you observe. While you were observing event X, a lot of other events were also happening, and you never saw those.

  2. You attribute different values to different observations. A rare event is valued higher, so you’ll be more inclined to remember it. And when it happens twice, it gets even more emphasis in your memory. And then it happens thrice!!! POST THE THING ON THE FORUM THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING!!!

This is basically a side effect of how the human brain stores and interprets information, paired with the limitation in the amount of events we observe, which are basically only our own every mythic visions and the limited subset of mythic visions results that are reported by others.

But yeah, all the randomness in this game, it’s coded. That’s true.

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I did receive a Mystic Rings thru the monster quest and a telescope thru the MV, early in the game, first month, and was like : what’s that? I can’t do anything with that…
But it appears, I got to grind 6 or 7 months to have 5 others… :grin:

Back to the topic, I am following all my AM, Token since August and didn’t see any pattern for now… I had same elemental quest like others replying here and I don’t recall having their luck either :wink:

You just have to see war quest, some people of the same alliance got good loot other don’t, for the same wars…

:+1::ok_hand::clap::ok_hand::+1::ok_hand::clap::ok_hand::+1::clap::ok_hand::+1::clap: :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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and from the other 999500 there are like 2.5-0.5=2% meaning 20000 that get asc item different than the 5000 ones, meaning that also 8 or 10 also post on this forum of them post on this forum as the 2 3 ones that posted the same.

where are the posts of those 8 or 10??? not 1 of them to post???

statistics goes both ways.

am I wrong or do you agree with my stat analysis? :slight_smile:

my bad there were 3 golden tokens in a row posted :stuck_out_tongue:

Yes, it shoul be.

But don’t forget that this thread has 20 replyes, and the only person that has “noted” and post this coincidence is you, the OP.

I don’t want to say it is completely impossible.
Just that with this data it could be anything.

Even a bug that gives only for that day rings on mystic vision.

What @Bertus and often @Brobb say it’s true.
More often then not we don’t see patterns.
We WANT to see it.

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