Chances of getting repeats from Training camps

It seems like once a TC finally gives you a certain hero for the 1st time, it increases your chances of getting it again (which would lower your chances of getting a hero you don’t have). For example, I have had 2-3 training camps going at level 20 for maybe 8-10 months now, and 6 days ago I finally got a Sonya (my last regular 4*), and today I got another one. Seriously, it took me over 8 months to get a Sonya, then six days later it gives me a 2nd one?? The same thing happened about 2 months ago with Skittleskull. I have 3 Marjana’s and 2 Elena’s. Why?? Why not give me one of the other two red 5*’s I don’t have? After I got my 1st Lianna, my 2nd came shortly thereafter. Again, why not a different one? I may be wrong, but like I said before, it seems like once the TC finally gives you a new hero, your chances of getting it again are increased (not just the fact that you have one, so you will most likely get another, but that the % changes of you getting certain heroes with the RNG). I know it isn’t designed to only give you heroes you don’t have, but it is uncanny how many times I finally got a hero for the first time, then about a week or so later I get another one. I am not complaining, just trying to figure this out.

If you grab 5 red 5* among 4 possibilities, there’s around 18% chance you’ll get at most 2 different ones. Not such a low chance, is it?

Idk but i had this suspicion too.
Got 3 Kashhrek (one 2 days after the other) 3 Domitia (first one was from a pull but the day after got one from the tc20 and yesterday got another lol), 2 Justice, 2 Caedmon, 2 Kiril etc ect but im still missing Rigard, Sabina, Wu. For Kashhrek I’ve waited a lot since i wanted him so bad for my tank position. When i finally got it it was already too late bc i was past that stage, then got two more lol.

Good point, I hadn’t looked at the chances like that, but still, it is odd how it took me 8 months to get one Sonya, then 6 days later I got a 2nd one. That phenomenon has happened to me quite a few times. I don’t get something for a very long time, then I get a 2nd almost immediately after getting the 1st.

RNG streaks

The odds stay the same. But RNG is streaky. So the results often have streaks of heroes.

Until last month I had no green 5* heroes. In one day I got all Classic green 5* heroes except Lianna.

My most common green 4* hero summoned is Melendor.

Notes

I currently have 34 heroes waiting in legendary training, until collected they take up zero roster space. I only collect when leveling a hero past level 60 . I am also waiting to see what Hero Academy brings.

Click for boring math

If you are trying for a specific hero, RNG can cause you to wait a long time.

I have played since 2017-September and just got my first Boril, but still no Cyprian. Luckily I got Wu Kong early. But Boldtusk eluded me for a long time.

FIN

3 Likes

If it makes you feel better, I have 4 Domitia from tc20.

1 Like

Thanks for the input! The RNG definitely is streaky (I like that description). I am thankful that I just got my last regular 4* (Sonya), I have been wanting to get her for quite a while. I am mostly F2P (except for the Valentine’s Day special, I would buy more of those if they were offered), so I understand that it will be a long time before I get all of the regular 5*'s, if ever.

Thanks for the math, it is more complicated than I know how to do. I started keeping track of my TC level 20 pulls for a couple months now (just color and rarity), but the math percentages on that are easy to figure out. Right now I am up to 142 on paper, but have collected waaaaaaaaaay more than that.

As far as getting certain heroes, I’m not super concerned. I think being F2P has kept my attitude pretty good about not getting everything that I want. And when I do get something that I want, I am pretty excited about it. The math on figuring out the chances to get certain heroes is definitely beyond my math 101 level. I wouldn’t know how to factor in multiple players to see how long it would take to get a certain hero.

Some heroes I don’t mind getting repeats, while I like getting repeats of others. My most common green in Kashhrek, I have 3 of them. I just got my 2nd Melendor about month ago. Both of which I am happy to have multiples :slight_smile: Same goes with my 2 Sonya’s.

2 Likes

Boldtusk seems to be elusive for many of us. You’d think, considering the size of him, he’d be much easier to find? :wink:

6 Likes

from 2 camps for 10 days i get 3 times Sabina…

2 Likes

Not trying to brag here, but I have 2 Boldtusk’s as well. Another hero I am happy with getting again. Only one of them has been leveled up at all though. That is pretty much the case with all of my doubles and triples.

2 Likes

Lucky! I would love to get another Sabina! I just got my first one about a month or so ago. I haven’t started leveling her up yet.

1 Like

Dude! I would love to get one of those (not four, but definitely at least one :wink: ).

1 Like

I’ve got 2 Rigard pop out from both tc20 about the same time, then 2 Wu and 2 Chao in a week. 3 Graymane in a row.

1 Like

So far it seems like I only get heroes in quick succession when I receive one for the 1st time. I guess that makes my odds look a little better when I finally do pull a Leonidas :wink:

2 Likes

I’ve had 2 sartanas pop out back to back.

But the chicken dinner goes to obakan, 3 of my 7 total TC20 5* have been oby, and I pulled one from the december atlantis gate to boot.

2 Likes

I want that one too!! I have only pulled one purple 5*, Sartana. I am happy with her, but Obakan would be very nice! Thankfully I have at least 2 5* hero’s of every color, but my 2nd in purple was the HOTM Khiona, and in yellow was a Justice from an Atlantis summon. I like both of them though, and not upset about either pulls.

2 Likes

I am not upset either, it’s important to have options, but I admit that my obakan triplets (one was rage fed) are at the bottom of my current list for tabards. I have kunchen done, and then sartana up next. Then it’s aeron, domitia, and obakan, and I think there are arguments for picking the others over poor old oby.

1 Like

Right now I am working on my 4* heroes. I have enough ascension materials for four in each color. I don’t have enough for a 5*, close, but not enough. I am hoping by the time I finish leveling up my 4*'s, I will have enough ascension materials for one of my 5* guys.

1 Like

Excellent strategy, the 4s are going to be the backbone of your bench for a long time and there’s some fantastic ones that you will keep using even as you acquire 5s.

(Oh and my TC20 also has a fondness for kashhrek, think I’ve had 4 of them, 2 caedmon several months in, and no melendor as yet… it’s all a work in progress)

Good luck!

2 Likes

You know BobJohnson I generally see these posts and shake my head. In your case I can see you feeling that way…all I can say is RNG is a funny thing.

2 Likes

Cookie Settings