Quick query for anyone with a better head for math than me (which is practically everyone, including my 11 year old kid).
Just launched a Raid. Bastet was the enemy tank.
As usual Bastet fired first… 45% chance for allies to dodge special skills.
My team were in very poor shape so i launched everything that was charged… Matilda, Alucard and Goseck. Total of 13 potential hits from those three specials.
12 were dodged.
Basically, Bastet got a fiend from Matilda and everyone else dodged everything I threw at them.
Anyone know how to work out the odds for that?
May 24, 2023, 5:16pm
Not sure but it’s ‘maths’ not ‘math’, only Americans say it incorrectly.
Hope it helps
BAHAHAHA. Well, Im in UK and normally say maths, but i figure there’s a lot of Americans here and i was gonna get pulled about it either way. Cant win
May 24, 2023, 5:24pm
The probability of that particular outcome (exactly 1 hit lands and 12 misses) is 0.049%.
The hits follow a binomial distribution with the following probability mass function:
Hence the probability of landing exactly 1 hit (k = 1) out of 13 hits (n = 13) with the probability of success being 1-0.45 = 0.55 equals:
f(1,13,0.55) = Pr(X = 1) = (13,1) * 0.55^1 * (1-0.55)^(13-1) = 13!/(1! * (13-1)!) * 0.55^1 * (1-0.55)^(12) = 0.00049 = 0.049%.
The probability of landing 1 sucessful hit
or none is 0.052%.
It’s easy: (12*100) / 13 = 92.30%
45% skill , 92.30% reality
Come on now. Americans speak American, not English. That’s why it’s “Math” and not “Maths” here. Alright!
May 24, 2023, 5:49pm
Sure, because in England you study histories, psychologies, and economicses as well.
May 24, 2023, 5:54pm
Thats right IF the evenrs are really independent. I often observe similiar behaviour, no dodge at oll or dodge everything. With revive or resurrection its the same, often no fighter revived, in the next battle one of them revived five times in a row.
If they cache some flags or seedings for rng, we would have some couplings of events, we can no longer treat them as independent. This is in better accordance with the observations of many players.
Ungortunately without knowing the used algorithms, which Parameters were cached and how long, no prediction can be made.
May 24, 2023, 7:22pm
Someone called for the Mathemagician?
I suppose I need to change my name to Maths Teachers.
May 24, 2023, 7:34pm
Spot on Maths-Teacher
not Teachers lol! Still some way to go and nothing personal
May 24, 2023, 7:44pm
Lol me again, I have that negative effect I think.
But two negatives make a positive, right?
@Luna, ages since I’ve seen that
May 24, 2023, 7:56pm
That’s probably the funniest Michael Macintyre ever was.
I love my visits to Murica but it’s a strange place devoid of the letter U
Interesting… How it would be with our bot?
1-45 = dodge
46-100 = hit
@discobot roll 13d100
Edit: 7 dodges, 6 hits
May 24, 2023, 8:12pm
devoid of the letter U
Hah! Can you elaborate on this a bit please?