Black Friday Summon?

Branwen, let’s say you want a Magic Tower hero. Your chances to get one are as high here as they are on the Magic Tower portal. And of course you get 3* - here and in all similar games.

How did you come up with 3.8? The pic clearly shows 2.3

  • HOTM + Featured for 3.8.

Which is explained by them so not really sure why I’m explaining it again…

Mabey in this deal we can chose the hero we actually want the most like one special draw

Hey SG,

If the above deal was $99
I bet close to half-a-mill would purchase…
Nice math for you

Black Friday Discount!
Weeeeeeeeee

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But it’s not a 3.8 chance. It’s 2.5 followed by 1.3, I’m sure someone can do the math to work out what the overall percentage equates too… but that’s not me.

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:point_up_2: this seems right. Is it not?

@Cheds @Suicide_Bunny @ferg

You added the bonus draw?
How does the side 1.3% get piled into the main course?

It does seem that you:

1.3%.
Is the bonus draw

Here’s the maths. Like I said, it had already been done

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giphy

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Maybe the easiest way to see this is to look at the chance that you DON’T get a five-star on a particular pull:

That’s 97.5% chance for the standard pull of NOT getting a 5*. Regardless of the results of that one, you have a 98.7% chance of NOT getting Balbar. So the chance of getting a total goose egg from one pull is 97.5% * 98.7%, or 96.2325, which means you have a 3.7675% chance of getting SOME 5* on any particular pull. It’s not exactly 3.8%, but there is also a tiny (0.0325%) chance that you get TWO 5* from the single pull.

(Technically, you also get a bonus pull on your bonus pull, so there is an incredibly small chance of getting one 5* and two Balbars on one pull. The chance is so small that I’ll ignore that.)

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Kerridoc’s post is correct. That doesn’t contradict with my post. It’s really simple logic. Yes, if you are doing single pull, your chance of not getting legendary is a bit higher than 100%-3.8% (ferg presented more accurate math), but then you also have chance of getting two legendaries which offsets that difference. For single pull, you are looking at separate roll for 2.5% and separate roll for 1.3% that are not correlated. From 10,000 people doing a single pull, 247 people will get a legendary non-Balbar hero, 127 people will get Balbar and 3 people will get both. That’s still 250 legendaries and 130 Balbars given out for 10,000 single pull attempts; 3.8% (or… 377 satisfied players…3.77%). If single person is going for more pulls, that 3.8% is what are going to see in the long run. 1,000,000 pulls - 38,000 legendary heroes; 3,8%. You could turn it around and say it’s actually 1,038,000 pulls if you count all the heroes you get instead of the pulls you paid for - if you look this way then ~3.66% of pulled heroes are legendary. And that’s not considering bonus roll over a bonus roll. It’s easier to use numbers like 1,000,000 for visualizing probability as pulling 100 times doesn’t mean you will get ~4 legendaries; may get 0, may get 8 and both events are more or less as much likely. The bigger sample the closer you arrive at the odds; in small samples you risk getting extremes. If you get legendary+hotm from a single pull that doesn’t mean the probability for 5 star hero on that pull was 200%. I really don’t know how much easier/more visually I can explain it than on the post quoted by Cheds. Especially that I am really just rounding up and simplifying it to help others evaluate their chances and compare to other portals; someone better at maths than me may go ahead and figure out the exact odds of successful pull given the amount of tries etc. But if one can not understand simple visualization, I don’t see them understand Bernoulli trials.

Some people just won’t ever get how probability works, how can it be measured etc. So how about those just settle for the fact that it’s the biggest chance to get a non-S1 hero from any portal in the game and skip the part what nominal of that chance is. It will be easier for everyone. I am really done arguing about that, same as I am done arguing with antivaxxers, flatearthers and all the other rage-inducing internet warriors that in the end will just post a fancy gif or meme when they lack solid arguments.

3.8% is still low enough for you to be disappointed most of the time. So if you are disappointed, it doesn’t mean you are being deceived or that the odds are lower than stated etc. It just means the probability works as intended and you are just on the wrong side of luck.

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Let’s be honest.

The odds of getting a 5* are exactly 50/50.

When you do a summon you either get one or you don’t.

Simples.

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Yup! Exactly that. And then when you don’t get any 5* 4 times in a row, someone is definitely stealing from you.

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It seems clear to me that it’s a 2.3% chance of getting a non-featured 5* legendary.

If I do 100 summons, each individual summon from that 100 has a 2.3% chance of getting a non-featured legendary hero.

Just like rolling a dice, it never changes it is purely and simply always a 1 in 6 chance of getting the number 5 if that is what you want.

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In some cases, maybe most even…
A meme doesn’t convey enough info!
This has always been a feature
Of her character. One most enjoy.

But I don’t perceive her as any of the things in your above quote.

I see this tho:

And agree with it!

She did say:

It was wrong to add them!

And the memes became focused :fire:

You felt insulted. Ok…
So then "go back to you recruiting bump"
Was equally difficult to digest

Meh…

I can’t say much.
I do the same…
Carry on!
Imma pull a 2021 and walk away :joy:

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Maybe I overreacted there. But when I present something, data, calculation, anything, spend time on describing example to help - and in response I get “youarewrong_dance.gif” I don’t treat such conversation companion anyhow seriously. Provide me with some real arguments to prove me wrong and we can discuss, heck, if I see I am wrong I will admit it right away. But I won’t give respect where it isn’t due.

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I know someone else who does this…
R e g u l a r l y
It can be annoying, I admit.
More often tho, I find myself laughing at it. These days, Opposing view points have tripwires and grenades between them
maybe it was always this way. But I think the screen has something more to do with it.

Instead of a conversation where ears are necessary. Our eyes…

Deliver verdict, instantaneously

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Yeah and the chance of seeing a living dinosaur on the street is 50/50 - you either see it or you don’t.

And here’s the awesome thing. You aren’t wrong.

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30 pull all I got are 3 stars and 4 stars, NONE of them are 5 stars.
worst pull ever
i have been playing for 3+years and this thx giving made me wanna give up on this game.

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