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20 Math Transparency characters
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That deal expires Friday morning. May be new offers actually on black Friday itself as the portal runs through weekend
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True, or they may wait until Monday for a “Cyber Monday” offer … Still… I won’t hold my breathe on anything worth while.
This offer is horrible can’t be the only offer during the portal
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Is it only this month, or will it continue for the next month? thank you
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Only this month so no chance for December hotm if you wanted to wait.
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3.8% for a legendary hero and no S1s - I think we’ve now experienced the top of SG’s generosity.
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adding those up is incorrect 
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Yup, if you’ve done the math the correct way it would be even more (since you can hit the 2.5% and then get HotM on top of it) - but I am not that engaged in maths. 
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more wrong, imo; but ok!
gl on your pulls! yup, l(uck)!
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I will only observe the window of very good heroes, without the possibility of acquiring one, or making invocations, because I live in Argentina
Do 1,000,000 pulls. With these odds you get:
2,000 featured heroes
23,000 legendary heroes
= 25,000 legendary heroes + 975,000 non-legendary heroes
Now extra roll for Balbars from each pull:
For legendary heroes 25,000 * 1.3% = 325 Balbars
For non-legendary heroes 975,000 * 1.3% = 12675 Balbars
= 13,000 Balbars
So you get 25,000 legendaries + 13,000 Balbars. 38,000 legendaries in total. For 1,000,000 pulls that’s 3.8%. And then, that does not include the rare occurences of bonus roll over a bonus roll (like reported here: 2 Hero’s of the Month in 1 pull). Which is why I believe it can be even higher.
Ofc if your luck sucks you can roll 5,000,000 times and not get any legendary, but that doesn’t mean the odds are any lower. It’s 3.8%.
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I’ve considered it, and decided to pass. I only have enough gems for 5 pulls…
and I already have many of the available 3* and 4*. I’m not even considering the 5* as the odds are low.
I already have:
3*: 33/45
4*: 25/57
5*: 17/172
the chances of me getting a new 4* are fairly decent, but I looked at the ones I didn’t have. The only ones I really want are Sergei and Almur.
Mist, Gullinbursti and Griffin would be nice to bolster my Yellow 4* bench.
Wilbur, Buddy, Merlin, Gretel, Falcon, Peters are nice to have too (but I have heroes who can fill similar roles in Gormek/Santa, Marcel, Proteus, C-Chao/Hansel, C-Marjana - granted C-Marjana is banned from 4 tiers, Tettukh).
So that’s 5 I would love to get + 6 I would be happy to get…
Among the 5 I love to get,
3 are Valhalla
1 Tower of Magic, and much better odds overall to get there, as there are only three 4* there
1 Underwild, and I can still get quite a few coin pulls from completion
so overall, pass, I’ll save my gems up for a 10-pull in Magic Tower or Valhalla…
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For a single pull the probability to get at least one legendary is 3.7675%. Your “math” probably goes wrong because single pull may get 1 or 2 (or even more) heroes.
Calculation: The chance to get no legendary heroes with single pull is 0.975x0.987. The chance to get at least one legendary hero is thus 1 - (0.975x0.987) = 0.037675.
My opinions:
- Summon Odds are what they are but I was expecting at least 10 pull = 2600 gems or even less because the spirit of Black Friday is a retail discount so getting rid of what you have in stock with lower prices. I would advise SG to read a piece of history.
- Offer is weird: the one on the left will get you more gems with paying less.
- Only worth pulling if your roster is really poor with the lack of 3 and 4 stars so you collect less dupes.
Best Wishes for whoever pulls in this portal! 
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Got all 3* from my 10x pull i already had them. I’d say it’s good only if you haven’t gotten any of the heroes from any of the events so it isn’t a waste of gems
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I was expecting 3000 as there is bonus chest which can bring you really great goods. I agree offers are not great but maybe on Friday we can get better. Let’s see. Still, at the moment for me, it’s no doubt the best portal. From 21 pulls together I got 5 new heroes (Guardian Kong, Orla, Cpt. Diamond, Valerie, Bertulf) which after almost 2,5 years of playing is a pretty decent result.
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In a 10 pull, I got Noril, Maeve, Bertulf and Drake Fong. I didn’t have them, so they are welcome.
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I try to explain the 2 different numbers we see here in the chat. BTW nice work @BoolzSan_CrewKNIGHTS, I’m now sure a lot of people know the right chances after your very informative posts 
For all those with problems visualizing that maybe this helps.
We have 2 independent pulls, one the normal heroes and the other hotm bonus roll.
We can think about 2 different dices and the 6 would be a 5* hero the other numbers 3*/4*
If we count the 6, we get 12 in 36 dice rolls (important, not dices, but rolls) . That’s 2/6.
Each dice has a chance of 1/6.
So we can + those chances. 1/6+1/6=2/6
In the long run we will get the 6 as often as 2/6 of the total number we trow the 2 dices.
Or with the game if you pull a lot at average 3,8% of the number of your pulls (not heroes) will be 5*. Say 10.000 pulls you will at average get 380 5* heroes but not in 380 different pulls.
If we now count only the rolls with 6 we get only 11 (because of the double 6)
So the chance is 11/36 so smaller than before.
That would be the equivalent of the chance for getting a 5* in a single pull or the number of pulls with at least one 5*.
I will borrow this:
So the chance for getting a pull with at least one 5* hero is 3,7675%
Say 10.000 pulls you will at average get 377 pulls containing at least one 5* heroes
Another example would be coin flips.
Take two coins and flip them simultaneously.
Each coin has a 50% chance to show the number.
If we add those we would get 100% number each flip. Take 2 coins and try it, you will get a result were both coins don’t show the number pretty quick.
But if you do it long enough you can add those percentages.
If you flip the coins 10.000 times you will see at average 10.000 times the number and 10.000 times the picture.
So in the long run we get the same amount of numbers as double coin flips.
Same here, the chance to get at least one 5* hero in one pull is 3,7675%, but in the long run we will have 3,8% of the number of pulls done 5* heroes.
In 10.000 pulls you will get at average:
380 5 star heroes (3,8%)
377 pulls including one or more 5 star heroes (3,7675%)
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