Betting pool: When will I get an event 5*?

Last year, around June, I decided to start saving up all of my EHTs for the Winter Event, in the hopes of getting a Mother North. I didn’t get MN, but I decided to start counting how many special event summons it would take me to get an event 5*. I started keeping count with that event, and I’ve included seasonal events, challenge events, Atlantis, Valhalla, Costume Chamber, and Tavern of Legends in my count. I’m looking to see how far I go before I get either a 5* hero from that event or a HotM.

Since I began counting (which doesn’t even reflect that there were months of summons before that without any of these 5s), I’m up to 155 event summons, during which time I’ve received no event 5s or HotM, and only one S1 5*, a janky Obakan. I’ve decided to open up a betting pool: how many event summons will I need to do before I get one?

Place your bets in the comments below. I’m going to use Price is Right style - you cannot repeat a number that someone else has already chosen, and the winner will be whoever comes closest without going over. Bear in mind that I’m already at 155, so any bet lower than 156 will not be likely to win.

The prize will be bragging rights over guessing how long my misery will be prolonged. Or maybe SG will be amused, and will chip in an actual prize for the winner. Who knows?

Here is one of Event Challange Summon try to chase one of 5* hero:
[WARNING] A Summons Experience - Chasing Guardian Panther - A Warning for Chasing Heroes

In those thread cover everything in math analyst, etc…

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That is a good analysis for chasing a specific hero. I’m looking at a more general case of chasing any event 5* hero or HotM. I calculated my odds, based on a 1.3% chance of an event 5* (which is accurate for most of the events, I think one or two are slightly higher or lower), and a 1.3% chance of a HotM draw with any event draw. That gives me a 97.4169% chance of getting neither on any particular draw. Over 155 draws, that puts me at approximately 1.731% chance of not having gotten either. Pretty unlucky, but not absurdly outside the realm of possibility.

I’ll also note that using these same percentages as my basis, it takes 27 draws to have a greater than 50% chance of having gotten one of these heroes.

Not much to say other than “it’ll happen sooner or later”… Your mathematical analysis looks correct. I got Finley on a free pull the first time he was offered, but no other 5* challenge/seasonal event heroes. Doing better on random HotM, though: Margaret, 4*Telluria, Kingston, Raffaele, Bai Yeong.

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I’ll go with pull #175.

Holy guac. How many 5* do you have total now? Is Obakan the only 5* you have? That’d be really sad. Got any elemental summons or lucky pulls from a training camp at least?

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I have quite a few 5* s. My TC20s have been moderately generous, and between that and earlier epic pulls, I have most of the S1 5* s. And in the first year and a half of play, before I started counting this cold streak, I did get two HotM (Zimkitha and Ranvir) and one event 5*, a lousy Misandra. But Misandra was my last event 5* in August 2019, and Ranvir was my last HotM in June 2019, so I’m now at over a year without a single event 5* or HotM. I only started counting my pulls in December, but I’d already been a few months dry before then.

Unfortunately, it’s getting harder to compete with just S1 heroes and a couple of specials. Raids I can still manage by cycling through teams until I find some without Telly, Vela, and JF, but wars are pretty tough. Mostly, though, it’s just frustrating feeling like I can’t do anything much to improve my team any more unless the RNG finally stops hating on me. I know I’m not the only one frustrated by this, but I figured I’d at least turn it into a game.

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I’ll vote for pull #169

I hope you can get it sooner tho

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My guess is pull #202, but I’m hoping I’m over by a lot🤞

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196

Seeing how you mentioned The Price is Right here’s some randomness big wheel style.

I had a dream last night that I did a Season 3 10-pull, and got three 5* S3 heroes and the HotM. I’m not sure what it says about me that I’m having dreams about this game now…

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I’d guess it is your most wanted dream to happen in the game.

My guess is pull #188.

Btw, I can relate. I got my only HOTM Seshat on my ninth and final EHT pull during Sand Empires last year. Sadly the rest of my 5* are all S1.

I also used 16 EHT on Springvale this year to get 2 Squire Rabbits and 2 Chicks. That was rough. At least they are both useful for challenge events and tournaments.

Anyway, I hope you get it soon!

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Monthly Event Legendary Heroes? I have most of the good heroes in Teltoc but is dry on the others except Snow White.

Seasonal Event Legendary Heroes? Only Master Lepus and Rana.

Season 1 Legendary Heroes. I am only missing Quintus, Elena and Isarnia. Hoping HA10 and TC20 will remedy that… soon.

Season 2 Legendary Heroes? I only wanted Ursena and Tarlak.

Season 3 Legendary Heroes? Zilch. Nada.

@Zorblak My guess is you’ll probably get that desired event hero a minute after you quit the game, maybe pull # 3,650th. Good luck though. Power of the reverse psychology.

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And then, finally, on pull #168, a costume chamber pull, I got the HotM bonus draw. My long drought of over a year has finally ended.

Since nobody guessed lower than 168, bragging rights go to @udee, who was only off by one from the final tally.

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Congrats on Glenda, @Zorblak!

Hopefully the next HOTM will appear much sooner for you. :four_leaf_clover:

Woohooo… its bragging time :star_struck:

Anyway congrats for the catch. hopefully the next one will come in the very near future :smile:

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