Avalon Draws - WTF happened

Hey,

well first i am not complaining about the money i spent, even not really about my bad luck, its much more a post about my worry regarding upcoming events and Atlantis and every other summons…

So, lets start with this, i spent a lot of money in this game, i heared the word “high casher” from another guy…

So well in numbers, i spent round about 4-500€ per month, its ok for me its kinda a hobby so why not…

I know the chances of drawing heroes are low so i never complained about. I had months with 150 Atlantis Draws with 3-4 Heroes but also ones with 8-12 ones (multiple HOTM included)

Well now this month started, i was excited about avalon, so i was sure i will draw a lot due to there a 3 Heroes i really would like to have (Black, King and Lady).

So as usual i jump in with the feeling i will get 1 or two of those i want (would be ok)

Now the result really shocks me i have to admit.

I did 180 Draws in Avalon and a few more with coins and diamond rests… and i recieved exactly 0 5* Hero…

Well for now its ok i will not fall off due to that, but what really makes me a bit scary is, if its really kind of a year of luck before that ends now, on a long way of time i will have a problem with events like this…
I am a bit scared that i used up my luck and it feels like it will not come back …

So just to let you know that in my opinion doing this amount of draws with absolutely no 5* Hero coming out is not as common as the guy complaining about their 10 Draws without HOTM or somthing like this …

13 Likes

no such thing like using up luck :slight_smile: it’s all random, if we like it or not. I would give it a rest. Speaking of myself, I rage-pulled once or twice. The outcome was ugly. These heroes do not run away and come back in known cycles. You’ll get your chance next time.

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Our alliance as a whole had no success at all this event, nobody got any event heroes at all hardly compared to usual. I pulled 3 5*, obakan, domitia and vivica, absolutely no use to me at all. I find it more annoying that pointless season 1 heroes are included in an event portal. It should only be event 5* available.

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I can’t even get the darn 3* troll after 30 pulls!! Nothing but crap duplicates of mostly 3* level.

1 Like

I pulled way more this time than i normally would.
I did 160 pulls.
I got 3 hotm, 2 season 1 5* (Marjana and Justice), and 2 event 5* (Morgan and LotL)
I agree that season 1 heroes should be out of the portal.
I also agree that we should get something like hero shards from each pulls, and with x shards you finally get a hero, even if you didn’t pull him.
That’s a system I’ve seen in other games, and I think it’s fair.

21 Likes

:blush: I remember, a while ago, back when I still cared about summons, I posted a thread about my going 600+ pulls without a 5* hero. The answer I got then, I’ll relay back to you now… “That’s perfectly normal” (personally I don’t buy that :slight_smile:). Of course, being f2p, my 600 pulls were spread over an extended period of time, making the frustration easier to digest. Anyway, chasing a specific hero might expose you to this kind of situation, so better be sure those money aren’t needed elsewhere.

3 Likes

Let’s do some math:
The chance for getting a 5* in Avalon is 3,8% (1,5+1+1,3) or 0,038
So the chance for getting no 5* is 0,962
So the chance for getting no 5* in a row of 180 draws is 0,962 ^180 = 0,0094 =~ 1%
So there is a small chance for you bad luck :-/

1 Like

I think this isn’t even necessary, it would be enough like in many other games to give it a negative fail chance: As example: You start with a 1% chance, so now every time you didnt get anything you chance is increased by 1%, the moment you get something it falls back to 1% or whatever. This would be nice and everybody can profit from it.

You solution is not bad but it will lead to a heavy p2w due to the high cashers will have every hero after 2 months…

1 Like

Feel very sorry for you. I am in the same shoes. 180 draws up to now and 2 HOTM and No, none Avalon 5*'s. It keeps me thinking what fortunes I waste/ burn for these devs, if I could use this money for other things. Ofcourse got like 15 Merlins and other troops I cannot feed to favorite 5* 's. Even considering quitting althoigh I am a big spender (40 pulls in Atlantis without 5* prev. Weeks - was sure my luck would turn).

8 Likes

Well due to its not a thread about being frustrated but more than about shocked you calculation is not real…

The problem is the so called “gamblers fallacy”: For each draw you have at new a 1% chance. So even after 1000000 pulls you have a 1% chance to get a 5* with each pull…

5 Likes

Well but as i said i dont want to complain, i know this could happen, but i really was sure it wont due to with so many pulls after a while something should come up.

Well as i said since i play i always make 100 Atlantis pulls per month and some more due to the event or whatever is coming up.

But i always got more or less 5* but never nothing…
I am just scared it will head on that way, never had to think about that before burning 500€ for nothing.

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f2p making 600+ pulls? I am VERY skeptical. Much more skeptical than going 600 pulls without a 5 star hero.

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@Nebuchad You are not alone with that sentiment. As a C2P, I just do only a few pulls. This Avalon, I attempted over 40 pulls, but only managed to get a single HOTM, a few dupe 3 and 4 star Avalon and classic heroes. Not a single Avalon 5 star. It may already confirmed my long ago theory that I would not get any Avalon heroes at all.

Yeah, I’ve seen this in other games and it would be really good to implement something like this in E&P.

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The cost of heroes is way too much. Summoning is rolling the dice. You are way more likely to crap out thsn get anything useful. The game has been too expensive a hobby for me.

I’m done spending money in the game. I’ll buy new gaming systems instead with money I’d have spent chasing the latest heroes.

But you can still calculate the probability of this. That’s NOT Gambler’s fallacy. It’s just: how are the probabilites of rolling a dice 100 times and NOT getting a 6. They are low, indeed, but it happens.

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I also agree with the original post on this point : event heroes seem somehow harder to get than Atlantis/Costumes/Seasonal…

I pulled in each event portal since they introduced the new heros, and only this time I got a couple of them. I got none from the previous events…
Whereas I almost systematically got something out of my Atlantis pulls

that’s becasue… they actually are. Look at the %s, they’re readily available to you.

2 Likes

Not receiving any Classic or Avalon 5* in 180 Summons is a 1.05% cumulative probability.

That means if 1 million players each did 180 Summons, 10,500 of them would receive no Classic or Avalon 5*.

WTF happened is that Summon odds are terrible, and you got bitten by them.

Sorry for the crappy luck. :confused:


For anyone interested, I’ve posted information on Avalon Summon Appearance Rates here: 👑 [Feb 2020] Knights of Avalon Challenge Event – Guides, Discussion & Summoning Results

9 Likes

In Guardians the chance for a 5* was 1,3%, in Avalon 1%, this is right?

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