Atlantis Summon: $300, 90 pulls, zero 5* heroes

I haven’t pulled or spent money since starting this thread… and I’m way happier.

I did finish season 2 hard before Atlantis Rises and used all my accumulated Atlantis coins. Alas, no 5* heroes (as expected). I didn’t even get any Atlantis 4*. I got the 3* frog hero and the rest were a mix of classic 3* and 4*.

Point was that I’m way happier. Until SG revisits how pulling works, money stays in my pocket.

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You’re right… it’s way better.

Let’s look at this this way… If you flip a coin one time, what’s the chance that you get heads… Well, there’s two possible outcomes… Heads (H) or Tails (T). So you have 50% chance.

Now let’s say you flip the coin twice, what’s the chance you get heads at least once? Well, there’s four possible outcomes. HH, HT, TH, TT. So there’s only one outcome where you don’t get heads. And there’s four total outcomes… So you have a 25% chance of not getting heads, and a 75% chance of getting at least one head.

Now let’s start working towards a formula. Let’s say you flip the same coin nine times. You have 2^9 possible outcomes. 2 outcomes per flip and 9 flips. That’s 512 possible outcomes. There’s only 1 outcome that doesn’t include a single head. The case where you get tails all 9 flips. The chance of that happening is 1/512 which is 0.195% chance. So the chance you get at least one heads is 1 - 0.195%. Approximately, 99.8%.

A general formula for this is:

Probability that you get heads at least once in N flips is: 1 - 1 / 2^n

So the moral of the story is the more you flip the coin, the greater your chance of getting heads at least once.

The same concept applies to this game (with different odds). But, the claim that the more you pull the greater your chances of getting the hero you want still holds. It’s never guaranteed you’ll get what you want, but the chances do increase with each pull.

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Okay. The next person you are attracted to, you stalk them.

The more times you ask them out, the more likely it becomes they will eventually say yes, right?

Because the past causes the future to unfold based on the past. That’s how the universe works, right?

You didn’t get your 5* after 100 tries, so you should try a 101st time, right? You are almost for sure going to get it. Never mind the 1.3% odds…

@Garanwyn

I’m sure u like this stuff lol

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If…I…just…keep…summoning…and…summoning…I will get what I seek…

The math says it is almost certainly so…

Meanwhile, SG laughs all the way to the bank.

Gambler’s anonymous? Forget Vegas casino gamblers and sports-book and lottery players, we’ve got to make more room for the Massive-Multiplayer-Online-Gaming community.

They’re even convincing each other now, that they should just keep on keeping on, no matter how long they go without seeing their luck come in. The bad guys aren’t even the business operators, the bad guys are each other!!

The probability only goes to 1 at an infinite number of summonings. It becomes progressively more likely that you’ll get what you want, but you never reach a point of guarantee.

It’s also a really bad financial decision to even try, unless dropping thousands of dollars really means nothing to someone.

Who, exactly, is giving this advice? As a community, we’re pretty good about encouraging people to be healthy about this. For example:

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The odds for the 101st try are the same as the first. No one is saying differently. If that’s what you think we are saying, you aren’t comprehending what you’re reading. What we are saying is that if you do 100 draws, your odds of getting a 5 star are WAY WAY higher than if you did one draw. The more draws you’re doing, the more likely you are to get a 5 star somewhere in that draw.

If you think your odds of getting a 5 star with one draw is 1.3%, and your odds of getting a 5 star in 100 draws is also 1.3% then you need a name change.

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I wish the devs cared enough about player frustration to do something but it appears they don’t. There are a million suggestions and ideas on this forum and the devs could easily think of their own but nothing has been implemented and that speaks louder than a million Vent threads…

The p2w argument I often see is dumb, the game is already p2w. For most big spenders, the odds are extremely high that they will get what they want in the time they expect. Putting a fix in place to support the extreme unlucky end of the spectrum hurts nobody and doesn’t hurt the game in the slightest.

Really ? I completely disagree with that. So that means that people who have more coin to spend on the game are at a further advantage of % odds per spin to get something better than people playing on a Budget ?

I dont think players on a Budget would be impressed if that was the case.

I’m a player on a budget. Sorry but you’re wrong, most players with coin to spend are already at an advantage and will get all the 5 stars they expect for the odds. It is only those who unluckily get far less than the odds that don’t and that is the minority. I’m all for those that spend money feeling like they get something for it at roughly what the odds work out to for 90% of players.

Remember that any change like this benefits c2p and f2p as well. We are all still saving for gems to summon. Paying just let’s you do it quicker.

Ok so I am confused. Yes, I agree that most players with coin to spend are at an advantage because they will do more spins bringing up their odds of pulling a 5*. The way it is now works fine because no matter what the players budget is, a f2p or low spender has the same chance of a 5* on each individual spin as someone who may through $300 in a single day at the game. My point is why should someone with a bigger budget have some sort of advantage of a higher % on each spin? That would just make SG look completely greedy.

Hypothetical scenario that would never happen - SG increase the odds to pull a 5* to 10% if players are doing a 30 spin or more. A player does a 30 spin based on these odds and still does not pull a 5* - Do you think they would still complain ?

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I don’t know why most people suggest increasing the odds. That wouldn’t make a difference. I mean it would be the same. Even with a 99% chance if 100.000 people do a pull there would be a 1000 people here complaining. What you want is a change from the chance system but this game is all about chance, luck and patience. The boards, special skills leveling up, troop pulls everything is luck. and like the eastern novels say luck is a kind of strength. and this comes from a guy who spent close to 100 bucks since starting 6 months ago and got his only 5* from a tc (sartana) even if the game gave you 20 5* right now what are you gonna do? its gonna take 2 years to level them all and get items. so i recommend being patient. all those people you see with a full 5* roster have been playing more than a year or spent thousands of dollars.

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For example in some games there is a pity timer. Like in Hearthstone. After 9 pulls without epic u get epic in tenth booster and the same is with legendaries but after 20 boosters.
Sadly there is no such thing in this game. I mean give people at least one 5* in 50 draws for example, won`t cost you a world…

P.s. stop raping the math. If you need for example heads and flip coin fifty times and get fifty tails than it is not some unluck but something is definitely wrong with the coin.

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I actually agree, Im not suggesting any increase to odds on spin. Just a buffer, eg you last summoned 100 hero’s which once you expand the odds of 100 spins x1. 3% should have something like an 80% chance of a single 5 star I’m guessing, if you didn’t get one then either your odds start to increase or you get some sort of bonus buffer. Its a buffer for poor luck that beats the odds, most people will never see it…

That’s probably what new buildings are for.

It is said by the Small Giant staff on the AMA that there is gonna be a way to use duple heroes (5 or 6 of them) for having a new hero.

It is not clear what kind of hero you can get (probably at best old HotM, no Atlantis or event heroes involved) and it is not clear if it is a guaranteed outcome or works with chance.
It is not tested yet, hopefully we will see that soon.

But this way if you do many pulls (and probably end with many duples) there’s a more efficient way to use them.

So in a sense, that’s what you (and many others) are wishing for.

Completely agree, I think increasing odds would ruin the game in a way. The reason the guins, GMs and Kages to name a few are so good is because they are in fact hard to obtain. If far more people had these heroes they would actually lose their value taking stratergy out of the game where as now people are somewhat forced to make the best with what they have. It makes beating a team with higher tier players then your own all the more satisfying

How would giving someone a 5* after, for example, 50 pulls ruining the game?

Apropos, above 2500 there are tons of guins etc.

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The game actually created varieties of heroes, but certain group of players formed opinions on some heroes as “must have”, that is where the shift is.

The moment anyone realizes the need to be content with what they have per time, then the quest to crave for "must have heroes " would either reduce or becomes easier to handle.

On the other way round, this game tends to favor length of time, so imo, it would be better to be content with whatever you have now and steadily over time build to get what you need, not what you want.

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