Atlantis Summon: $300, 90 pulls, zero 5* heroes

It baffles me how some people are too dense to get that.

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You’re actually wrong in your logic. The odds do get better.

Say for example, you have a penny and you flip the coin once. You have a 50% chance of getting heads. And each time you flip the coin you have the same 50% chance. But if you flip the coin enough times, statistically you will gets heads.

It’s the same concept in Las Vegas. If you play enough, eventually you’re going to lose. You may get a small run of luck, but over the long run, you will lose. If that wasn’t true, Vegas wouldn’t exist.

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Nope. Still just 50% with each flip…

There’s a reason why people go to Vegas to lose money, rather than to get rich.

Yes, each flip is 50%, but the odds of getting heads at least once in 10 flips is not 50%

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The odds don’t change with each individual trial, but with a set of trials, the odds of seeing the outcome you want do statistically increase. If someone doesn’t understand that, they shouldn’t be talking about odds to other people.

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Indeed.

…and yet, this also means that it is entirely logically possible that thousands of people (since millions play) may very well be:

a) incredibly lucky and get TONS of 5* heroes in very few pulls.
b) incredibly unlucky and NEVER see even ONE 5* hero, despite hundreds of pulls.

It’s kinda the nature of the beast. Especially when we’re talking about a starting point of having just a 2.5% chance to begin with.

There’s an odds thread around here somewhere. People might find it enlightening. I want to say that in the scenario described above (90 pulls), there’s only like, an 85% chance to have pulled a single 5* hero or something like that. This means that 10%+ of people that do 90 pulls get nothing above 4*.

It really is such a desperately low chance, and since each subsequent pull is completely independent… well… yeah. It’s better to look at the base odds than think “100 pulls, I’m sure to get Hero X!” …the odds are just THAT stacked against us.

Several people have done a bit more research than I into the summoning mechanics of E&P and written some great threads with more information about them:

  1. What exactly is ‘GACHA’?
  2. Guaranteed HotM, old HotM or 5* Atlantis hero after 50 pulls

An interesting quote from that second thread (which acknowledges that the overall chances of getting one lone 5 star hero does increase @LucasDaoc (I am no fool, my friend - stay on topic, no need to tell me I ‘shouldn’t be talking’)… but also points out just how low the odds truly are:

Special note: if you read that Guaranteed thread, you’ll see that I too dislike the current system and within that thread proposed a Pity Timer, similar to that utilized in Hearthstone. I absolutely despise just how stingy the current system is. It is so stingy, in fact, that generally speaking, people need to recognize just how deeply so. The prevalence of threads such as these is evidence of precisely this fact, unfortunately.

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Unfortunately there really isn’t anything we can do about it to force change. The only thing we have control over is our own spending.

It reminds me of people trying to organize boycotts of EA games because they put out terrible game after terrible game milking the fan base. Yet when that new game comes out, half the people planning to boycott pre-order it and buy it anyway.

Just in this thread there is a poster above who mentions how frustrated he is with the odds and then every month plays the lottery anyway. Why on earth would SG change anything? Don’t get me wrong, bad luck protection would be amazing, but it doesn’t make SG money.

The other problem is, even if we could organize a good boycott of spending among us, the top 1% of spenders brings in 90% of the income. It doesn’t really matter if I stop spending my $5-$10 a month (Vip and a cheap offer here and there) if the big fish are still dumping $5,000 a month into the game and there will always be those big spenders trying to be #1 or super competitive whatever.

The weird thing is, unless you’re trying to be #1 in pvp or the best war attacker / titan hitter ever, spending doesn’t really do that much for you. In fact, I believe spending only really accelerates how quickly you’ll burn out on the game as you’ll have less and less to look forward too. In that sense it’s kind of nice that I didn’t pull Grave Maker, if I did every other red hero would be damn near obsolete! (Yeah positive spin LMAO!)

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If everybody had every hero, none of them would be unique or awesome, they would be nothing more than boring and average.

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I mean… you’re not wrong, but that has little to do with the problem. Are you in support of only the super lucky and biggest spenders having access to premium hero’s? In other words you think it’s a necessary evil that most people get screwed at the portal so we don’t all have top tier hero’s?

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Stastically you should get at least 1 5* but I’m really not suprised that you didn’t get any.

There’s so much ■■■■■■■■ when it comes to this games “statisttics” like how it’s so much more likely to get a duplicate hero over getting 1 you don’t have.

Technically they’re not lying that you have an X chance to get an X * hero. You do but the chance to get a duplicate is higher…

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I have been playing for 300 days. I never do more then 2 10 pulls in a month and maybe some spare gem pulls/token/atlantis coins after for the “1 last hope at glory pull”. That said, I have the following number of 5*s:

8 HOTM: (Khiona, Zeline, Evelyn x3, Anzogh, Aegir, Frida)
2 Atlantis Heros: (Poseidon, Mitsuko)
3 Event Heros: (Santa, M. Lepus, Hatter)
16 TC20 Heros: Joon, Sartana x2, Domitia, Azlar x2, Khagan, Elkanen x2, Kadilen, Isarnia, Richard, Marj x2, Magni x2)

Moral of the story is that you can play for cheap and still compete. (I mostly buy all the deals 5$ and under, and cheap event/atlantis coin deals, so most months I spend less than 50$).

That is almost 30 5* heros. They come, be patient. I also pulled 2 from TC20 in less than 10 attempts. Most of the heros I wanted I didn’t get. I pull for certain heros when I see them appear, but after my 2-3 10 pull max, I stop. During thoses pulls I got heros I didnt “want” but ended up loving them. Do not pull more than you can afford and enjoy what you do get… even if not the specific one you wanted.

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There isn’t any guaranteed access at all. There are lucky players without spending much and there are mass-summoners complaining about getting nothing worth their money.

Play with what you have or pull the hel(l) out of it, but never fret about your own stupidity. You decide…

To pull or not to pull, that is the question. Nobody needs every hero and there isn’t any hero, that makes you win.

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I haven’t pulled or spent money since starting this thread… and I’m way happier.

I did finish season 2 hard before Atlantis Rises and used all my accumulated Atlantis coins. Alas, no 5* heroes (as expected). I didn’t even get any Atlantis 4*. I got the 3* frog hero and the rest were a mix of classic 3* and 4*.

Point was that I’m way happier. Until SG revisits how pulling works, money stays in my pocket.

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You’re right… it’s way better.

Let’s look at this this way… If you flip a coin one time, what’s the chance that you get heads… Well, there’s two possible outcomes… Heads (H) or Tails (T). So you have 50% chance.

Now let’s say you flip the coin twice, what’s the chance you get heads at least once? Well, there’s four possible outcomes. HH, HT, TH, TT. So there’s only one outcome where you don’t get heads. And there’s four total outcomes… So you have a 25% chance of not getting heads, and a 75% chance of getting at least one head.

Now let’s start working towards a formula. Let’s say you flip the same coin nine times. You have 2^9 possible outcomes. 2 outcomes per flip and 9 flips. That’s 512 possible outcomes. There’s only 1 outcome that doesn’t include a single head. The case where you get tails all 9 flips. The chance of that happening is 1/512 which is 0.195% chance. So the chance you get at least one heads is 1 - 0.195%. Approximately, 99.8%.

A general formula for this is:

Probability that you get heads at least once in N flips is: 1 - 1 / 2^n

So the moral of the story is the more you flip the coin, the greater your chance of getting heads at least once.

The same concept applies to this game (with different odds). But, the claim that the more you pull the greater your chances of getting the hero you want still holds. It’s never guaranteed you’ll get what you want, but the chances do increase with each pull.

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Okay. The next person you are attracted to, you stalk them.

The more times you ask them out, the more likely it becomes they will eventually say yes, right?

Because the past causes the future to unfold based on the past. That’s how the universe works, right?

You didn’t get your 5* after 100 tries, so you should try a 101st time, right? You are almost for sure going to get it. Never mind the 1.3% odds…

@Garanwyn

I’m sure u like this stuff lol

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If…I…just…keep…summoning…and…summoning…I will get what I seek…

The math says it is almost certainly so…

Meanwhile, SG laughs all the way to the bank.

Gambler’s anonymous? Forget Vegas casino gamblers and sports-book and lottery players, we’ve got to make more room for the Massive-Multiplayer-Online-Gaming community.

They’re even convincing each other now, that they should just keep on keeping on, no matter how long they go without seeing their luck come in. The bad guys aren’t even the business operators, the bad guys are each other!!

The probability only goes to 1 at an infinite number of summonings. It becomes progressively more likely that you’ll get what you want, but you never reach a point of guarantee.

It’s also a really bad financial decision to even try, unless dropping thousands of dollars really means nothing to someone.

Who, exactly, is giving this advice? As a community, we’re pretty good about encouraging people to be healthy about this. For example:

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The odds for the 101st try are the same as the first. No one is saying differently. If that’s what you think we are saying, you aren’t comprehending what you’re reading. What we are saying is that if you do 100 draws, your odds of getting a 5 star are WAY WAY higher than if you did one draw. The more draws you’re doing, the more likely you are to get a 5 star somewhere in that draw.

If you think your odds of getting a 5 star with one draw is 1.3%, and your odds of getting a 5 star in 100 draws is also 1.3% then you need a name change.

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I wish the devs cared enough about player frustration to do something but it appears they don’t. There are a million suggestions and ideas on this forum and the devs could easily think of their own but nothing has been implemented and that speaks louder than a million Vent threads…

The p2w argument I often see is dumb, the game is already p2w. For most big spenders, the odds are extremely high that they will get what they want in the time they expect. Putting a fix in place to support the extreme unlucky end of the spectrum hurts nobody and doesn’t hurt the game in the slightest.