Ascension mats drop rate (is it less than before?)

Well been playing now for over 8 month’s… I see some players that have been playing alot longer say ascension mats drop less now then they used to,. since moving to a larger alliance with 10* titans I seem to be getting 3* and 4* mats from them fairly frequently…so I’m trying to find from other’s if this “mats dropping less” is actually true or people possibly going through dry spells?

There are periods when 4* am drop rate is higher and also when lower.
Currently I have dry period and it is very hard to motivate myself to grind. Usually I start to think about quitting a game :slight_smile: One day it will happen but not today :slight_smile:

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Month Year 3 Star 4 Star
September 2019 35 7
October 2019 31 15
November 2019 40 10
December 2019 40 11
January 2020 35 9
February 2020 45 10
March 2020 40 7
April 2020 38 7
May 2020 45 9
June 2020 41 9

Slapped it together pretty quickly so there’s a chance I made a mistake or two, but I really doubt in any way that would alter my conclusion: I see nothing here suggesting any sort of change.

Poisson distributions are not intuitive and can easily look like rates have increased or decreased.

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My 4* numbers are similar if i include the farmable ones (rare quests, season rewards)

11-7-10-10-11-8-9-12-8-15

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Does seem to be a dropoff since V28 came out… what I noticed in my own collection…for 4* mats anyway…3* mats seem to still be dropping fairly regular but 4* mats are more elusive

8 months ago I calculate my 4* AM drop rate that I got for the last 10 month, the result is: 92, which means during that period, the rate is 92/10 = 9.2/month.

Since then, I have collected 85 more, so during the last 8 months, it is: 85/8 = 10.625/month

It is increasing for me.

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My confirmation bias tells me that ascension mats from the chests and titans have significantly reduced its drop rate. Back then, I always get them plenty from raid chests at diamond tier, elemental chests, war chests, titan chests and from titan kills, especially the rare ones. Now, I barely get them in every 2 months. This is sad since getting them rare and epic ascension mats urged me (and maybe some players) to skip chest wait time using gems in order for me to fill it up again and get unfarmable ascension mats once more. Not anymore. Small Giants may have balanced this drop rates from sureball sources: POV, 10th pull from Atlantis and Valhalla portals, special events especially with the addition of Wonderland.

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Yeah and even then the last few elemental chests I’ve gotten have had 1 non farmable 3* mat then like Boots scabbards etc no 4* mat

That is the majority of the chest. In fact you can get 2 of them.

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Yup had one not long ago with 2 scabbards…was a let down big-time… should only be non farmable mats in rare chests

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I see that you’ve ignored multiple posts presenting data contra to your claim then immediately responded to someone who (maybe, a little bit) agreed with you anecdotally.

So I doubt you’ll do this, but I’d challenge you to gather your own data. It could allay your frustration about what you perceive the true drop rate to be, as well as show you that you’re likely collecting more AM’s than you think.

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Well on the one hand I could anecdotally point out that my own AM drop rate has dropped dramatically from where it was a year ago…

But then on the other hand, I also have to fully confess that I was probably a lot more active a year ago.

I am fighting stronger titans than I was back then, but I’ve also severely cut back on PvP type activities that I did not enjoy… which means fewer chests overall…

Kinda have to weigh the options.

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I haven’t ignored any data just taking the information that’s on here and reflecting on it and I am tracking my own chests since about 2 week’s ago and mat drop rate. As I posted on a different thread when I get a decent Amount of element chests and mats I’ll be posting my data as well to hopefully add to it… I don’t see anywhere here that I’ve ignored anything… it’s just asking more experienced players their own take on the subject so appreciate the challenge and the doubt but yeah ahead of that one

My raid/monster chests are just fine, so are the titans and even nicer titan chests than usually. 2 from each source last month I think it was.

The only nerf that has happened is to elemental chests and that’s like 2 years ago now. Plus the mini nerf some months ago that lessened the amount of loot tickets (which was a mind bogglingly bad and weird decision).

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Good to know my last 2 titan chests had no mats above 2*… But as I mentioned in the initial post there are dry spells…this nerf that happened 2 years ago what did that change?

Actually may have been around December 2017. A problem is that not many collected data but the general consensus seemed to be that gold tokens had drastically lessened and seemed to be fewer 4* ascension materials and more farmable 3*.

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Not actually agreeing, merely pointing out that is normal.

I do not support the notion that it is less than before, what I’m trying to say is it was like that to begin with, no decrease.

Technically, each AM roll from elemental chest is:
10% 4* AM
90% 3* AM (7 unfarmables - 57.27% and 4 farmables 32.73%)

There are 2 rolls on each elemental chest. Which means, the possibility of getting at least 1 farmable is:

1-(1-32.73%)^2 = 54.74%

More than 50% = majority

The probability of getting 2 farmables is:

32.73%^2 = 10.71%

For more reference:

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Good to know thank you

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I usually get at least 1 unfarmable from elemental chests, but yes, I did have one recently where I got two farmable AMs and 3 silver tokens. :laughing: Chalked it up to just really bad RNG, but my inner conspiracy theorist also wondered if this was just the kind of thing I should expect more of going forward… :thinking:

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Dunno LoL but as I said they should make rare chests only non farmable mats even if the rate for 4* mats is around 10% as @IvyTheTerrible has shown in their own% rates

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