They’ve confirmed that offers are targeted based on player behavior — but have said that RNG elements of the game are not.
That’s not the only discussion I’ve had with Small Giant Staff about that, it’s just a convenient one to point to, since it was a public one.
And as I’ve said before elsewhere — if it’s ever determined that Summons have outcomes determined based on targeted player behavior, I will quit the game that day. I would never support a game where the developers were lying to players.
I play this game because I’m confident they’re not.
Just to clear things up here, you guys are talking about two completely different random variables. Viking, you are correct in starting that doing pulls can be represented as a binomial distribution; however, what Papca is discussing here, and what the bell curve above represents, is the average of many samples which is, in itself, a random variable that is closely approximated by a normal distribution.
(For those interested, this is an application of the central limit theorem)
lol at you claiming to be a statistician and treating probability as averages of limited samples.
you started a thread about getting something with a probability of 1.3% and you claim that 0.27% is damn small?
tell us, what is the probability of getting a bonus HOTM of a bonus HOTM from a single pull? and that happens quite a lot.
Hey I am working in video game industry and it is not something (especially a successful game) would do. Risks are too high and not worth, totally illegal.
There is however (in Japanese industry) 2 kind of legal gacha. The boxed gacha and the normal one.
Boxed gacha means that you offer a box of let say 1000 determined summons that you share among players until it’s empty. So let’s say that in that box you have 13 HOTM (1.3%), if after 500 pulls, there are no more HOTM, the next users have in fact 0% chance to get the HOTM in that box but it will be run until it’s empty.
However you are not “wrong” because the odds displayed in total are true. I find personally that way of doing totally wrong but it’s fifty/fifty practice inside the industry.
I don’t know what kind of gacha SG is doing tho. It could explain why your luck is ■■■■ if you pull at the same time. It’s why I prefer to space my pulls during an event to avoid that, in case.
Firstly, thanks to everyone for keeping civil, these threads often end up with a lot of bile and vexation.
But also, to anyone who reads this thread and thinks that ‘it’s another thread of poor summons, SG must be rigging the system’ remember that people who are on the other side of the curve rarely come on to suggest that the odds are too good to them!
Jonah’s point was what I was going to say.
You rarely (publicly) hear about people who are far above the odds.
for instance, we had a member In our alliance … since stopped playing …whose first FIVE pulls from TC20 were different 5*.
Haven’t calculated the odds but that is probably as unlikely as the OP’s situation
And SG did not answered this specific question at all.
Zephyr was asking very specifically. “Are odd changed according to your spending?”
And they answered about something absolutelly different: “1 summon has same odds as 10 summons”.
if odds would be based on spending amount - wouldn’t be the logical consequence in your theory to spend less? Doesn’t make sense to me from SG persepective.
Good question!
Acctually, no, it would not.
It is in fact good to revenues to give player who is starting with the game one top hero. He / she is motivated to start spending a bit more.
And there are some pieces of evidence that it is happening. Was mentioned in this thread.
And if SG sees that you are chasing hotm, it is good to give it latter than sooner. If they have record of your previous behaviour, that it is highly probable buying in such case a new deal.
there is just another thread where someone claims they are FTP, did 1500 summons and got 1 HOTM. this should prove to this guy that you can pay a lot or pay nothing - it doesnt matter. RNG, like justice, is blind!
I think he pretty clearly put your questions in same category as superstitions about pulling 1by1 giving you better odds. And his response “It just doesnt affect anything” applies to your question too.
Don’t we have “global offers” and “account tailored offers” in the game?. Where the second kind are targeted based on ppl’s behaviour?.
If there is a will there is a why, but nothing but tin foil hat theories can come out of stuff we dont have the paper data to analyse.
Edit: I went and necroe’d the thread I was looking for the info on different offers. I got confused and posted this answer on the other thread WOOOPSI hahah
you wanted a nice quick quote and they just rolled around you like you were a bullet and they’re Neo
That’s fun
I don’t think you should use that quote. It doesn’t make the point you want it to make. It makes those two SG folks look like slippery, lying eels. (Or something.)
They don’t answer your question. And given the direct nature of your question, that’s at best head scratching. I think you have enough feedback here to show that it can actually be counter productive in suggesting that SG may be lying or hiding something.
IN FACT, SOMEONE hand me some tin foil I’m joining the conspiracy!
I haven’t had any similar experiences… I don’t have any first hand knowledge of this happening. But check out this really weird exchange between a “moderator” (cough cough resistance infiltration robot cough) and two unsuspecting SG rubes:
First our robo— I mean the moderator, who has spent YEARS infiltrating SG, lobs a grenade into the SG bunker.
What you have to remember here is, these SG folks, they don’t see this coming. They’re blindsided right? They expect a nice easy layup about what new crud they’re gonna slam our their corn holes and whonot. So right off the marinade ole zephbot got them reeling.
Now watch while this steaming pile of lies that squeezes itself out of the mouth womb of these two SG corporate types:
Slow-mo replay:
Tim: “noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo… arggghhhhhhhh. Uhhhhhh I need to make something up…”
elevator music playsbeep please leave a message after the tone.
Tim returns; I have prepared the following statement on the issue at hand; as it turns out, the sky on mars is red because of radiation leaking off the ISS. We will at once launch retrieval drones to return the space station from whence it came.
Doesn’t make sense to me from SG persepective.
you wanted a nice quick quote and they just rolled around you like you were a bullet and they’re Neo 
