Hello guys, just like most of you I really like this game, and as I really like statistics, a few weeks ago I started a small experiment to try to get a sense of how “good” the rewards are in general for different chests. Someone probably already did something similar but I have been reading a lot this forum in the past months, without reading something like this.
So far, I have tracked results for 58 monster chests, 39 raid chests in platinum and 9 raid chests in diamond. Because of small sample size in the diamond chest I will not reveal results as they are meaningless.
I just tracking valuable stuff, like gems, emblems, tokens, trainers, tickets, atlantis coins, flasks (not ham/iron, crafting or attacking items)…
So far per monster chests:
- 2.51 gems
- 1.18 emblems
- 3.45% 3* non farmable A.M (0% 4*)
- 0.43 grey tokens (0 for the others)
- 8.62% 1* trainer // 3.45% 2* trainer
- 0.12 atlantis coins
So far per raid chest (platinum):
- 3.48 gems
- 0.82 emblems
- 7.69% 3* non farmable A.M // 2.56% 4*
- 0.9487 grey tokens // 2.56% troop // 2.56% hero
- 28.21% 1* trainer // 2.56% 2* trainer
- 0.28 atlantis coins
I have cracked the amount of chests open in between elemental chests, for a total of 17 elemental chests, resulting in 34.47 chests per elemental.
However, there is a discrepancy between the amount of elemental chests that pop up in the Hero slot comparing to the monster slot. I have needed to open in average 63.8 monster chests to get an elemental there, while just 21.72 hero chests to get one in that slot. It may seem like there is a different probability depending on the slot, and that would explain while people who speed up hero chests receive way more elemental chests.
I started tracking consistently what I receive from elemental chests just in the last four, so again small sample size.
I just wanted to get a sense of the “average value gained” by opening a chest, for which I try to compute the “Gem weighted” value. For that I just assign a value in gems for each category of items. So far I weight them this way:
- Non farmeable 3* A.M. = 50 gems
- 4* A.M. = 400 gems
- Grey tokens = 0.5 gems
- Troop tokens = 150 gems
- Hero tokens = 200 gems
- Loot tickets = 0.5 gems
- Emblems = 5 gems
- World flask = 15 gems
- Raid flask = 5 gems
- Titan flask = 10 gems
- Trainer 1* = 1 gems
- Trainer 2* = 2 gems
- Trainer 3* = 5 gems
- Atlantis coin = 3 gems
Basically, I punish very hard the things that do not add real value over what can be obtained for free. As an example I think gray tokens do not have value at all because they just give feeders and a really small chance at a good feeding troop. Otherwise just food. Trainers the same thing, they help to reduce costs at leveling heroes and help to do it quicker but it can be done anyway with time and the correct TC and ham (I still have over 4000 clothes to use in TC19 as an example). I devalue a little bit the troop and hero tokens because they do not have the same flexibility as having gems, and besides that hero tokens are only really valuable for seasonal events as otherwise they are just the same as TC20 (just the added bonus of HOTM chance, but still small).
The “controversial” part probably is the value of non-farmeable 3* A.M. I think they are just not as valuable because if you 9* titans consistently you should get them without much problems, and I have seen that older players have lots of them in stock. I think if you are still starting they have lots of value, but afterwards they start losing it. For ME 400 gems seem okay for 4* A.M. even though I realize I am biased as I only have three 5* heroes so I do not need them as much as other players. I should probably increase it right?
I think emblems at 5 gems is fine, but maybe should be more for experienced players, as It is currently the only way to customize your heroes and make them stronger. Once you have full team of 5* heroes, adding more does not have as much value as embleming your heroes, so I fact I think they are very very valuable.
With all of this in mind, the average value received from monster chests is 11.2 gems, and for platinum chests 32.4 gems (I got astonished when seeing it). By the way, I have done the same thing for mystic visions and their expected value is huge, a total of 18 gems!! (I have gotten 2 non farmeable 3* A.M. and two 4* AM in 96 visions, so that influences the result, but still 1.8 gems and 1 emblem per mystic vision).
I would like feedback, particularly regarding the “value” of the received items. Hope this is helpful for some other players!