Alliance Wars Matchmaking (Discussion & Developer Response) MASTER

No, the point is the current algorithm is comparing the actual results of integrating those draws up, namely actual heroes with their actual levels, and troops. You’re proposing to go to a proxy measure that demonstrably has a super high variance, when the current measure is actually measuring what you hope to approximate.

That’s just nonsensical. It’s like arguing to replace the odometer in your car with something that estimates distance traveled based on fuel usage. Why ever would you try to approximate it that way, when the value of interest is literally being measured?

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The team with consolidated power will be strong for 1 or 2 of the 6 rounds in the war. The other will be stronger overall for all 6. Sure team 1 will flip team 2 but what then? They’ve exhausted their top heroes. The other team can with teamwork also flip team 1, maybe even twice. I’d rather have the deeper bench, although currently I’m more the consolidated power type.

If you don’t put enough kitty in the pot before you try to divvy it up you will not get accurate results…

35 kids
Each take one key…
I put down 7 keys
It shows only 7 end up with a key…
but had I put in enough to cover the average the average can be realized…

Your equation was not well thought out. It could not be realized, even if one of us does.

And 7 of the kids buy their own keys, so now 14 have keys.

Again if I put 5 of an item mixed in 100 and you draw from that pool till it’s gone you will end up with 5.

I’m not sure how much more basic one can make this.

Listen, it’s really clear that you don’t understand how statistics and probability work. And it looks like you also don’t understand the ascension material draw process.

It’s not like there’s some fixed pool of ascension materials that everyone’s drawing out of. The system can create a functionally infinite number. Every time a draw happens, the system generates a random number, and compares it against a threshold. If the random number is over the threshold, it generates a brand new AM and gives it to the person who did the draw. It doesn’t matter who drew what previously, and it doesn’t affect who will draw what next.

I believe they have changed the ask a bit. If I understand it correctly they are now saying instead of the current rules, use the player level more as a filter on top of the current rules. I still don’t see that as helpful, but it wouldn’t create worse matches.

Why I think it is not helpful:

When I was level 44 I attacked a level 72 and won. I could have used either of my two top teams and had a good chance at a win. With the third team it would have been iffy. I know people in the mid to upper 30’s who have a much better bench than I do, so by the transitive properties of ■■■ kicking, those could have beaten the level 72 with at least three of their teams.

So the span for a filter would have to span 40 some levels on the mid-to-upper end players. Maybe it could be tightened on the lower end, or maybe like a rubber band you compare the lowest levels to the highest and if is stretched too much it breaks the match. Not sure if either of those would help.

Well let’s look at the, “what then” as that is also what I said is the problem…

It re-spawns the entire team negating the extended spawn timer that round…

As a result the weaker team now re-spawns all its weaker teams… offering the stronger team another chance to attack them with their bench…
But you said I had a better bench…

But my bench has no targets… You just gave their weak bench extra targets that I can’t get to…

Are you starting to see the problem yet…

Umm, no because they just used all their best heroes. Now they are attacking with much weaker heroes (otherwise they wouldn’t be consolidated) and they can maybe take out your weaker teams again but that’s it. You meanwhile with the stronger bench can do more damage to their stronger teams than they can to your stronger teams and you get more points in the second half of the war.

Maybe we should just agree to disagree and call it a day.

You’re on the right track…
proof to this can be seen in other ways in impact… Yet in the opposite direction…

Too many weak or low team… which is what I’m showing you but located on the bottom end…

Your very low level players will almost… again I say almost never cover their own loss total in points…

That happens on both ends on average… But you keep getting people pointing to the anomaly instead of actually looking at war results…
Almost every war will show the low end results, the more extreme the amount of players in that range, the greater the point gap gets…

So instead of accumulation of power it’s lack of power casing the extreme.

You do realize they are also attacking weaker hero’s… Not only after the flip, but as “you” said earlier prior to the flip…

So attacking more weak player that the other team can never attack, is not an advantage?

Maybe you read what I’m saying until it makes sense… Because it’s pretty basic stuff that nobody can disagree with, and you still did somehow. So it’s clear you missed something…
what I’m saying is not a debatable thing, that I can promise you.

Yes, yes I do. You can’t flip without attacking the weaker teams.

Essentially what you are saying is that a team with a 3500 average defense should never be pitted against a team with 3000 average defense. In general I would agree because all things being equal the first team should have a much higher war score. If they don’t then there is some other factor at work which is probably exploitable by team 2, which is what I am trying to say. For example beyond the first two teams they have nothing.

Again, we are going to have to agree to disagree. Player level (equivalent to time spent playing) is NOT an indication of player skill or bench. I have been playing chess off and on for 40 years but my ELO would be AT BEST maybe 2.

So where is the developer response to all of this anyway?

I play chess too a bit longer but I won’t use that as the measures here, because I’m seeking fairness…

Go through and read just my posts talking about the game not trying to fend off the extreme examples I’m responding to… you can skip the part about ascension item spawns as well and you should get a clear understanding of what the problem is… and why a level check will only help if added…

You will notice that confused was the first to debate what I was saying, and just chimed in again. Way more acceptable to why it’s not a bad thing…

I get why most don’t understand as they look to the exception to what I’ve said and use it to make an entire reason against…
But that’s not what a stop gap does…

It’s there only to weed out the extremes that we see… Not to re-write what they are currently doing.

Actually, that isnt an anomaly…that’s my point. As I mentioned b4…this is just one of 4 e&P related groups I hang out in. So i see a far wider scope of players than most.

I do agree with you statement regarding the issue. I have said the same b4. I ha e also suggested some solutions…we will see what SG does. As I said…war watching is already greatly improved, so I expect tweaks over wholesale changes.

You say “A”.

I say ok but, what about “B”?

You say No, “A”. Reread!

I say yeah I get “A” but still, “B”.

You say NO! There is no “B” only “A”.

I’m not talking edge cases but real AW experiences.

Anyway, case closed. You stick to “A”.

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Here allow me to show you that A does not exist, and why one might say that even if another person cannot grasp how math actually works and is not subject to interpretation…

Let’s do it so it’s impossible to miss this time…

Instead of uneven teams we start with even so we cannot speculate our way out of the math with a meaningless assertion…

Two even teams. Both have 10 2500 and 10 3500 power defense and equal offensive teams.

Both do even attacks bound by the rules the spawn dictates… so the most you can attack one player is 3 times… both teams attack evenly… But one team with 6 hours remaining flips the other.

One team does not flip.

The team that flips the other just repawned 10 extra 2500 point teams to attack…
the other is forced to attack only the remaining 2500 and 3500 teams.

One clearly has the advantage… There is no alternative to that… zero, zip, nada…
no matter what path you’re going down, it’s not possible to get there… all of them are B and B and B

Maybe you just don’t get where it respawns the “easier” teams for one team… The word easier should have been a signal that it also makes killing those players easier?
Did you say you play checkers? I’ll have to check it out… sounds challenging

Umm, now you’re arguing a completely different scenario.

It works the same it’s math… Easier teams respawn… meaning the lower point teams respawn an extra time.

That’s in every scenario with a flip, every meaning all… Including any possible one you can think of, not excluding the first we discussed…

It offers more lower hanging fruit on the flip…
That’s for every game, no matter the match offering an advantage to the team with less lower hanging fruit…

Tell you what try it 100 different ways… But the rules don’t change…
it’s math…

I finally found the #’s I’ve been looking for, so I can place them side by side without having to estimate how things stack up with each 10 levels played.

I will say seeing the #’s paints the picture far worse than I ever claimed them to be… I was being conservative intentionally to be fair, and remove any bias I might have been accused of…

It actually does match what I saw in my personal experience in adding 5* hero’s, and looking forward as to at what level I should double that #. Not withstanding my 4* comple bench finishes sooner as I must only create 5 less.