Before v31 there was a discussion about including player histories into war matching- which got me thinking- what if, as merc, I would continually join losing alliances? Would I observe win loss ratio 50:50 or would I observe more wins than losses?
Prior to v31, my observation is that Alliance Wars are fundamentally biased. If you observe a winning streak, the system is configured to trigger a loss. The trigger is typically a stronger opponent as well as bad boards are presented making it unlikely to win in combat.
A solution for this is to just repeatedly join a losing alliance- theory- if they lost last time then the system will make it easier to win the next.
Finding the right losing alliance is tricky (search capabilities are highly limited)- generally I look for active alliances, use all flags, and over 1 month established. For good measure, I look also where the war chest is 24/25 so to enhance war loot.
At time of writing, i have had 6 straight wins- so, I want to continue documenting progress here.