Absurdly unbalanced tiles

[klawfinger101]

I have a team, tp 3661, that has no blue or yellow hero. Yet my boards consistently have a ridiculously unbalanced color layout . I have taken several screenshots this morning and can show that I constantly get boards with mostly blue and yellow. It is VERY difficult to prevail in what should be an equal fight with an opponent with comparable team power. When the computer controlling the battle uses it’s “knowledge” of your board to generate an overwhelming advantage for your opponent. There is something definitely wrong with the combat logarithms for such an amazingly unfair situation

[Guy]

Every single person who actually did the math based on screenshots has reported that there is no bias based on the team you bring. It’s all confirmation bias, perceived reality vs. actual reality, that suggests to you that the world (here, the AI, the devs or the computer) is against you. Move tiles around and get the tiles you need. Sometimes you will lose, sometimes you will win. Enjoy the victories and vow to do better after a defeat.

[zephyr1]

@klawfinger101 This is a common perception, as @Guy pointed out, and there are two excellent threads on this topic.

The first explains the math, starting with this post from @Garanwyn:

@Garanwyn

There are a TON of posts complaining about how the game engine is somehow biased against those of us who color stack. I’ve seen lots of screen shots of 5 or 10 or 20 games, along with complaints that the engine can’t possibly be fair based on these (small) samples.

What never seems to get talked about are the actual probabilities, and what we should really expect to happen when we color stack. Which is unfortunate, because the actual probabilities are really informative. Assuming that the game is truly random (which is what the devs claim), then for any color you choose to stack:

1 boards in 5,000 (0.02%) will have no tiles of the color you want

2 boards in 1000 (0.17%) will have only one tile of the color you want

9 boards in 1000 (0.94%) will have only two tiles of the color you want

31 boards in 1000 (3.1%) will have only three tiles of the color you want

77 boards in 1000 (7.7%) will have only four tiles of the color you want

131 boards in 1000 (13.1%) will have only five tiles of the color you want

178 boards in 1000 (17.8%) will have only six tiles of the color you want

So if you’re color stacking, 42.8% of your boards will be EXPECTED to have 6 or fewer tiles (max of 2 matches) of the color you want, assuming everything is really random.

Worse, most of those boards will actually have your color tiles all over the place, meaning you won’t be able to make ANY matches at all in the color you’re stacking. So you should expect that, on average, 4 games out of every 10 are going to be really sucky for the color you’re stacking. And getting three or four really sucky games in a row when color stacking isn’t surprising at all.

We should expect that heavy stacking into a color is at best a 60/40 gamble, and it’s really easy to get burned on a 60/40 gamble.

Note: Math has been updated to account for rejection of all starting boards with one or more matches

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The second has collected extensive data from hundreds of matches and ten thousand plus tiles to determine whether tiles generated are, in fact, random (spoiler: yep):

Color Stacking Fairness Project

#Updated 29 Jan 2019 Raids 101-300 are here Raids 301-500 are here TL;DR (with updated numbers): Verifying whether raid tiles are random when color stacking. Current games seen: 500 Current tiles seen: 17,500 Probability of drawing tiles of stacked-into color: 20.02% 95% Confidence interval: 19.4% to 20.6% Conclusion: Looking completely fair [20190117_203053] Detail: The question of whether SGG adjusts tile probabilities against color stackers in raids is a very common debate on the…

(@Kerridoc @Rook @Coppersky Possible Merge of Topic)

[Rook]

This is a duplicate thread. Please see the links by Zephyr1.